I thought Ohio State was unbeatable and yet Indiana beat them. My money is on either of those two, but my heart is with Texas Tech (amazing what oil money can buy).

Here's the wrench in the whole system: last year, every single team that got a bye week lost. Now, granted, the system has been tweaked so that the conference champions don't automatically get the bye, which led to some weaker automatic bids getting those byes. But there's something to be said about a team fresh off a victory, facing a team that hasn't played in a month and will almost certainly have rust.
Indiana and Ohio State are the two undefeateds. OSU bulldozed a lot of their opponents. Could either one break that pattern? Ohio State benefited from that last year and now the shoe is on the other foot, so to speak.
Personally, I'm rooting for Indiana as the traditional favorite (love what Cignetti has done there). My heart is with James Madison, though. From FCS to the CFP in as short as they've had is an impressive feat and I always love a good Cinderella run. Nothing against Tulane; I've always thought the American is woefully underrated all the way back to the UCF snub back in '18. If Oregon chokes like they did last year, it'll make me smile.
As for Alabama and Miami. Well, let's face it. This tournament would be better with just eight teams. #9 and #10 both had major question marks, and so did pretty much all of the other potential teams that could have claimed those seeds. Can you look at Notre Dame, which lost to Miami, and say they deserve it better? Could you look at the entire clusterbuck that was the ACC, which didn't even let Miami into their title game and now has as their champion five-loss Duke?! And then you have three-loss Texas, which admittedly came on strong late and let's admit it, Arch Manning made a lot of progress this season after an UGLY start. Who else? BYU? That conference title loss pretty much disqualified them unfortunately, and if BYU's history is any indication, they probably wouldn't have gone too far anyway.
But if letting a weaker-than-usual Alabama in as a 9 seed is what I have to get to see two mid-majors in the playoffs, I can live with that consequence, especially after they didn't get in last year.