Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 11, 2025
Excerpts:
Polish officials provided additional clarification on the impacts of the September 9-10 Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace. Poland's Ministry of Internal Affairs reported that as of 1900 local time on September 11, Polish law enforcement agencies found 17 total drones throughout eastern and northern Poland ... A Polish defense analyst stated that at least 15 of the recovered drones were Gerbera decoy drones, many of which were equipped with fuel tanks that doubled their range to as far as 900 kilometers ... Polish media reported on September 11 that about 40,000 Polish troops will deploy to the Poland-Belarus border area as a result of heightened tensions following the drone incursion and the upcoming Russia-Belarus Zapad-2025 joint military exercises, which begin on September 12.
Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds stated that Latvia will also close its airspace along its eastern border with Belarus and Russia until at least September 18, following in Poland's footsteps.
Poland's allies reiterated their support for Poland following the drone incursion, condemning Russia for purposefully conducting the incursion to test NATO readiness ... Sweden has provided an emergency package of air defense assets and aircraft to Poland; that the Netherlands is providing Poland with systems such as Patriots, National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS), and anti-drone systems; and that other allies are also providing Poland with concrete declarations of support ... Czechia will provide a helicopter unit with specially modified Mi-171 helicopters to Poland following the drone incursion ... a source familiar with the matter stated that NATO is preparing unspecified defensive military measures in response to the drone incursion into Poland, in addition to a political response ...
ISW assessed on September 10 that the Russian drone incursions were part of a multipronged and longstanding Russian effort to test NATO's technical capabilities and political resolve in preparation for a potential future war with NATO.
Ukrainian officials responded to the drone incursion by drawing parallels to Russian cycles of aggression and escalation against Ukraine and offered to share Ukraine's now-institutional counter-drone knowledge with Poland ... Zelensky stated ... that Russia flew drones into Poland on September 9-10 in order to test NATO's military and political abilities to respond to Russian kinetic provocations.
Zelensky noted that the psychological effects of the drone incursion mirror the psychological impacts of Russia's deployment of “little green men” to Crimea before the illegal occupation of the peninsula in 2014 ... implied that Russia hopes to use these drone strikes to push the Overton Window [ the range of subjects and arguments politically acceptable to the mainstream population at a given time. ] of what NATO is willing to absorb as an “acceptable” escalation, much like Russia did when it deployed unmarked, illegal combatants to Crimea to seize the peninsula in 2014 ... reaffirmed that Ukraine has offered to help train Polish forces to shoot down Russian drones.
Ukraine has developed invaluable tactics and technologies to effectively counter Russian drone strikes, and NATO states must work to absorb and institutionalize this experience the way Ukraine has in order to properly respond to potential Russian kinetic aggression against the alliance. [ In response, as reported elsewhere, the US has ordered barely a week's supply of drones. ]
The Kremlin continues efforts to destabilize the Balkans and dismantle the 1995 Dayton Accords that ended the 1992-1995 Bosnian War, likely as part of a larger campaign to divide and distract Europe ... Lavrov stated that Russia is one of the guarantors of the December 1995 Dayton Accords and accused the West of “trampling” on the accords to gain “undivided control” over Bosnia and Herzegovina and strip the Serbs of their rights ... that “external interference” in Bosnia and Herzegovina is inadmissible and that Russia condemns Western attempts to remove “undesirable” Serbian leaders from power, referencing the fact that the appeals court in Bosnia and Herzegovina recently sentenced Dodik for disregarding the decisions of an international peace envoy and defying the Constitutional Court.
Lavrov claimed that “destroying the consensus that underlies Bosnia and Herzegovina is … an invitation to another war in the Balkans.” Lavrov praised Dodik for planning a referendum in Republika Srpska in October and claimed that “the West does not like referendums,” including the “transparent” referendum in Crimea ... The Kremlin has previously leveraged its relationship with Republika Srpska to further influence the Balkans, sow divisions in Europe, and undermine the US-backed Dayton Accords to throw the Balkans into turmoil.
Russian state media is acknowledging the growing gasoline shortages in Russia, but is downplaying the role that Ukraine's deep strike campaign is playing in generating these shortages. The Russian Independent Fuel Union ... stated ... that over 10 Russian federal subjects are experiencing fuel shortages, including Ryazan, Nizhny Novgorod, Saratov, and Rostov oblasts, Far Eastern regions, and occupied Crimea and that fuel shortages are also reaching central regions such as Nizhny Novgorod Oblast ... local fuel shortages are becoming widespread in Russia ... that many gas stations have not received refinery deliveries for several weeks, forcing some gas stations to shut down...
ISW continues to assess that Ukraine's strike campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure is impacting Russia's domestic gasoline market, exacerbating shortages, and causing price spikes that will likely push inflation upwards and create further macroeconomic instability in Russia. It is noteworthy that Russian state media is more openly discussing gasoline shortages, as it suggests that the issue is beginning to permeate into more mainstream Russian society.
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-11-2025/ 
