What Comes Next in US-Iran Talks?
July 18, 2025
By: Alexander Langlois
Without a deal on its nuclear program with the United States, Iran is likely to rush toward weaponization.
In a region notorious for its unpredictable ebbs and flows, the possible renewal of US-Iran nuclear negotiations marks the latest in the saga between the two rivals. Just over two weeks ago, these countries exchanged unprecedented blows amid a broader Israel-Iran war that killed and injured thousands. Such rapid shifts raise an important, yet basic, question: Do officials in Tehran and Washington desire a deal, and can they reach one?
One can be excused for expressing either optimism or cynicism, given the wide range of possible outcomes. As expected, the so-called “Twelve-Day War” bolstered hawks in Israel, Iran, and the United States. Even amid renewed US calls for talks, Iran remains skeptical. Israel prefers conflict and regime change. While not a foregone conclusion, the end of that war may be nothing more than a pause.
The supposed deterrent structure that dictated much of the region prior to October 7, 2023, is gone, and so are the rules that constituted it, thereby increasing the risk of miscalculation.
In this context, Iran’s decision to cease cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on July 2 is essential. Predictably, Tehran appears to be using the move as a signal to remove itself from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). From its perspective, the Islamic Republic has not received the assurances afforded to sovereign states by cooperating with global non-proliferation norms regarding its nuclear program.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/what-comes-next-in-us-iran-talks