Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 5, 2026
Mostly Headlines:
US, Ukrainian, and Russian delegations continued trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi on February 5 ...
The Kremlin is looking for new narratives to try to convince the United States and Europe to not agree to security guarantees for Ukraine ...
Lavrov implied that Russia's demand for Ukrainian “neutrality” aims to turn Ukraine into a pro-Russian proxy state ...
The Kremlin continues to reject the parts of the initial US-proposed 28-point peace plan as well as the latest US-Ukrainian-European 20-point peace plan as insufficient to address Russia's demands about minority rights in Ukraine ...
Lavrov attempted to portray Russia's adherence to the short-term energy strike ceasefire as an indicator of Russia's interest in good-faith negotiations, even as the Kremlin has routinely used such ceasefires to stockpile weapons for subsequent large-scale strikes ...
The Kremlin has used its support for short-term ceasefires to try to portray Russia as acting in good faith while consistently rejecting US and Ukrainian calls for a longer or permanent moratorium on long-range strikes against civilian infrastructure ...
US and Russian officials on the sidelines of the Abu Dhabi peace talks have reportedly discussed bilateral military relations, including measures to informally extend the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) that expired on February 5 ...
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) and Russian officials are using threats of escalation likely to push the United States to renew New START on terms that benefit not only Russia but also the People's Republic of China (PRC) ...
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on February 5 that Russian President Vladimir Putin and PRC President Xi Jinping discussed the “negative consequences” of the end of New START during their February 4 video call ...
Ukrainian forces recently conducted FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile strikes against the Kapustin Yar launch site in Astrakhan Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on February 5 that Ukrainian forces conducted a series of strikes against the Kapustin Yar site (approximately 430 kilometers from the Ukrainian-Russian international border) with Ukrainian-produced long-range weapons, including Flamingo missiles, in January 2026.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck hangar-type buildings, where Russian forces prepare intercontinental and medium-range ballistic missile launches. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the strike caused various degrees of damage to some buildings at the site, but significantly damaged one hangar. Denys Shtilierman, the co-owner and chief designer of Ukraine's Fire Point defense industrial company that produces the Flamingo missiles, posted footage on February 5 reportedly showing recent Flamingo missile launches, including against Kapustin Yar.
Russian forces launched their November 2024 and January 2026 Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) strikes against Ukraine from Kapustin Yar.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov reported on February 5 that the first group of officially authorized Starlink terminals are operational within the Ukrainian military and that Russian Starlinks cannot operate within Ukraine.Fedorov noted the process to verify Ukrainian Starlinks is ongoing. Several Russian milbloggers complained that Russian forces no longer could use terminals and voiced concerns about the effects that the loss of Starlink capabilities could have on the battlefield.
The commander of a Ukrainian unmanned systems brigade reported on February 5 that Russian forces had accumulated a significant number of Starlinks recently and that the terminals provided Russian forces with stable interunit communications.
The commander stated that Russian forces began integrating Starlinks to control drones, but that efforts to block Russian Starlinks will deny Russian forces the ability to conduct reconnaissance and strike missions and communication between groups and complicate Russian offensive operations. The commander noted that the recent blocks on Russian terminals have not “brought down” Russian forces, but have caused Russian forces significant losses.
Russian forces may not be able to conduct their BAI campaign at the same tempo and depth as in recent weeks without Starlink terminals. Russian forces have recently used Starlink-enabled drones to conduct real time targeting and extend the ranges on drones for strikes against moving targets like trains and against Ukrainian vehicles along the E-50 Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad highway in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Russian forces will likely struggle to maintain this BAI campaign at the same intensity levels in the near-term unless Russian forces are able to find workarounds to the blocks or adapt new technological solutions to replace Starlink.
Russia and Ukraine conducted a civilian prisoner and prisoner of war (POW) exchange on February 5 following trilateral US-Ukrainian-Russian negotiations in Abu Dhabi .
Russian President Vladimir Putin is using the 2026 Year of the Unity of the Peoples of Russia to frame Russia as a multiethnic and multireligious state united around the ongoing war effort ...
Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov appointed Taras Chmut to represent the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) on the supervisory board of the Ukrainian Defense Procurement Agency (DPA) ...
Belarusian manufacturers continue to support the Kremlin's war efforts by evading sanctions and procuring parts from the People's Republic of China (PRC) and North Korea for the Belarusian and Russian defense industrial bases (DIBs) ...
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-5-2026/
