BREAKING: Trump spending bill to cut taxes by $3.7T, add $2.4T to deficit, CBO says

[mystery-ak]

 June 4, 2025 10:45am EDT
Trump spending bill to cut taxes by $3.7T, add $2.4T to deficit, CBO says
The CBO says the bill will lead to 10.9 million more people being uninsured


By Anders Hagstrom FOXBusiness

President Donald Trump's "Big, Beautiful Bill" would cut taxes by $3.7 trillion while adding $2.4 trillion to the national debt, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) says.

The CBO released its report on Trump's bill on Wednesday. The report also estimates that it would create an additional 10.9 million people without health insurance under the bill, including 1.4 million who are in the country without legal status in state-funded programs.

CBO's analysis of the House-passed version of the bill shows a larger deficit impact than the version that House Republicans initially brought to the floor, which was estimated to raise deficits by a net $2.3 trillion over a decade.

One of the notable changes in the tax cut package was a higher cap on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction, which the GOP increased to help secure the bill's passage in the narrowly divided House. With the revision, the federal government is projected to bring in about $128 billion less revenue over 10 years than the original bill, contributing to wider budget deficits.

Reforms to Medicaid and other healthcare programs are estimated to reduce spending by an additional $97 billion over a decade in the House-passed bill when compared with the chamber's initial proposal, bringing the total to nearly $1.1 trillion.

more
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/trump-spending-bill-cut-taxes-3-7t-add-2-4t-deficit-cbo-says

[mystery-ak]

Sen. Ron Johnson: ‘Grotesque’ Big Beautiful Budget Bill Will Not Pass

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) said Wednesday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that President Donald Trump’s budget bill will not pass because it has a “grotesque” level of spending.

https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2025/06/04/sen-ron-johnson-grotesque-big-beautiful-budget-bill-will-not-pass/

[mystery-ak]

GOP Senator Under Fire For Turning On Trump, Attacking ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’

Published 4 minutes ago

on June 4, 2025

By michael

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) made it clear that he wants significant changes to be made to the “Big, Beautiful Bill,” specifically concerning the section that aims to slash taxes on tips. This was a major priority for President Donald Trump in the legislation, which is now in the hands of lawmakers.

Speaking with Politico, Tillis said that the current House-approved draft of the tip proposal isn’t fair to those who work in industries where tipping isn’t a thing. He then complained that a restaurant server would be eligible for the break while someone working in a warehouse would not, even if they made similar amounts of money.

The federal minimum for waiters and servers is $2.13 an hour, but employers must ensure that their staff members make $7.25 an hour by combining wages and tips. In other words, without tips, these workers make next to nothing. Tips are essential in providing a living for them and their families.

President Trump believes tax breaks make it easier for those who rely on tips to succeed financially and grow over time into other industries.

Tillis told the left-leaning publication that he wants to take a different approach that he feels would treat people with similar earnings more fairly.

more
https://trendingpoliticsnews.com/just-in-gop-senator-under-fire-for-turning-on-trump-attacking-big-beautiful-bill-micca/

[Bigun]

The CBO can KMA! Their continued insistence on static scoring make them completely useless!

[bilo]

The CBO can KMA! Their continued insistence on static scoring make them completely useless!

Also, they set the average GDP at 1.8% when calculating the cost. I think it's more likely we will have GDP at 2.5%. A big difference! In addition they are not calculating the tariff revenue which is now projected to be 2.5 TRILLION.

I will be very happy if the Senate is able to cut more spending, reduce the SAT deduction and make the business deductions permanent, but I could live with a less drama.

I think the bill is nowhere near as bad as people think.

[Hoodat]

Trump spending bill to cut taxes by $3.7T, add $2.4T to deficit, CBO says

So instead of a $2.1 trillion deficit, we're going to have a $4.5 trillion deficit?

[bilo]

So instead of a $2.1 trillion deficit, we're going to have a $4.5 trillion deficit?

