Adapt or Die: Redefining Wargaming for the Age of Algorithmic Warfare

[rangerrebew]

Adapt or Die: Redefining Wargaming for the Age of Algorithmic Warfare
By S.L. Nelson
May 02, 2025
 
“Adapt or die.” This isn’t just a cliché; it’s a fundamental truth of human survival. Security—the psychological need for stability and protection—is second only to food and water in Maslow’s hierarchy. War directly threatens this security, so understanding war is essential for preserving peace.

One of the oldest tools for grasping the nature of war is wargaming. It is, in essence, a rehearsal—an intellectual simulation that helps leaders make sense of complex, high-stakes decisions before lives and national resources are on the line. But while its utility has persisted, its form has not evolved fast enough to meet the demands of the modern battlefield.


The Problem with Today’s Wargaming
Wargaming is indispensable, but too often, it’s outdated, misused, or misunderstood. In some defense circles, it functions as little more than a stage for confirmation bias, where senior leaders seek validation for preconceived notions rather than insight into novel threats. Worse, wargames frequently remain trapped in analog formats: players huddle around maps, move tokens, make subjective choices, and imagine the rest.

This traditional model assumes that human decisions lie at the heart of conflict. That remains true. But the battlefield is rapidly changing—and the human element is no longer acting alone. As militaries increasingly rely on uncrewed systems, autonomous platforms, and AI-driven operations, our method of simulating war must evolve accordingly.

To prepare for war in 2030, NATO and its allies cannot afford to rely on wargaming methods from 1980. The urgency of modernizing wargaming is not a choice but a necessity for our collective security.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2025/05/02/adapt_or_die_redefining_wargaming_for_the_age_of_algorithmic_warfare_1107614.html

[DefiantMassRINO]

Weather wreaks havoc with the battlefield, as do other enviromental elements - disease and pests.

Sometimes, the battle theater itself is an impediment ... diffcult terrain, incompatible transportation and energy systems.

Other times, it's politics - Turkey wouldn't allow US troops to invade Iraq from its territory in 2003; Spain wouldn't allow US bombers to fly over its airspace during the 1980's Gulf of Sidra conflict with Libya.

The civilian economy may not be able to provide sufficient, rapid re-supply of munitions and equipment for a prolonged conflict.

Civillian inhabitants of a battle theater may be hostile.

The United States lacks the industrial infrastructure, capabilities, and capacity that won the Spanish-American War, World War i, World War II, the Cold War, and the First Gulf War.

To rebuild American capacity to make war, the Pentagon also needs to keep tabs of the re-industrialization of the American economy and the re-shoring of supply chains.

Foreign adversaries could start an economic war without firing a shot by no longer purchasing US Debt.  This would increase interest rates, cause a liquidity freeze, a seizure of credit markets, reduced economic activity, and political instability.

War is military, economic, technological, political, and social.

The American military's biggest vulnerabilities are economic, political, and social - outside the direct control of the Pentagon.

America's public institutions (social, political) are dysfunctional and private business maximizes profit by offshoring strategic industries to China.

Good luck wargaming a non-functional Congress and enemy ownership of America's debt and supply chain.