Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 9, 2026
Excerpts:
Ukrainian and Russian officials confirmed that Russian forces conducted an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) strike against Lviv Oblast on the night of January 8 to 9, likely as part of the Kremlin's reflexive control campaign that aims to deter Western support for Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched a medium-range ballistic missile from the Kapustin Yar test site in Astrakhan Oblast overnight, and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) confirmed that Russian forces used an Oreshnik missile ...
... Ukrainian monitoring channels reported that Russian forces may have used an Oreshnik missile without a warhead, and the BBC's Russia service similarly assessed that the warhead most likely carried dummy warheads.
Lviv City Mayor Andriy Sadovyi stated that the strike marked the first time a Russian ballistic missile struck Lviv Oblast ...
Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Member Serhiy Nahornyak stated that Lviv Oblast suffered gas supply problems due to the shockwave from the Oreshnik strike, but that the region's gas infrastructure was not the target of the strike.
Nahornyak stated that Russian forces struck a facility that is not connected to gas supplies and that there was no critical damage to gas infrastructure in Lviv Oblast. Ukrainian electronic and radio warfare expert Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov noted that the Oreshnik strike against Lviv Oblast pierced 2 floors and burned an archive housing documents in a basement, and that
Russian claims about a deep strike penetrating dozens of meters into the ground are unrealistic.
A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger noted that the Oreshnik with a conventional warhead could not have damaged the underground gas storage facility, as the facility is hundreds of meters underground and would require either a nuclear weapon or an extremely powerful “seismic” impact to cause even partial damage
Another Russian milblogger noted that the available footage of the strike does not show the “expected” explosion.
The Kremlin likely targeted the westernmost part of Ukraine with an Oreshnik missile to deter Europe and the United States from providing security guarantees to Ukraine. The Russian MoD attempted to justify the strike as a response to the claimed Ukrainian drone strike targeting Russian President Vladimir Putin's residence in Valdai, Novgorod Oblast on the night of December 28 to 29.
... the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) found that there was no attempted strike against Putin's residence, however, in line with ISW’s assessment.
The Oreshnik strike was likely instead part of Russia's nuclear saber-rattling and aimed to scare Western countries from providing military support to Ukraine, particularly from deploying forces to Ukraine as part of a peace agreement ...
The Kremlin has repeatedly stated that such Western security guarantees would be “unacceptable” for Russia and that foreign troops would be “legitimate” targets for the Russian military.
The use of a nuclear-capable missile with a multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) payload targeting far-western Ukraine was likely meant to threaten the Coalition of the Willing and deter such troop deployments, which would likely enter Ukraine from the west and could potentially operate away from the front line in western Ukraine.
Putin framed Russia's first use of the Oreshnik missile against Ukraine in November 2024 as a direct response to Ukrainian ATACMS and Storm Shadow strikes against military objects in Russia, demonstrating how Russia has used the Oreshnik to conduct performative strikes in the past to discourage Western military support for Ukraine.
Russian forces conducted a long-range combined drone and missile strike on the night of January 8 to 9 that resulted in massive power outages, particularly in Kyiv Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 13 Iskander-M ballistic missiles/S-400 air defense missiles from Bryansk Oblast, 22 Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black Sea, and 1 medium-range ballistic missile from the Kapustin Yar test site in Astrakhan Oblast.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces also launched 242 Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, and other drones - of which roughly 150 were Shahed drones ... The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 226 drones, 8 Iskander-M/S-400 missiles, and 10 Kalibr missiles. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that 18 missiles and 16 drones struck 19 locations in Ukraine.
Ukrainian officials reported that the Russian strikes damaged critical, residential, educational, and transport infrastructure in Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that 4 people in Kyiv City died, and Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko reported that the strikes injured at least 25 people.
Zelensky reported that Russian forces conducted a “double tap” strike against rescue workers responding to an initial strike against residential buildings in Kyiv City ...
Ukrainian officials reported that 2 Iskander-M missiles also struck civilian infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, injuring at least 23 and killing 1. Ukrainian officials also reported that Russian forces struck port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast during the day on January 9, damaging 2 civilian vessels ... Russian strikes significantly damaged electricity transmission systems and power generation infrastructure, leaving at least 500,000 consumers in Kyiv City and 3,000 in Chernihiv Oblast without power.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Energy reported that Ukrainian authorities restored power to over 1 million people in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast after the Russian strikes on the night of January 7 to 8, but that over 34,000 people in the region remain without power as of the morning of January 9.
The US Navy seized another oil tanker with links to Russia that was attempting to bypass US sanctions against Venezuelan oil. US Southern Command reported on January 9 that the US Navy and Department of Homeland Security boarded and seized the Olina oil tanker in the Caribbean Sea.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that the Olina has the same unique ship identifying number as the Minerva M, which the United States sanctioned in January 2025 for transporting Russian oil ... that the Olina loaded 700,000 barrels of crude oil from a Venezuelan terminal on December 24, 2025. The Olina previously sailed under a Panamanian flag, and the international shipping registry listed the tanker as having an invalid registration for flying a false flag of Timor-Leste ...
Multiple oil tankers operating near Venezuela have re-registered under Russian flags in recent weeks. The New York Times (NYT) reported on January 9 that a sanctioned oil tanker leaving Venezuela, the Veronica, recently changed its name to Galileo and its flag to Russia this week in an effort to evade US Coast Guard boarding attempts
The NYT reported on January 7, citing the official Russian vessel registry, that 5 oil tankers operating in Venezuelan waters in recent weeks - all under US sanctions for shipping either Russian or Iranian oil - recently switched to Russian flags and declared home ports in Sochi or Taganrog, Russia ...
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-9-2026/ 
