2026 Tropical Weather Discussion

[libertybele]

Not too worried as all they are calling for here is sporadic TS from the bands that will pass over the coastal area's.  The northern breeze is full of dry air so that helps retard growth.   

I look forward to some rain.  We need it.

Way, way to our north -- very hot and humid here with rain just about everyday.  Typical weather pattern for us (though it's hotter than normal).

[catfish1957]

Last 2 GFS runs are interesting....

Early morning one has TD2 disappating off the SE Louisiana coast  in 2-3 days.   Late morning run has same dissipation, but 3-5 days off the SE Texas Coast.

Secondly, everyone should understand that early on in these storms are highly suspect to re-initialization of center of circulation.  In the past 2 frames of the sat loop show seems to be CIC about 50 miles west of where it should be in forecast.  Circulation as a rule also looks more robust, and in fact....   that sure looks like banding already on the east side of the depression.  This tells me that there is some strengthening underway.  Will be very interested in next hour what comes out in upcoming advisory. 

[catfish1957]

20 Jul 10P Advisory

TD2 is now Bertha near the initialization point in earlier advisory.

Path and strength are on path with earlier advisories too.  One bit of good news is that the NHC thinks the flooding rains will mostly stay off shore.  Tropical Storm Watchers and Warnings are generally in place from Morgan City, LA to AL/FL Border.

GFS is in full agreement with NHC projection.  Also are the general path of all the spaghetti models.  All generally start with a NW start, and then a straight westward path after 48 hours.  Storm at this is point is expected to. e slow, with Bertha reaching the Texas coast by Saturday

[catfish1957]

8A CDT Bertha update....

Really not much change since last night.  Very poorly defined center of Bertha looks to be about 125 miles SE of Mobile.  Overall, I am not expected much more strengthening above present 50 mph sustained winds.  Sat data of the Gulf of America shows very solid West to East shearing.  Official track has storm slowly moving NW towards to Louisina SE Coast.  At or near landfall, the NHC expects an eastward track along or off shore of Louisiana.

Not too much change in the GFS model, with expectation that storm dissolves off the South or Southwest Louisiana coast late Friday. In any case, this is about the unhealthiest looking 50 mph Tropical Storm than I have seen in a while. If the gulf churn gets any worse, I can see this storm not even making it to tomorrow., 

[catfish1957]

11 am update:

If this 5 day rain graphic remains accurate, the Gulf coast can count itself as lucky.  Circulation is showing up better on the Visat, but almost all the convection is being torn off with a helluva E->W shear.  In fact some of the heaviest rainfall is WSW of center, about 150 miles south of Morgan City....  easily 200 miles from COC. 

End result based on present data?

2 foot storm surge
Max rain 3"
50 mph max wind.

I think we will all take that.

[Wingnut]

Climate Change grifters are deeply sadden by this no event.

[catfish1957]

Last couple of sat frames?

Bertha looks like broken donut with all the filling (clouds/precipitation) spilling out into the central gulf. If this thing holds together 3 more days like forecast, it'll be on it's own momentum and gumption.

There are some thin whispy feeder bands reaching the FL coast, but they'll strangely be mostly dry

[Wingnut]

Last couple of sat frames?

Bertha looks like broken donut with all the filling (clouds/precipitation) spilling out into the central gulf. If this thing holds together 3 more days like forecast, it'll be on it's own momentum and gumption.

There are some thin whispy feeder bands reaching the FL coast, but they'll strangely be mostly dry

We have been getting some nice rain.  Stopped for now.  Waiting on the next band to fly by.  It is pretty windy.  Or gusty now. I broght the patio furn cushions in so I dont have to hunt the hood for them later.

[catfish1957]

5PM advisory.... 

Bertha has come to life a bit.  Convection around the storm has blossomed this afternoon, and reflective of the upped wind speed up to 60 mph sustained.  Pretty stout for a 29.39 pressure storm.  If you put any faith into NHC prognostication, this "should" be peak strength of the storm.  Personally I am a tad surprised it has grown given the shear permeating most of the northern Gulf.

Second point....   It seems a pretty decent trough (front) is making it down towards the gulf more vigorously than I thought.  Traditionally these in this position, and north of storm often draw the storm northward.  The NHC seems to be sticking to the westward movement, even all the way to Coastal  Texas near Galveston.

Good news also remains, as it appears that most of the heavy rain will stay off shore.  Of course the NHC data only goes out  5 days, so it will be interesting to see how SE TX and SW LA fair, say late weekend, into early next week.

