WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧
@WarMonitor3
My unfiltered opinion on the war in Iran so far:
First of all I want to mention that US operations have gone incredibly successfully from a military standpoint. This statement can be proved via the fact the US has largely disabled the Iranian ballistic missile infastructure has gained complete aerial supremacy over Iran so much so it can confidently fly bombers and aircraft with no confirmed losses, it has destroyed the majority of the Iranian navy and airforce and has along with the Israelis capitulated the main command and control nodes and individuals of the regime, including the former Supreme leader and many other top officials. The Iranian regime is militarily desperate and that is why it is bombing its former neighbours and also attempting to mine and shut the strait of Hormuz. One thing for sure is that Iran's will be military degraded for year to come. This does not mean it's ready to collapse, but it should not be underplayed the fact the US has pretty much blitzed a regional power with a miltiary size of over a million manpower, thats impressive. And despite the loses of US military personnel being incredibly sad, their comparable numbers to the Iranians paint a picture of complete military dominance.
Secondly I want to dicuss where I think this conflict will go and how long it will last. The strikes in iran continue to increase in their intensity especially those targeted and underground infastrure of the Iranian regime, however eventually this will have to come to an end. The initial stated goal of regime change to me appears more unlikely as the conflict rages on, The assassinated elite of the Iranian regime have been replaced by many accounts by an more extremist group with deeper ties to the security state. Israeli strikes have been increasingly focusing on attempting to destroy the regimes ability to repress civilian mass unrest, with strikes on miltia checkpoints bases and a particular focus on going after police units involved in putting down of unrest in January. Despite this Iranians will be the ones responsible for regime change, and from what I can see there is still an element of hesitance for this due to the horrible consequences if it does not go their way. There is only so much the US and Israel can do from the air I highly doubt there will be any such ground attempts like we saw In Iraq of Afghanistan, the window is closing and the regime does not appear to be in the chaos that would be needed for such action. Despite this their capabilities are the most destroyed they have ever been and I really hope the Iranians can be supported to take their fate into their own hands. It is increasingly becoming more likely to me that after a few more weeks of strikes a negotiated settlement with take place, the shutting of the strait of Hormuz has definetly sped up this process as the oil giants and pressure mounts on Washington, a clear exit plan is needed preferably a resolution with tough negotiations settlements.
Thirdly the interesting situation in the strait of Hormuz has provided a time limit and pressure on Washington to open trade, Russia is capatailsing on rising oil prices, and partners such as China and India are getting increasingly unhappy with the effect of conflict on this trade. Operations in the strait of Hormuz are not as simple as they are stated, you cannot just deploy a large naval armada to escort ships on their own, they will definetly be targeted by Iranian onshore anti ship and drone capabilites, if a ship if hit and sunk this would provide devastating pr loss for the US and Europe and the ability for the Iranians to claim a sort of victory, in order to avoid this the US and Nato would have to continue a widespread suppression campaign from the air hunting drone and anti ship capacity until it is severely degraded which is going on right now, also the possibility of deploying a large marine contingent to surrounding islands in order to fully secure the strait. This all however represents an escalation of the conflict with boots on the ground, but to be honest I don't see any other miltiary solution.
To me if regime change is not possible Iran should be continued to be struck until it come to the negotiation table with serious concessions, anything short of that would of been just a delaying of Iranian nuclear proliferation rather than the long term solution Trump has sort to this problem, we cannot start a war in the Middle East every 10 years because Iran is getting close to nukes again. The risk here is being dragged into a longer conflict over the strait of Hormuz, which serves nobody if regime change is not possible then a long term concession on Iran should be the next goal.
-WM
11:55 AM · Mar 16, 2026 · 388.9K Views
https://x.com/WarMonitor3/status/2033588074194612628
