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Offline rangerrebew

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So far, NOAA’s ‘above normal’ hurricane season prediction is a bust
« on: September 28, 2025, 06:58:42 am »
hurricanes
So far, NOAA’s ‘above normal’ hurricane season prediction is a bust
10 hours ago Anthony Watts

Remember this from 23 May 2025?

NOAA’s outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms . Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes, including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 178 kmh/111 mph or higher).

NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.

As of today September 27th, 2025 zero hurricanes have made landfall in the United states during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. The season runs from June 1st to November 30th. So, we have just 2 months to go and we have already passed the peak climatology for hurricanes in the Atlantic.

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is climatologically around September 10th, a date when ocean and atmospheric conditions are typically most conducive to storm development and intensification due to warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear. While storm activity can begin before and after this date, with the overall season running from June 1st to November 30th, the period between mid-August and mid-October generally experiences the most activity.

While the season has produced five named tropical storms and three hurricanes so far with the names Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, Erin, and Humberto ….none classified as hurricanes, with Category 1 or higher (with sustained winds of 74 mph or more) have struck US soil.

And, it doesn’t look like Humberto will make US landfall either.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/09/27/so-far-noaas-above-normal-hurricane-season-is-a-bust/
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Offline rangerrebew

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Re: So far, NOAA’s ‘above normal’ hurricane season prediction is a bust
« Reply #1 on: September 28, 2025, 07:01:14 am »
Maybe climate change can have savings accounts where they can store energy from little storms to form a booger banger of a storm for later. *****rollingeyes*****
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The unity of government which constitutes you one people is also now dear to you. It is justly so, for it is a main pillar in the edifice of your real independence, the support of your tranquility at home, your peace abroad; of your safety; of your prosperity; of that very liberty which you so highly prize. But as it is easy to foresee that, from different causes and from different quarters, much pains will be taken, many artifices employed to weaken in your minds the conviction of this truth.  George Washington - Farewell Address

Offline andy58-in-nh

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Re: So far, NOAA’s ‘above normal’ hurricane season prediction is a bust
« Reply #2 on: September 28, 2025, 07:34:00 am »
Every year, they do exactly the same thing. They always predict an above normal hurricane season and it never happens. The same is true of their climate predictions. If you look at their forecast for months ahead they almost always predict above normal temperatures for the entire continental United States. Once again, they are always wrong. And, of course, they never point it out in retrospect.
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Offline libertybele

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Re: So far, NOAA’s ‘above normal’ hurricane season prediction is a bust
« Reply #3 on: September 28, 2025, 07:48:24 am »
Lol...you can thank us, we spent money on hurricane impact windows and doors along with accordion shutters.  So far we haven't had to use them. 
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