If you're right about the numbers, which don't factor growth from tax savings, you should deduct 2.8 Trillion. The CBO doesn't factor tariff revenue.

[DefiantMassRINO]

Are the US Senate Parliamentarian and the CBO instruments of the Deep State?

Who are they to tell a majority of elected representatives what they can and cannot do?  Neither are mentioned in Article 1 of the US Constitution.  They are artificial obstrunctionist (to Republican agenda) extra-Constitutional entities.  They let Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi waste taxpayer money on "Inflation Reduction Act" nonsense.

[bilo]

Are the US Senate Parliamentarian and the CBO instruments of the Deep State?

Who are they to tell a majority of elected representatives what they can and cannot do?  Neither are mentioned in Article 1 of the US Constitution.  They are artificial obstrunctionist (to Republican agenda) extra-Constitutional entities.  They let Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi waste taxpayer money on "Inflation Reduction Act" nonsense.

 

I'm sure there are a lot of things I don't like in the bill, but that's what happens when you need to build a coalition to pass a bill.

I am surprised to learn that this bill is the first increase in funding for ICE to hire more officers, pay for deportations, build beds to hold detainees and to finish the border wall in more than 20 years. That alone is reason to support the bill. Also, refusing to fall into the trap of believing that continuing tax cuts is an unwarranted expense is another reason to support the bill.

We need to take the victories where we can get them!

[Bigun]

I'm sure there are a lot of things I don't like in the bill, but that's what happens when you need to build a coalition to pass a bill.

I am surprised to learn that this bill is the first increase in funding for ICE to hire more officers, pay for deportations, build beds to hold detainees and to finish the border wall in more than 20 years. That alone is reason to support the bill. Also, refusing to fall into the trap of believing that continuing tax cuts is an unwarranted expense is another reason to support the bill.

We need to take the victories where we can get them!

 

We can't get 20 people here to agree on anything. Good luck getting 51 and/or 218!

[bilo]

We can't get 20 people here to agree on anything. Good luck getting 51 and/or 218!

Don't let the negativity in the media, or the big talkers in Congress, get you down. The Pubs know that if they don't pass the bill Maga will not vote for them in the future. Even after 2028 when Pres. Trump is out of office the loyalty that MAGA has for him will not diminish. It's a loyalty that is even stronger than we felt for Pres. Reagan.

I think here there are posters who are so determined to be ideologically pure they can work against their own best interest at times.

[Bigun]

Don't let the negativity in the media, or the big talkers in Congress, get you down. The Pubs know that if they don't pass the bill Maga will not vote for them in the future. Even after 2028 when Pres. Trump is out of office the loyalty that MAGA has for him will not diminish. It's a loyalty that is even stronger than we felt for Pres. Reagan.

I think here there are posters who are so determined to be ideologically pure they can work against their own best interest at times.

Sorry! But I think the swamp dwellers in Washington and Austin (both parties) are vastly in the majority and don't really give two hoots in hell what MAGA voters say or do. If they can't protect their swamp they let the courts, do it for them.

[Timber Rattler]

I'm old enough to remember when the CBO was considered sacrosanct and its numbers rock solid, so much so that Obama, Pelosi, and Reid beat down its director Peter Orszag to "bend the curve" downward enough to make ACA/Obamacare look affordable.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bend-it-like-obama/

https://www.aei.org/economics/aging/turns-out-obamacare-really-does-bend-the-curve-in-the-wrong-direction/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2016/03/31/u-s-health-spending-as-a-share-of-gdp-where-are-we-headed/

Now, this "abomination" that dwarfs ACA...the tables have certainly turned.

[bilo]

Sorry! But I think the swamp dwellers in Washington and Austin (both parties) are vastly in the majority and don't really give two hoots in hell what MAGA voters say or do. If they can't protect their swamp they let the courts, do it for them.

