Russia gets ready to reinstate the Soviet Union, USSRRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 22, 2025
Russian President Vladimir Putin is fostering the formation of an informal state ideology based on Russian nationalism that positions Russia in opposition to the West as part of ongoing efforts to militarize and unify Russian society. Putin stated on May 22 at a likely highly scripted award ceremony that “strong family foundations” and “traditional values” support Russia's “1,000-year-old statehood.” Putin emphasized that Russia's “most important” task is to preserve its people, culture, and spirituality. A Russian Orthodox priest who received an award during the ceremony thanked Putin for protecting Russian traditional culture, spirituality, and language. The priest noted that Russia's celebrations of its contributions to victory in the Second World War teach Russian youth and those in the “Russkiy Mir” (”Russian World” ) to defend Russia and love Russia's culture and spiritual foundations. (The “Russian World” is a Kremlin-promoted geopolitical concept with amorphous parameters that broadly encompass those who live outside of Russia's borders, but relate in some vague way to Russian language, culture, Orthodoxy, and media).
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The Russian word 'MIR' means either world of peace, depending on context. The phrase is often said with an arm bent at shoulder height with a clenched fist, symbolizing the conquest of the world by force and imposing Russian Peace. ]
Russian State Historical Museum General Director and awardee Alexei Levikin claimed that many countries hostile to Russia are basing their policies and ideologies on the falsification of historical events and facts. A martial arts school director who received an award claimed that Russia always proves that its fighters are the best on the battlefields and in sports arenas.
Putin notably promoted Russian nationalism by emphasizing Russia's spirituality and thousand-year history and by giving only a Russian Orthodox priest - but no representatives of other faiths - an award, despite the fact that the Russian state formally regards Russian Orthodoxy, Islam, Judaism, and Buddhism as Russia's “traditional” religions. Putin has previously highlighted ethnic and religious minorities’ contributions to Russia at high profile events and has often promoted a civic Russian identity and nationalism.
Putin's departure from this rhetoric at the highly staged event on May 22 may be an attempt to appease the increasingly pro-war Russian ultra-nationalist community. Putin is also attempting to use the awardees’ statements to reinforce the creation of an informal state ideology predicated on perpetuating the belief that the West is determined to defeat Russia, thereby justifying a future military conflict against the West to the Russian public. Putin declared 2025 the “Year of the Defender of the Fatherland,” and the development of an informal Russian nationalist ideology provides an ideological foundation for the ongoing Kremlin effort to develop a new cadre of loyal elites that includes selected veterans of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Putin will likely expand efforts to unify Russian society against the perceived threat of the West and to develop an elite class of militarized nationalists in order to ensure that any successor will embody similarly aggressive and dangerous ideals that perpetuate eternal conflict with the West and NATO.Russian Investigative Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin - one of the most outspoken Russian ultra-nationalists in Putin's inner circle - expressed support for the inclusion of an informal state ideology based on Russian nationalism in the Russian Constitution. Russian State Duma Deputy Speaker Pyotr Tolstoy stated on May 19 at the St. Petersburg International Legal Forum that Russia may change its Constitution in the future. Duma Committee on State Building and Legislation Head Pavel Krasheninnikov later stated at the forum that the Russian Constitution “meets current realities” and does not need amending, however. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on May 19, in response to Tolstoy, that changing the Constitution is “not on the [Kremlin's] agenda.”
Bastrykin claimed in an interview, with Kremlin news-wire TASS published on May 22, that Russia is built on traditional values, such as patriotism, citizenship, service to the Fatherland, and a strong family, and that these traditional values should underpin Russia's “national idea.” Bastrykin further claimed that Russia should enshrine this “national idea” in its Constitution. Bastrykin emphasized Russia's need to protect and preserve its “historical heritage” through legal frameworks. Bastrykin routinely publicly expresses interest in an informal Russian state ideology predicated on Russian ethno-religious nationalism and opposition to the West, in contrast to other senior Russian officials.
The Russian Constitution notably forbids the adoption of a formal state ideology. Peskov stated on May 22 that it is difficult to comment on proposals to amend the Russian Constitution because the Kremlin does not have the specifics of such proposals - a departure from his May 19 statement apparently dismissing changes to the Constitution. Kremlin officials most recently leveraged Victory Day, Russia's largest holiday that commemorates the Soviet Union's contributions to the Second World War, to promote a new informal state ideology based on Russian unity in the face of opposition from the West. The Kremlin is likely accelerating its promotion of this ideology to prepare the domestic population for a future military conflict against the West. Bastrykin is likely spearheading efforts to formally enshrine Russian nationalist ideology in the Constitution as one of the most powerful and influential ultra-nationalists within the Kremlin elite.
