'Point of no return': A research firm says the oil market is headed for a dire turning point by earl

[libertybele]

'Point of no return': A research firm says the oil market is headed for a dire turning point by early June

    The oil market could reach a grim turning point in the next few weeks, HFI Research says.

    The firm sees "real panic" hitting crude markets as oil inventories run out.

    Previously, it speculated that panic buying and hoarding could send crude prices past $150 a barrel.

Market watchers have puzzled over the reasons for oil's resilience in recent weeks, but things could be about to change for the worse, one research firm is warning.

HFI Research, an investment research firm with a focus on energy markets, said it sees the oil market hitting a major turning point in the first week of June. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through that time, oil markets will likely descend into "real panic," it said, suggesting that nations around the world could start panic-buying and hoarding oil as oil inventories hit rock bottom.

The scenario — which HFI said wasn't its base-case — is contrary to where most forecasters think the crude market is headed. The firm pointed to more optimistic oil forecasts about how the market would soon normalize, but those predictions are likely fueled by "psychological biases" in the oil market, it said.

"It seems clear to me that if the Strait of Hormuz is still closed by the first week of June, we will see real panic," the firm wrote in a Substack post on Monday of the coming turning point in markets.

"Sellside is still assuming some return to normality by June to avoid tank bottom, but the math is what it is."

Oil prices have spiked to a three-year high as markets weigh the severity of the supply disruptions in the Middle East. Brent crude, the international benchmark, has remained solidly above the $100 mark for most of the past month, a testament to the scale of the disruption, even as the conflict appears at a standstill for now.

Markets have been shielded from greater pain stemming from the supply disruption, largely due to the US and other nations drawing down their excess crude stores.

In late April, HFI predicted that the US would deplete its oil stocks within 8 weeks, implying it would run out of excess supply by the end of June.

The US had 1.6 billion barrels of oil and petroleum products in its stocks the week ending May 8, down 67 million from levels at the start of April, according to the latest update from the Energy Information Agency........

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/sectors/energy/articles/point-no-return-research-firm-123639885.html

[Fishrrman]

I realize that a standard reply to this post will be "petroleum is fungible".

But what if the United States and Canada could "seal themselves off" from the rest of the world market, both as producers and consumers?

Again, I don't care about "fungible".
Is it possible?

I sense that with the right controls, it could be.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

I realize that a standard reply to this post will be "petroleum is fungible".

But what if the United States and Canada could "seal themselves off" from the rest of the world market, both as producers and consumers?

Again, I don't care about "fungible".
Is it possible?

I sense that with the right controls, it could be.

Hell, I think Texas should seal it off from the rest of the US.

Then see how the pantywaists of the East and West Coast feel about their energy costs

[Smokin Joe]

Hell, I think Texas should seal it off from the rest of the US.

Then see how the pantywaists of the East and West Coast feel about their energy costs

I'd love for us to build another refinery up here.
I feel the same way about the way the East Coast and West Coast (and not a few blue cities in between).

If push ever came to shove, jam the roads, pull the plug, close the valves.
But theirs is already more expensive than the center of the country, and that wound is self-inflicted.