Aizenberg
@Aizenberg55
Gaza Fatality Analysis: Latest Findings from Hamas & IDF Data
IntroductionAs of September 25, 2025, Hamas claims that 65,400 people have been killed in Gaza by the war since 10/7. Over time, it has released eleven separate lists of names, most recently on August 4. These lists have been “cleaned up” by removing obvious early errors such as missing and false IDs, yet the core problems remain: no identification of combatants, no cause, place, or date of death for anyone (though Hamas appears to maintain this data), and no effort to separate natural deaths, deaths caused by IDF action, and fatalities caused by Hamas.
This latest analysis builds on two years of close monitoring of fatality data, beginning with my debunking in December 2023 of the false claim that “70% of those killed in Gaza are women and children,” which is now widely recognized as a Hamas falsification. I have analyzed every major study and investigative report on Gaza fatalities, reviewed each of the Hamas-published lists in detail, and scrutinized and debunked preposterous claims of inflated casualty numbers. I have cross-checked these figures with IDF statements, demographic data, and media investigations. The goal is to strip away the noise and arrive at a more grounded estimate. The chart below summarizes the results of this latest analysis.
Unpacking Hamas' Headline NumberHamas’ headline figure of 65,400 deaths is presented as if all were war fatalities caused by the IDF. In reality, the number certainly includes thousands of natural deaths and cases of infant mortality. Pre-10/7 data from the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics show that Gaza records about 6,000 natural deaths and 800 infant deaths annually. For the first eighteen months of the war Hamas insisted that every name on its lists represented a war casualty, but in April 2025 it quietly admitted otherwise. After removing a set of names from its rolls, Zaher al-Wahidi of Hamas' Ministry of Health conceded to Sky News that “a lot of people… died a natural death”—an extraordinary admission after months of categorical denials.
While some natural deaths appear to have been dropped a few months ago, Hamas has never produced a separate record of natural deaths, even after nearly two years. If such a list existed, Hamas would have every incentive to release it, since it would show that total fatalities were even higher than the 65,400 they already claim and bolster their claim that all deaths listed are war related. The obvious explanation for its long absence is simple: no such list exists, because these deaths were never separated out in the first place going back to October 2023.
There is also clear evidence that non-war deaths are part of the count. Documented cases include victims of vehicle accidents, a wall collapse, and illnesses. Examples of these deaths placed on the Hamas lists have been confirmed through painstaking social-media analysis. The conclusion is unmistakable: Hamas has inflated its fatality list by sweeping in virtually every death in Gaza and assigning it to Israel. . . .
10:20 AM · Sep 29, 2025 · 286.9K Views
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