Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 3, 2025US Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged that Russian President Vladimir Putin's theory of victory and negotiating tactics assume that Russia can outlast the West and Ukraine in a war of attrition. Rubio stated on December 2 in an interview with Fox News that Putin appears to be the “most difficult” party in the peace negotiations process.
Rubio amplified Putin's recent statement that Russia will “achieve its objectives” no matter the cost or timeline and noted that this is Putin's “actual mentality” about his war in Ukraine. Putin's long held theory of victory for the war in Ukraine is predicated on the assumption that the Russian military and economy can outlast and overcome both Western support for Ukraine and Ukraine's own ability to continue defending itself against Russian aggression.
Rubio stated that it is not realistic for Russia to continue its war for another “four or five years” and emphasized that Russia holds less Ukrainian territory currently than it did in the first few months of the full scale invasion in early 2022. Ukrainian forces have notably retaken over 50 percent of the territory that Russian forces have seized since 2022, and Russia's economy is facing several issues that will likely continue to affect its ability to continue a war of attrition in the medium to long term.
[
Rubio appears to be conceding that Russia [with its minuscule GDP], is stronger and more able in war than the US and Europe combined. Therefore, accepting Russia's terms is the best deal the West can get, in the face of the Russian juggernaut. Rubio, defeatest. ]
Russian officials continue to falsely frame recent Russian advances on the battlefield as an indication that a Russian victory is imminent and inevitable. Russian Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov stated on December 3 that Russian forces’ successes had a “positive impact” on the December 2 meeting between Putin and a US delegation in Moscow and that Russian advances have given the West a “more accurate assessment” of the “paths to achieving” peace in Ukraine.
Russian State Duma International Affairs Committee Chairperson Leonid Slutsky claimed on December 3 that Western officials are changing their negotiating positions given Russia's successes on the front.
The Kremlin's claims about, and overinflation of, Russian battlefield gains and their impact on the negotiating process support Putin's theory of victory for a protracted war. Putin and other high ranking Kremlin officials have recently intensified their cognitive warfare efforts that aggrandize battlefield claims to convince the United States that Russia is winning in Ukraine, such that Ukraine and the West should acquiesce to Russian demands now during negotiations.
Kremlin officials continued to refuse to publicly discuss the outcomes of the December 2 US-Russia meeting, as ISW previously forecast. Russian State Duma International Affairs Committee First Deputy Head Alexei Chepa stated on December 3 that Russia is holding the talks with the United States “confidentially” to prevent outside forces from “exerting pressure” on the negotiations.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov similarly stated that Russia will conduct the negotiations “in silence” and claimed that the negotiations will be more successful if they are private.
Peskov also claimed that Russia hopes the United States will adhere to Russia's preference not to divulge information about the negotiations. ISW previously assessed that the Kremlin was preparing to refrain from publicly discussing the outcomes of the December 2 US-Russia meeting, to obfuscate Russia's rejection of the US-Ukrainian peace proposal.
The Kremlin is reigniting narratives that Odessa City is a Russian city. Russian State Duma Deputy Dmitry Pevtsov claimed on December 3 that Russia will likely resolve the war with the “pseudo-state” Ukraine through military means so that Russians can go to their “ancestral lands” in Odessa City.
Former Russian Prime Minister Sergei Stepashin claimed on November 26 that he would like Odessa and Mykolaiv cities to be a part of Russia through “voluntary” means, not military means.
Russian claims regarding Odessa and Mykolaiv cities come against the backdrop of Russian President Vladimir Putin's December 2 threat that Russia could cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea - possibly to set conditions to seize territory on Ukraine's Black Sea coast in Odessa and Mykolaiv oblasts.
These recent Russian territorial claims and threats against the Black Sea region are not new or isolated, but follow repeated statements in the past, including from Putin himself.
Putin claimed in December 2023 that Russia historically controlled the Black Sea region and that Odessa City is a “Russian” city.”
Russian officials last ignited their narrative that Odessa City is a Russian city during the height of the April 2025 peace negotiations, likely in an attempt to paint Russia as prepared to protract the war and seize even more territory from Ukraine, such that Ukraine and the West should give in to Russia's seemingly more limited demands now.
