How the CBO got it wrong again: Trump's economic bill set to generate trillions in surplus, not debt

[mystery-ak]

How the CBO got it wrong again: Trump's economic bill set to generate trillions in surplus, not debt
CBO projections fail to account for dynamic growth effects and tariff revenue in historic legislation
 By Peter Navarro Fox News
Published July 11, 2025 5:00am EDT

The Republican Congress and President Donald Trump just delivered a major victory to the American people by passing and enacting into law the historic One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB). Predictably, liberal media outlets – led by CNN, MSNBC, the New York Times and the Washington Post – continue to insist the OBBB will add trillions of dollars to our national debt. 

The truth – backed by both historical experience and robust economic analysis – is the exact opposite. President Trump’s OBBB will not only boost jobs and take-home pay for America’s working-class families. It will slash deficits by trillions of dollars even as its targeted expenditures will strengthen our national defense and secure our borders. As a bonus, OBBB will rapidly accelerate the deportation of millions of illegal aliens now stealing jobs from American citizens and driving down wages.   

At the center of the Fake News misinformation storm is the Congressional Budget Office. For years, the CBO has been trapped in a stale left-wing Keynesian mindset and stubbornly committed to static scoring models that fail to grasp how real-world economies respond to bold, pro-growth policies. As someone who has witnessed President Trump craft his economic agenda from inside the West Wing, I can tell you firsthand: when you cut taxes, slash job-killing regulations, achieve energy dominance, defend America’s manufacturing base with tariffs and fight for fair trade, the economy doesn’t just inch forward – it takes off.

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https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/how-cbo-got-wrong-again-trumps-economic-bill-set-generate-trillions-surplus-not-debt

[Bigun]

The CBO will never get anything right again until they are allowed to use dynamic scoring instead of the current static scoring method!

[DefiantMassRINO]

The CBO, like the Parliamentarian, are Dem partisan extra-Constitutional Deep State institutions.

When it comes to the confluence of wealth, power, and influence, there is no such thing as 'non-partisan'.

[Right_in_Virginia]

FTA:

Of course, this initial forecast came under withering fire for two glaring omissions. First, as in 2017, it ignored the dynamic growth effects baked into the OBBB’s permanent tax cuts, deregulatory measures, and investment incentives. Second, it refused to account for the revenue-generating power of Trump’s tariff policy, which the White House projects will generate as much as $2.8 trillion over the same decade.

Under heavy fire, the CBO scrambled to release a second "dynamic" estimate – but once again, they blew it. This time, they cooked the books by frontloading the bill’s costs, artificially inflating the early debt load. That let them assume a spike in interest rates, which then conveniently wiped out the very growth their model was supposed to measure. It was a masterclass in bureaucratic sabotage disguised as fiscal analysis.

To wit: When you frontload spending – particularly on growth-oriented tax relief and business investment incentives – you should also frontload the growth surge those policies trigger. More investment, more jobs and more productivity from this dynamic growth surge translate into higher revenues and lower debt burdens, not higher. And with reduced borrowing needs, interest rates should fall – not rise – as the market prices in stronger fiscal sustainability.

 

[Bigun]

FTA:

@Right_in_Virginia please see @DefiantMassRINO post above. He's right here! The federal bureaucracy is beyond screwed up.

[The_Reader_David]

The CBO will never get anything right again until they are allowed forced to use dynamic scoring instead of the current static scoring method!

There, fixed that.

[Right_in_Virginia]

TTTT

[Hoodat]

Here is a chart showing US tax revenues as a percentage of GDP:




Pay close attention.  This covers top tax rates for over half a century - 70% in 1980, 28% in 1987, 39% in the 90s.  And so on.  And no matter where rates were set, tax revenues ran roughly 17-19% of GDP.  So, if federal spending levels remain above 19% of GDP, we will NEVER have a surplus.

Last year, our federal government spent $6.75 trillion, which is over 23% of GDP.

Spending is the issue here.  One cannot grow one's way out of debt if one is still spending over 19% of GDP.