[catfish1957]

22 July 2026 08:00 CDT update


Bertha seems to following the GFS guidance pretty well, and is now positioned about 75 miles south of Biloxi.  Key points this morning:

1.  Path on cue as forecasted.  GFS has gotten so much better the past few years.  Got to wonder how much AI has helped in factoring storm dynamics.
2. COC is almost devoid of convection.  Bertha's weather is mostly about 100 miles SE of low.
3. Sustained winds have dropped to 50 mph.  One interesting point is the NHC must a little more bullish on Bertha keeping together as a storm since Tropical Storm Watches have been extended westward for the entire coast to Port Lavaca, Texas.  The hot of the press GFS has the center moving WSW, with a depression/minimal TS reaching Brownsville this Friday morning.  That path seems too quick, but that is just me eyeballing it.
4. News remains good on rainfall and flooding threat.  All excessive rain seems to confined to the north central gulf. 
5. Of more interest to me right now, is I just saw the last two sat loops that show a pretty healthy Wave with a spin at 25N 70W about 200 miles east of the Bahamas.  Watch that area for possible development, 

[catfish1957]

Now with a couple of frames available on the Vis Sat, I am having a tough time actually making out a COC,  Need about 3 more frames to really think she is dissolving. In any case, almost all the heavy convection is removed to the SW from where the NHC is locating the storm. 

[catfish1957]

22 Jul 2026 11am Bertha update.

Bertha is almost devoid now of any precipitation near it's circulation.  Circular spin very evident, but it is almost naked of any significant cloud cover.  In fact there is a frontal outflow boundry approaching Bertha with more rain.

Storm is right now near the MS/LA border, and from my vantage looks like it is moving more North, than West Northwest.  If this is the case, SE Louisiana and NOLA might see more TS force winds that they originally expected.

KInd of more expecting something from the decoupled blob that has a nice concentration of convection about 100 miles south of Lafayette.  Not seeing any spin to this, but wouldn't be surprised if the NHC reluctantly relocate Bertha's center if it persists and develops.  Actual storm minus convection still has a good concentric spin.  So ,they might call it a different INVEST....  Not 100% sure of their guidelines.

And still the 0600Z GFS has Bertha dissapating tomorrow as it approaches the Texas coast.  I see this being added in the next advisory.

[catfish1957]

22 Jul 2026 5pm Bertha update.

Bertha made landfall in Terribonne parish an hour or 2 ago.  @50mph my guesstimate.  Area is rural, and impact minimal.  She now is down to 45 mph, and seems now to be on course to skirt the south Louisiana coast.  At this exact moment the vis sat shows a 5 mph or so WSW move,  Any future of Bertha depends on whether she is able to re-emerge back in the gulf. If not, I think it dissipates or becomes a remnant low.  If she does, it easily can maintain decent TS strength,.

In any case Bertha is running out of real estate to be much of problem for the western gulf.  In fact, I can't even pick up the circulation on the IR sat spectra.  The sheared precip. previously discussed is not showing any sign of development.  UNLESS...  we see reemergence, and restrengthening.

And counter to what some others may be reporting,  there is no flooding threat.  All the excessive rainfall is expected off shore.

[Cyber Liberty]

22 Jul 2026 5pm Bertha update.

Bertha made landfall in Terribonne parish an hour or 2 ago.  @50mph my guesstimate.  Area is rural, and impact minimal.  She now is down to 45 mph, and seems now to be on course to skirt the south Louisiana coast.  At this exact moment the vis sat shows a 5 mph or so WSW move,  Any future of Bertha depends on whether she is able to re-emerge back in the gulf. If not, I think it dissipates or becomes a remnant low.  If she does, it easily can maintain decent TS strength,.

In any case Bertha is running out of real estate to be much of problem for the western gulf.  In fact, I can't even pick up the circulation on the IR sat spectra.  The sheared precip. previously discussed is not showing any sign of development.  UNLESS...  we see reemergence, and restrengthening.

And counter to what some others may be reporting,  there is no flooding threat.  All the excessive rainfall is expected off shore.

Meanwhile, on another thread, a member is telling us WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!

[Wingnut]

Meanwhile, on another thread, a member is telling us WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!