I agree with you about the courts, but the first and highest priority for the Establishment Loyalists is to get elected and to stay in office. If the Pubs don't pass the bill they will not retain the majority and a fair number of them won't get elected.

Pres. Trump is a counter revolutionary. He is ending the globalist system and reasserting our sovereignty. Even at our founding a lot of Patriots got weak kneed when things got tough, but the strong held on and we won.

[Timber Rattler]

Pres. Trump is a counter revolutionary. He is ending the globalist system and reasserting our sovereignty. Even at our founding a lot of Patriots got weak kneed when things got tough, but the strong held on and we won.

So where'd this guy go?

[Bigun]

I agree with you about the courts, but the first and highest priority for the Establishment Loyalists is to get elected and to stay in office. If the Pubs don't pass the bill they will not retain the majority and a fair number of them won't get elected.

Pres. Trump is a counter revolutionary. He is ending the globalist system and reasserting our sovereignty. Even at our founding a lot of Patriots got weak kneed when things got tough, but the strong held on and we won.

I don't think you get the fact that preserving the swamp is more important to them than getting re-elected. Every one of them knows that they can just move up the ladder to K street when they are no longer members of congress.

[bilo]

So where'd this guy go?

4) It's The Only Way To Cut A Lot Of Spending That's Popular And Doable Now
This is what the federal budget looked like in the fiscal 2024. Entitlements, defense, and interest on the debt comprise 80% of the federal budget. There's not enough fat to cut in the other 20% to make a real impact. The only way to make a significant dent in government spending is to cut entitlements or cut defense spending--and the BBB actually does cut some entitlement spending, by kicking 1.4 million illegals off of Medicaid.

[Bigun]

So where'd this guy go?

I think Trump has a plan to accomplish all those things. The problem is that the swamp dwellers (both parties) don't want them to happen. That would severely rock their boat, and they do not want their boat rocked!

[berdie]

If you're right about the numbers, which don't factor growth from tax savings, you should deduct 2.8 Trillion. The CBO doesn't factor tariff revenue.

Maybe because that is all possibly temporary? If I'm not mistaken those tariffs can be revoked/reduced at any time.

[bilo]

Maybe because that is all possibly temporary? If I'm not mistaken those tariffs can be revoked/reduced at any time.

No the figure is based on the 10% that is in place. The tariff revenue isn't going anywhere and everyone knows it. CBO doesn't include the tariff revenue because it was not passed by Congress. Also the CBO scores the permanent tax provisions as a cost of 3.7 trillion even though they have been in place for 7 years and revenues have gone up during that period.

So if you add the 2.8 trillion tariff revenue and eliminate the supposed tax cost of 3.7 trillion you have a swing of 6.5 trillion. Now looking forward and scoring based on a dynamic system rather than static you can add even more to that figure and we haven't even tried to take into account what happens if the business deductions are made permanent, or how savings will occur with Medicaid reform and the elimination of 1.5 millioin illegals on the program.

IOW, the BBB is nowhere near as bad as it is being made out to be.

[GtHawk]

I think Trump has a plan to accomplish all those things. The problem is that the swamp dwellers (both parties) don't want them to happen. That would severely rock their boat, and they do not want their boat rocked!

Sorry I am quickly losing confidence in Trump having a plan, Doge now looks like a pR stunt and I expect things to slide back to where they were. Trump V.1 promised deficit reduction and merrily signed every huge democrat spending bill put in front of him. Now this republican crapzilla and he wants the debt limit eliminated? Oh yeah Trump is against deficits.

[Canuck Conservative]

@berdie
@bilo

NOTE that this magical "tariff revenue" is nothing more than taxes lifted from the pockets of Americans

More problematic, these types of excuses justify not dealing with the real underlying problem - TOO MUCH DAMN SPENDING!!

Stop always raising the debt limit

Stop producing omnibus bills loaded with pork spending and surprises

Nothing has changed, still the SOS

That's why America continues to sink in debt ... NO ONE has the balls to deal with the problem