Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 7, 2025
Excerpts:
Russian forces continue to advance in the Pokrovsk direction, and are reportedly extending logistics to southern Pokrovsk. Geolocated footage published on November 6 and 7 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced within northeastern and to the eastern outskirts of Pokrovsk as well as in southern Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk) and north of Myrnohrad ...
A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces reached the northwestern, northern, and northeastern outskirts of Pokrovsk ... Russian forces seized Rih (immediately east of Pokrovsk) and Rodynske (north of Pokrovsk), advanced southwest of Krasnyi Lyman and Rodynske, and advanced into eastern Rivne (east of Pokrovsk) ... fighting is ongoing in Rodynske, however ... Russian forces are attempting to drive trucks and motorcycles into southern Pokrovsk to deliver supplies and that these attempts mark the first time that Russian forces have begun operating vehicles in Pokrovsk.
Russian forces have been conducting logistics into Pokrovsk primarily with drones ... Russian forces have reduced their activity and the frequency of their movements within Pokrovsk in order to minimize losses as Russian forces await reinforcements ... Russian forces have unsuccessfully attacked Myrnohrad from the east several times and assessed that Russian forces will likely attack the town from a different direction in the near future ... Russian forces began attacking Myrnohrad from the west on November 7 ... Russian forces raised a flag at the Pokrovsk City Council building in central Pokrovsk, but that Ukrainian forces counterattacked and recaptured and cleared the building ... Russian forces established an observation post at the city council building before Ukrainian forces recaptured it.
Layoffs at Russia's primary tank manufacturer, Uralvagonzavod (UVZ), indicate that Russia may be struggling to balance civilian and defense industrial needs as economic restrictions increasingly degrade Russia's economic performance. Yekaterinburg local news outlet E1 reported on November 6, citing employee-provided documents, that UVZ plans to lay off up to 10% of employees by February 2026 and implement a hiring freeze.
UVZ employees told E1 that the reduction in staff amounts to up to 50% of total employees for most departments. UVZ’s press service stated on November 6 that the manufacturer is “streamlining management and administration expenses“ and denied reports of a hiring freeze.
UVZ announced on October 10 that it will shift some employees to a four-day work week starting on December 15, citing declining demand for civilian vehicle production.
UVZ is Russia's sole producer of modern tanks, therefore it is noteworthy that recent civilian shift reductions and planned factory layoffs may be impacting a key Defense Industrial Base (DIB) enterprise and potentially reducing the production of Russian tanks.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) may have deprioritized tank production to shift to a more drone-centric and dismounted infantry-based force that employs light vehicles such as buggies and motorcycles for mobility, rather than armored fighting vehicles (AFVs).
Drone innovations throughout the war and the creation of kill zones, in which any tanks or other AFVs are prime targets, have rendered armored vehicles less effective for Russia's tactics to advance, which rely on mass infantry assaults, infiltration missions, motorcycles and small vehicles, and drone strikes.
Sanctions and restrictions on Russian oil exports may be hindering the Kremlin's attempts to make capital investments in the Russian DIB at the expense of civilian production. Russian President Vladimir Putin implicitly acknowledged the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy on October 23.
The Kremlin notably also plans to decrease its defense budget to 38% of total expenditures in 2026, down from 41 percent in 2025, as it plans to increase the value-added tax (VAT) likely to fund defense expenditures.
The Russian government may be attempting to shield the Russian DIB from the slowdown affecting civilian industry, and the reported UVZ layoffs indicate that Russia's widespread economic problems could affect defense production. The reported UVZ layoffs suggest that the Russian DIB may not be able to drive economic growth and that the Kremlin will need to further redirect resources to the DIB from civilian industry.
ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is likely attempting to make investment capital available to the DIB, amid a lack of demand for investment capital in civilian industries.
The Ukrainian defense industrial base (DIB) continues efforts to develop local arms production and export capabilities. Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Oleksandr Kamyshin stated on November 7 that Ukraine will make its DIB self-financing through profits that managed arms exports generate.
Kamyshin stated that Ukraine's DIB has an annual production capacity of $35 billion dollars in 2025 and can reach $60 billion in 2026, over $35 billion of which will be for long-range capabilities.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal announced on November 7 that Ukraine and Sweden finalized an agreement to localize the production of Swedish Gripen fighter jets by 2033.European authorities continue to report unidentified drone incursions into NATO airspace. The Swedish Civil Aviation Administration (LFV) reported that there were reports of at least one unidentified drone flying over the Gothenburg Landvetter Airport on the evening of November 6, forcing authorities to divert or cancel over a dozen flights.
A Swedish police spokesperson told Reuters that authorities are investigating suspected aviation sabotage.
Belgian authorities temporarily closed the Brussels Airport on the evening of November 6 after Skeyes air traffic controller observed an unidentified drone, marking the airport's third closure in a week.
Belgian police confirmed on November 6 that unidentified drones flew near the Belgian Nuclear Research Center (SCK CEN) in Mol, Belgium as well as the European Quarter, which houses several European Union (EU) buildings.
The Flemish Public Broadcasting Company (VRT) reported on November 6, citing unspecified sources, that German troops arrived in Belgium to assist the Belgian military in implementing unspecified drone detection and defense measures.
The repeated unidentified drone incursions near European airports and critical infrastructure come against the backdrop of Russia's intensifying “Phase Zero” campaign to destabilize Europe, undermine NATO's cohesion, and set the political and psychological conditions for a potential future Russian war against NATO.
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-7-2025/
