Regime change for Arctic sea ice
The Observatory
22 Aug 2025
Written By Dr David Whitehouse
The decline in Arctic sea-ice has become a poster child for climate change. Who can forget that Al Gore won a Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 for, among other failed climate predictions, saying that the Arctic sea-ice would vanish in the following 5–7 years. It didn’t, and in fact, as re-emphasised in a new research paper, it stabilised.
Stern (2025), writing in Geophysical Research Letters, says that this stabilisation amounts to a regime shift in the behaviour of Arctic ice.
Since satellite observations began in 1979 until 2007 there was an approximately linear decline in September sea-ice extent. In September 2007 it had the largest year-on-year decline in the satellite data record. But 2007 marked a change.
Since then, there have been yearly fluctuations, but no long-term decline. When this was pointed out by so-called sceptics as some kind of ice-pause, the reaction from climate alarmists was, well, predictable. But the sceptics were proved right, as they were with the global temperature hiatus.
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