Marked safe from "We are all gonna die"

[catfish1957]

23 Jul 2026 8AM update

Bertha is hanging on, and may have a short extra leash on life, as the so called COC is now mostly over water.  Right now, maybe 25 miles off the coast from Pecan Island.  Winds are still 45 mph, and I am guessing it will + or 10 mph of that until she reaches the coast, and now the NHC is guessing about Galveston.  And we who live at or near the gulf?.....   45 mph at shore, isn't jack.

OTOH, the GFS, who has been a star for awhile has it dissipating to a remant low this afternoon.   The rain appears to want to be limited to the SE quadrant, and won't be a factor short term.  My biggest fear is sometimes these tropical remnant lows hit the TX coast, travel 200-300 miles inland and stall in the Hill Country.  It's not forecasted that way, nor do I expect it.  However, I have seen this surprisingly pop up in the past before.

One thing working in Bertha's favor is that the convection is now more proximal, meaning a better chance in that respect to stay a storm.  Only one frame  Vis sat is available yet (conversion-night mode), and this is not a healthy storm, and circulation spotty.

Finally, unless something drastically changes, I think impact with minimal.  This will be the last installment, unless something unexpected happens.

[catfish1957]

Parting observation on Bertha and other recent tropical activity....

AI must be masterfully added to Hurricane Models...
The GFS was almost perfect on path and strength.   I know there is a lot not to like about AI, but if it can significantly improve hurricane forecasting, we all win,. 

[Sighlass]

I had dreams wetter than Bertha .... well many years ago anyhoo (and may of/may not, involved an imaginary "Bertha").

[jmyrlefuller]

Meanwhile, on another thread, a member is telling us WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!

Not anymore, he ain't.

[Cyber Liberty]

Not anymore, he ain't.

His "source" was the Daily Mail. 😸

[catfish1957]

26 July 2026 Tropical Weather Update....

Oddity for this time of the year?  GFS has actually has zero tropical lows forecasted threat for the next 15 days.  Today at least, there is a wave near the Lesser Antilles 20N 60W that has paused, and had three flareups of convection.  Nothing expected there, but these "pausing waves" sometimes spin off some tropical lows that are starts to hurricanes. 

And three waves off Africa now?  I think we can safely say we are in the Cape Verde Season.  None vigorous enough to be a concern yet.

[libertybele]

26 July 2026 Tropical Weather Update....

Oddity for this time of the year?  GFS has actually has zero tropical lows forecasted threat for the next 15 days.  Today at least, there is a wave near the Lesser Antilles 20N 60W that has paused, and had three flareups of convection.  Nothing expected there, but these "pausing waves" sometimes spin off some tropical lows that are starts to hurricanes. 

And three waves off Africa now?  I think we can safely say we are in the Cape Verde Season.  None vigorous enough to be a concern yet.

With El Nino I am not too concerned, though I realize that doesn't guarantee that there will be no hurricanes making landfall in the U.S.

Here in SWFL we have seen our ordinary daily rains and thunderstorms, the only difference so far is that our temps are a bit above normal.

[andy58-in-nh]

With El Nino I am not too concerned, though I realize that doesn't guarantee that there will be no hurricanes making landfall in the U.S.

Here in SWFL we have seen our ordinary daily rains and thunderstorms, the only difference so far is that our temps are a bit above normal.

I'm hoping that keeps up. I will be down there in a couple of weeks, house-hunting.

[catfish1957]

With El Nino I am not too concerned, though I realize that doesn't guarantee that there will be no hurricanes making landfall in the U.S.

Here in SWFL we have seen our ordinary daily rains and thunderstorms, the only difference so far is that our temps are a bit above normal.

The ENSO Cycle, El-Nino/Nina' definitely trends with number of hurricanes, and like you said it should be understood for that reason.  2002 was  considered a typical El-Nino year, but Chris  still reached Cat 4 status in the Gulf.

Andrew even was at the tail end of the El-Nino cycle in '92.  Then you have years like 1988, that seem pretty quiet until the likes of one storm like Gilbert was so monstrous that it about covered the entire gulf with convection.

[libertybele]

The ENSO Cycle, El-Nino/Nina' definitely trends with number of hurricanes, and like you said it should be understood for that reason.  2002 was  considered a typical El-Nino year, but Chris  still reached Cat 4 status in the Gulf.

Andrew even was at the tail end of the El-Nino cycle in '92.  Then you have years like 1988, that seem pretty quiet until the likes of one storm like Gilbert was so monstrous that it about covered the entire gulf with convection.

d

Our weather could quickly change in a heartbeat.  August and September are usually our worst months for tropical storms and hurricanes.