Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment October 20, 2025
Excerpts:
US President Donald Trump's October 17 meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reportedly ended with Trump supporting a ceasefire on the current front lines and not Russian President Vladimir Putin's demands that Ukraine cede territory in Donetsk Oblast to Russia. [ Putin Puffing, Trump & Co Huffing ]
'Western reporting, citing sources with knowledge of the Trump-Zelensky meeting, indicates that Trump or a “Trump aide” initially supported Putin's demand that Ukraine cede Donetsk Oblast to Russia but that Trump later proposed a ceasefire freezing the current frontline by the end of the meeting.
Trump told journalists that he did not tell Zelensky that Ukraine must cede Donetsk Oblast to Russia ... has subsequently publicly stated that Ukraine and Russia should freeze the current front line ... discussed giving security guarantees to both Ukraine and Russia during the October 17 meeting.
Some Western media outlets reported that Putin offered to exchange unspecified “small areas” or “parts” of Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts for the rest of Donetsk Oblast during his October 16 call with Trump.
It remains unclear, if Putin offered to withdraw from parts of Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts that Russian forces currently occupy, or if Putin offered to abandon part or all of his demand that Ukraine cede unoccupied parts of the regions to Russia ... or if Putin was proposing preconditions for leader-level negotiations with Ukraine, a ceasefire, or a final peace settlement and if the parties discussed any additional conditions that Putin attached to such negotiations, ceasefire, or peace settlement.
Kremlin voices clarified Russia's position on negotiations following Western reporting about the October 17 Trump-Zelensky meeting in order to reiterate that Russia remains committed to addressing the alleged “root causes” of the war and is unwilling to agree to a ceasefire. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded to Western media reports about Trump's proposal for a ceasefire along the current frontline, stating that Russia has responded to the many repeated statements on this matter and that Russia's position is “well known” and “consistent.”
Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed that Russia has discussed the “root causes” of the war in order to ensure that a resolution to the war guarantees peace.
Zakharova reiterated that Putin, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and “the Russian leadership as a whole” have spoken about the need to eliminate the “root causes” and that Russia is oriented around this position. Russian State Duma International Affairs Committee First Deputy Head Alexei Chepa claimed that there should not be a ceasefire along the current lines and rejected assertions that a ceasefire would allow for diplomatic negotiations to end the war ...
... claimed that Russia should conclude an agreement on building the “future world order in Ukraine” before agreeing to halt military actions. Chepa claimed that the upcoming Trump-Putin meeting in Budapest could compel Ukraine to accept the terms of a peace settlement and then Russia can finalize a ceasefire on the frontline.
... claimed that Russia also needs security guarantees at the end of the war from the United States and alluded to Russia's ultimatums to the United States in 2021 about NATO.
... expansion, and the reduction of “certain types of weapons” (possibly referring to Russian demands for significant reductions to the Ukrainian military or the resumption of US-Russian arms control treaties).
The Kremlin has repeatedly referenced the need to eliminate the alleged “root causes” of the war in Ukraine, which Kremlin officials have defined as NATO's eastward expansion and Ukraine's alleged discrimination against Russian-speakers.The Kremlin uses discussions about these
root causes to forward Russia's original war demands for Ukrainian neutrality,
the removal of the legitimate government in Ukraine,
the installation of a pro-Russian government, and
changes to NATO's Open Door Policy. Kremlin officials have also repeatedly rejected Trump's and Zelensky’s proposals for a ceasefire on the grounds that negotiations for a final peace settlement must come first.
The Kremlin is likely reemphasizing Russia's commitment to its original war aims against the backdrop of Western reporting about the October 17 Trump-Zelensky meeting in order to clarify that Trump's position coming out of that meeting is unacceptable for the Kremlin, particularly ahead of the meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
The Kremlin is priming the Russian people for a full victory in Ukraine whatever the cost - a domestic effort that is at odds with Putin's reported willingness to make territorial concessions. The Kremlin has consistently reiterated throughout the war that Russia's war demands remain unchanged and has communicated to the Russian people that Russia will achieve all these goals in Ukraine, whether militarily or diplomatically.
The Kremlin has not prepared Russian society to accept anything less than these demands. Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu, who served as defense minister throughout much of the war, claimed in an interview to Kremlin newswire TASS on October 20 that
occupied Ukrainian areas should not be considered “new regions” of Russia, but are instead Russia's “old regions” that have “historically” been Russian.TASS framed Shoigu’s claim as referring to Donbas and “Novorossiya” - an amorphous invented region in southern and eastern Ukraine that the Kremlin has claimed is “integral” to Russia.
