Great post, but what you are calling the long game might be over January 6, 2027, if history holds on midterms.
From all indications, Democrats will dramatically underperform in the midterms, due to several unusually powerful historical trends:
The Senate map is very unfavorable for Democrats. Fewer than historical average seats are at risk for Republicans, while some Democrats seats are now in play.
The Republican house majority is thin, but an above-average number of GOP seats are in safe districts, owing to both demographic changes and a prevalence of younger and more popular Republican incumbents. There are
only three House Republicans in districts former Vice President Harris won in 2024.
Democrats currently lack a national leader, and those in the ascendancy within their party are popular only within the narrow confines of their own districts, which are disproportionately urban and poor on one hand, or wealthy and highly-educated on the other. They have, at least for now, lost the affection of the middle class voters who decide the outcome of many elections.
Due to the populist influence of Donald Trump and his MAGA movement, Hispanic, male black voters and younger voters overall are trending conservative and Republican in significant numbers.
People are voting with their feet, and fleeing blue states for red ones.