Will be honest I don't totally trust drought monitors because I think it's the NOAA one seems oriented to a global warming narrative.
Drought is complex. You got the top soil and the subsoil layer in that. The top may be great but the subsoil reserve may be bone dry, and vice versa. Depends on how far down you want to measure too. The maps can be misleading if you have a wide discrepancy between the two.
It all depends on your summer too. If it gets hot and dry for a long period you may need that reserve, otherwise not. Even a good reserve may not matter if it gets hot and dry too fast and the roots can't reach down fast enough.