Russian officials’ renewal of these narratives in December 2025 likely aims to support the Kremlin's ongoing cognitive warfare effort to portray Russia as capable of protracting the war to achieve its goals and a Russian victory as ultimately inevitable.
The Kremlin may also aim to use repeated narratives over the years about Odessa City to set conditions to justify renewed aggression against Ukraine following a future peace settlement in the name of protecting ethnic Russians and “ancestral” Russian lands.
ISW continues to assess that Russia is not in a position to cross the Dnipro River, make significant advances westward, and seize Odessa City, however.
Russian forces achieved the tactical breakthrough northeast and east of Hulyaipole in mid-November 2025, likely in part by concentrating and committing a force grouping comparable in size to the one operating in the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya direction ...
Ukrainian officials reported in November 2025 that the Russian military command committed between 170,000 to 220,000 troops to the Pokrovsk direction ...
High-ranking Kremlin officials continue to set conditions to justify potential future Russian aggression against Moldova and the Baltics. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed on December 3 that authorities in the Baltic states and Moldova are passing “racist” laws and are “discriminating” against the Russian population.
Lavrov’s statement notably mirrors the narratives that the Kremlin used to try to justify its invasions of Ukraine. Russian officials have long applied the Kremlin's informational playbook used against Ukraine to threaten Moldova as well as North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Finland.
ISW continues to assess that Russia has entered a “Phase Zero” effort that aims to set informational and psychological conditions to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia conflict in the future.[30]
The Kremlin is attempting to mobilize Russian and Belarusian civil societies, including Belarusian organizations and the Russian Orthodox Church, to garner support for the war in Ukraine and influence campaigns globally. Russian President Vladimir Putin met with volunteers involved in humanitarian aid deliveries in Russia and occupied Ukraine as part of the state-affiliated #MyVmeste (#WeAreTogether) international forum for civic participation on December 3.
Putin spoke with a veteran from occupied Donetsk Oblast who is currently involved in providing supplies to Russian servicemembers in Ukraine, and the veteran asked Putin to expand the forum's operations in Russia's “border regions,” likely referring to regions bordering Ukraine as well as areas of occupied Ukraine. Putin also offered state support to a volunteer who sought to create a civil society initiative that aims to unite family members of Russian servicemembers.
Putin also stated that he will talk with Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilev about a proposal from a physician at the only Russian Orthodox Church's hospital, which has been treating Russian servicemembers fighting in the Pokrovsk direction and training volunteers on tactical medical treatment. The physician stated that the hospital trained over 8,000 volunteers and would like to restart a 19th and 20th century-era movement that provided battlefield treatment in occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and Crimea. The physician asked for government funding and Kremlin support to open the movement's branches in all Russian regions and occupied Ukraine.
Putin also spoke to a Belarusian Paralympian and the founder of a charitable foundation based in Belarus that supports occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. The Paralympian claimed that the foundation remained operational despite US sanctions, that many Russian volunteers travel to Belarus to support the foundation, and that the foundation is opening a rehabilitation center in Borisov, Belarus, for children who sustained injuries from mine explosions ...
Putin also spoke to the founder of the BRICS Youth Council, who discussed how Russia sent volunteers to India and announced that the Russia-BRICS project office approved the creation of the BRICS Youth Council ...
ISW also assessed that Russia would leverage its control over Belarus to augment Russia's war effort and the Union State framework as a model to expand Russian influence in the former Soviet Union.
Ukraine's European allies continue to provide military aid and support to Ukraine. Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide announced on December 3 that Norway, Germany, Poland, and the Netherlands will provide 2 packages totaling $500 million to Ukraine through the Prioritized Ukrainian Requirements List (PURL) initiative, which funds NATO states’ purchases of US-made weapons for Ukraine.[
Eide noted that Germany and Poland will provide 1 package, and Germany and the Netherlands will provide the second. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul stated that Germany will provide $200 million toward the packages, which will provide Ukraine with essential supplies, including air defense equipment and ammunition.
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-3-2025/
