Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 1, 2025
Excerpts:
US President Donald Trump ordered the deployment of two US nuclear submarines closer to Russia presumably in response to Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev’s July 31 nuclear threats against the United States ...
The Kremlin continued its nuclear threats against the United States prior to the ordered deployment of US nuclear submarines on August 1 - demonstrating that Medvedev’s threats are part of a wider Kremlin nuclear saber-rattling campaign ... Medvedev’s July 31 nuclear threats are also part of these reflexive control efforts, as Putin often leverages Medvedev to amplify inflammatory rhetoric designed to stoke panic and fear among Western decision-makers and discourage aid to Ukraine.
ISW continues to assess that Medvedev’s provocative and threatening statements are very likely part of a top-down, concerted Kremlin informational strategy. Putin would be able to censor Medvedev’s statements should Putin choose to do so, especially considering that the Kremlin coordinates official statements and controls the Russian information space, internet, and media.
Putin and Lukashenko highlighted recent Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast and articulated Russia's desire to seize Ukraine's fortress belt - which ISW continues to assess will constitute a multi-year long effort. Putin claimed that Russian forces recently seized Chasiv Yar, although Putin acknowledged that Russian forces are still clearing the town and that Ukrainian forces may counterattack into Chasiv Yar in the future.
Putin claimed that Chasiv Yar is “quite a large settlement,” although 2022 census data states that Chasiv Yar had a pre-war population of 12,500 people.
Russian state media and milbloggers are attempting to oversell the seizure of Chasiv Yar as a significant development along the frontline, and Putin appears to be leaning into this effort.
Lukashenko further claimed that Chasiv Yar is “the road” to Kramatorsk, which Lukashenko called the center of Ukraine's defense (referring to Ukraine's fortress belt - a series of fortified cities that form the backbone of Ukraine's defensive positions in Donetsk Oblast).
Lukashenko claimed that Russian forces will “slowly gnaw” at, seize, and advance beyond Ukraine's fortress belt. Putin responded that Russian forces will “return” the fortress belt, which Putin claimed belongs to Russia. Lukashenko claimed that Ukraine should quickly ask Russia to negotiate an end to the war before Russia seizes the fortress belt.
ISW has long assessed that Russian forces aspire to seize Ukraine's fortress belt, and Putin's statement marks the most recent high-level Russian confirmation of this intention.
Putin's desire to seize Ukraine's fortress belt indicates that he is willing to continue military operations in Ukraine long beyond Trump's stated August 8 deadline for peace in Ukraine and is ready to undertake complex, years-long operations ... Russian forces are currently expanding their salient southwest of Kostyantynivka (the southern tip of the fortress belt) in order to support a future attack on or envelopment of Kostyantynivka and the wider fortress belt from the southwest, but seizing Kostyantynivka alone will likely be a months-long effort. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger recently noted that it took Russian forces 14 months to seize Chasiv Yar and that Kostyantynivka is roughly 3 times larger than Chasiv Yar - underscoring how long a frontal Russian assault into Kostyantynivka could last.
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Putin appears to be transforming Russia into a Soviet-style police state, likely in preparation for expected anti-war sentiment in the Russian population as the Kremlin prolongs the war in Ukraine and prepares for a future war with NATO ... The Russian government has been slowly consolidating control over the Russian population's access to independent information throughout Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine ... The Russian government is also slowly adapting its legal regime to increase the state's ability to repress and coerce Russians into conceding to state narratives and ideas, like the Soviet Union's attempts at controlling the population.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-1-2025
