JoNova November 2nd, 2025
Only a few schmuck countries are even trying anymore
Ten years ago 196 countries signed legally binding pledges to fix the weather. Every five years they agreed they would update their plans, and the plans could only go upwards, and never retreat.
So here we are, with a week to go before the COP30 party starts again, but this time only 64 countries have bothered to update their plan.
The best guess is that the UN is on target to reach cuts of 10% instead of the 57% cut they said the world needed to stop a 1.5°C rise by 2035.
What does legally binding mean? — Turns out, not much.
Most countries fail to submit new climate pledges ahead of summit
By Matt McGrath, BBC
Recently drafted climate plans from scores of countries fall drastically short of what is needed to stave off the worst effects of climate breakdown, analysis has shown.
Only 64 countries have submitted new plans to cut carbon, the UN says, despite all being required to do so ahead of next month’s COP30 summit. Taken together, these plans would cut carbon by only about 10% by 2035 compared with 2019 levels. This is only about a sixth of the drop in global emissions needed to limit global heating to 1.5C.
To keep that goal alive will require steep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, up to 57% by 2035, according to the UN last year.
These include around 30% of global emissions, which incredibly includes the US, because Joe Biden, or one of his minders, put in an update early. Given that the US emits 14% of global emissions and is not going to be meeting any agreement, except accidentally, the current Paris agreement covers what’s left, which is 17% of global emissions.
Most countries are not even going through the motions of setting pretend targets that they have no hope of meeting. That’s how little they care. Though the EU, riven with political strife, is still arguing over how ambitious to make their commitment. By the time the US is officially out, the EU may be back in.
But at this point, even the UN effectively admits defeat on the 1.5°C target
“One thing is already clear: we will not be able to contain the global warming below 1.5 °C in the next few years. Overshooting is now inevitable. Which means that we’re going to have a period, bigger or smaller, with higher or lower intensity, above 1.5 °C in the years to come.”
More:
https://joannenova.com.au/2025/11/paris-crumbles-only-a-third-of-countries-even-bothered-to-update-their-5-year-plan/
