2026 Tropical Weather Discussion

[libertybele]

Not too worried as all they are calling for here is sporadic TS from the bands that will pass over the coastal area's.  The northern breeze is full of dry air so that helps retard growth.   

I look forward to some rain.  We need it.

Way, way to our north -- very hot and humid here with rain just about everyday.  Typical weather pattern for us (though it's hotter than normal).

[catfish1957]

Last 2 GFS runs are interesting....

Early morning one has TD2 disappating off the SE Louisiana coast  in 2-3 days.   Late morning run has same dissipation, but 3-5 days off the SE Texas Coast.

Secondly, everyone should understand that early on in these storms are highly suspect to re-initialization of center of circulation.  In the past 2 frames of the sat loop show seems to be CIC about 50 miles west of where it should be in forecast.  Circulation as a rule also looks more robust, and in fact....   that sure looks like banding already on the east side of the depression.  This tells me that there is some strengthening underway.  Will be very interested in next hour what comes out in upcoming advisory. 

[catfish1957]

20 Jul 10P Advisory

TD2 is now Bertha near the initialization point in earlier advisory.

Path and strength are on path with earlier advisories too.  One bit of good news is that the NHC thinks the flooding rains will mostly stay off shore.  Tropical Storm Watchers and Warnings are generally in place from Morgan City, LA to AL/FL Border.

GFS is in full agreement with NHC projection.  Also are the general path of all the spaghetti models.  All generally start with a NW start, and then a straight westward path after 48 hours.  Storm at this is point is expected to. e slow, with Bertha reaching the Texas coast by Saturday

[catfish1957]

8A CDT Bertha update....

Really not much change since last night.  Very poorly defined center of Bertha looks to be about 125 miles SE of Mobile.  Overall, I am not expected much more strengthening above present 50 mph sustained winds.  Sat data of the Gulf of America shows very solid West to East shearing.  Official track has storm slowly moving NW towards to Louisina SE Coast.  At or near landfall, the NHC expects an eastward track along or off shore of Louisiana.

Not too much change in the GFS model, with expectation that storm dissolves off the South or Southwest Louisiana coast late Friday. In any case, this is about the unhealthiest looking 50 mph Tropical Storm than I have seen in a while. If the gulf churn gets any worse, I can see this storm not even making it to tomorrow., 

[catfish1957]

11 am update:

If this 5 day rain graphic remains accurate, the Gulf coast can count itself as lucky.  Circulation is showing up better on the Visat, but almost all the convection is being torn off with a helluva E->W shear.  In fact some of the heaviest rainfall is WSW of center, about 150 miles south of Morgan City....  easily 200 miles from COC. 

End result based on present data?

2 foot storm surge
Max rain 3"
50 mph max wind.

I think we will all take that.