The Kremlin has conditioned Russians to expect that Russia's illegal annexation of parts of Ukraine is permanent and that Russia cannot make any territorial concessions to Ukraine. Western media broadly reported around the August 2025 Alaska summit that Putin had offered territorial concessions in exchange for the Ukrainian surrender of the unoccupied portion of Donetsk Oblast, prompting ire from Russian officials and ultra-nationalist voices in the information space
Russian officials and pro-Kremlin voices downplayed or dismissed the prospect of territorial concessions following Western reporting that Putin recently made a similar offer for territorial concessions to Trump.
Putin's refusal to prepare the Russian people, including the important ultra-nationalist constituency, to make any concessions in the war in Ukraine is another indicator that he does not intend to diverge from his long-held demands in any future peace talks.The Kremlin is leaning into its cognitive warfare effort to portray Russian forces as relentlessly advancing and a Russian victory as inevitable. This effort aims to obscure the reality that Russian forces are only making minimal gains at disproportionately high manpower costs and that Russia is unlikely to obtain its strategic objectives by force in the short- or medium-term. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha stated on October 20 that
Russia is increasing its federal spending on propaganda in the 2026 budget by 54 percent compared to the 2025 federal budget.
ISW has also observed reports indicating that the Kremlin is significantly investing in state television outlets and traditional means of propaganda in the 2026 budget.
The Kremlin's increase in state funding for mass media and propaganda notably comes as Russian federal subjects are cutting down on one-time signing bonuses for new military recruits, likely at the Kremlin's direction and in response to struggles to maintain voluntary recruitment and the negative effects these payments are having on the Russian economy as a whole.
The Kremlin is trying to use the information space to portray a Russian victory in Ukraine as certain, in order to push Ukraine and the West to concede to Russia's demands. [ Various Western news outlets and individuals are now dutifully reporting the inevitability of Russian win. ]
The Kremlin is heavily investing in its cognitive warfare capabilities and efforts to try to achieve its unrealistic war goals through diplomatic means.
ISW has observed no indications that the Kremlin remains willing to accept anything less than Ukrainian capitulation to all of its original war demands, and the Kremlin remains willing to expend considerable amounts of manpower, materiel, time, and other resources to achieving these demands on the battlefield if needed.
The Kremlin is advancing several informational lines falsely inflating reports of Russian military advances and offensive capabilities in order to push the West and Ukraine into conceding to Russia's territorial demands. Russian forces have been conducting infiltration missions and raising Russian flags in porous areas of the frontline in Eastern Ukraine, particularly in Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast and in Donetsk Oblast, as part of a concerted effort to claim that these infiltration missions are actually enduring Russian territorial gains.
Putin and senior Russian defense officials have artificially inflated the extent of Russian gains in Ukraine in recent weeks ... using these infiltration missions and exaggerated qualitative data to lend legitimacy to their claims.
The Kremlin aims for these claims to penetrate the Western information space to falsely portray Russia as capable of making rapid gains on the battlefield and overwhelming Ukrainian forces, even though Russian advances are constrained to slow foot-pace, dependent upon large numbers of infantry, and incur heavy casualties ...
ISW has not observed indications that Russian forces are preparing for or have launched a concerted offensive effort to cross the Dnipro River and advance into west bank Kherson Oblast - an operation that would require significant manpower and materiel that Russia has not concentrated in the Kherson direction.
The Kremlin likely seeks to convince Ukraine and the West that Russia's recapture of Kherson City and all of Kherson Oblast is inevitable such that Ukraine should cede these areas to Russia. The Kremlin may also seek to posture that a Russian “decision” to not seize these areas in exchange for Ukrainian withdrawal from unoccupied Donetsk Oblast would be a significant Russian concession. The Kremlin is attempting to use all available informational avenues to convince the United States, Europe, and Ukraine to acquiesce to the Kremlin's demands by convincing them that a Russian victory in Ukraine is certain when it is anything but.
Kremlin officials are attempting to present Ukraine as the obstacle to peace to obfuscate how Putin himself has been impeding the process by insisting that Ukraine cede more territory than Russian forces currently occupy. Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) CEO and key Kremlin negotiator Kirill Dmitriev claimed on October 19 that Ukraine and Europe are undermining the US-led peace process.
Zelensky has agreed to each of Trump's proposed immediate ceasefires along the current front in recent months, whereas Putin has rejected every one.
The Kremlin has been pushing a false narrative that Russia will inevitably seize the territory it is demanding, and that Ukraine, therefore, is responsible for protracting the war by refusing to surrender preemptively. Russian forces in reality, however, have been making creeping, marginal territorial advances at very high casualty rates because Putin has repeatedly rejected American and Ukrainian ceasefire proposals and remains determined to fight for more territory than Russia now controls.
Russia, not Ukraine, has repeatedly demonstrated that its refusal to compromise or engage in good faith negotiations is the reason for the lack of peace.The Belarusian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced that the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Indestructible Brotherhood-2025 and Barrier-2025 military exercises began in Tajikistan on October 20. Military contingents from Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are participating.
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-20-2025/