Russian authorities are renewing their years-long narrative rejecting the legality of the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, possibly to deny Ukrainian and Belarusian sovereignty and independence in the future. Russian State Duma Committee on the Protection of the Family, Fatherhood, Motherhood, and Childhood Head and member of the Communist Party Central Committee Nina Ostanina stated on May 22 that Duma deputies are ready to raise the issue of the alleged illegality of the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Ostanina agreed with Russian Presidential Advisor Anton Kobyakov's May 21 claim that the Soviet Union's founding body was not involved in the dissolution of the Soviet Union and that, therefore, the Soviet Union still legally exists. Ostanina further claimed that the dissolution of the Soviet Union was illegal because “no one gave authority” to then Belarusian Parliament Chairperson Stanislav Shushkevich, then Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic President Boris Yeltsin, and then Ukrainian President Leonid Kravchuk to sign the December 1991 Belovezha Accords, the internationally recognized document in which the Soviet republics of Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus agreed to dissolve the Soviet Union.
Russian authorities have intermittently revived false narratives about the illegality of the Soviet Union's dissolution and calls to reestablish the Soviet Union since at least 2014, and promoted this informational effort in 2021 and 2023. The Kremlin has been pursuing its strategic effort to de facto annex Belarus through the framework of the Union State of Russia and Belarus and consistently denies Ukrainian sovereignty. Russian officials, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Investigative Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin, have frequently invoked the “trinity doctrine” - the ideological concept suggesting that Russians, Belarusians, and Ukrainians are a “triune” and forcibly separated people.
The Kremlin may be instructing lower-level officials to re-inject the narrative about the allegedly illegal dissolution of the Soviet Union into the Russian information space in order to set conditions for the Kremlin to withdraw its recognition of Ukraine and Belarus as independent states in the future and call for a united Russian, Belarusian, and Ukrainian state. Russian officials have notably not acted upon past calls for the reestablishment of the Soviet Union, and the most recent iteration of this information campaign is similarly unlikely to have any near-term effects.
Russian authorities and state media continue to publicly question the legitimacy of the Ukrainian negotiating team and the Ukrainian government, likely to further efforts to reject and delay negotiations and to set conditions to renege on any future peace agreement with Ukraine. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Legal Department Director Maksim Musikhin claimed to Kremlin newswire TASS on May 21 that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has “long” lost his “internal” and “external” legitimacy so there “may be problems” with any agreements Zelensky may sign in the future. Musikhin claimed that a person “who has the [Ukrainian] people's mandate” should sign any future agreements and that the Ukrainian people must choose a new leader. Musikhin claimed that the Ukrainian Constitution may grant the head of the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada the power to sign agreements. TASS also amplified a source allegedly “close to the negotiations” in Istanbul claiming that Ukraine will have to change the members of its negotiating group in order to work on a memorandum for a future peace treaty because the Ukrainian delegation at the recent Istanbul talks had a “shortage of politicians.”
The source further questioned the legitimacy of any future Ukrainian negotiating group by claiming that the group may include “spies” working for European states or the United States. Musikhin is reiterating the longstanding false Kremlin claim that Zelensky is not the legitimate leader of Ukraine and therefore cannot sign any agreements with Russia.
Musikhin is also repeating Russian President Vladimir Putin's false claim that the Verkhovna Rada is the only legitimate power in Ukraine. Kremlin officials have repeatedly claimed that Ukraine must hold elections for its government to be legitimate even though Ukraine's constitution and law explicitly prohibits elections during periods of martial law and prohibits the Ukrainian government from lifting martial law during invasion by a hostile country. Musikhin’s statements and these Russian state media reports are part of the Kremlin's ongoing efforts to set conditions for Russia to justify its withdrawal from any future peace agreements with Ukraine at a time of Russia's choosing and to support Russia's repeated demand that Ukraine acquiesce to regime change and the installation of a pro-Russian government.
Recent Western reporting provided additional details in a case in which Russian forces executed Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in November 2024, supporting ISW’s assessment that high-level Russian military commanders are likely involved in these executions. CNN reported on May 21 that a Ukrainian intelligence official provided drone footage and intercepted audio in which a Russian commander ordered the execution of Ukrainian POWs and that the footage and audio correspond to a credible report of a Russian execution in western Zaporizhia Oblast in November 2024. CNN reported that it could not independently verify the radio intercept or its link to the execution but noted that a forensic expert and an unnamed Western intelligence official found the audio to be authentic and “consistent with previously documented brutal executions.” Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) told CNN that elements of a “Storm” unit of the Russian 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment (127th Motorized Rifle Division, 5th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Eastern Military District [EMD]) were responsible for the November 2024 executions and at least one other suspected execution. ISW observed additional reporting and footage that indicated that Russian forces captured and disarmed six Ukrainian POWs and executed five at close range near Novodarivka (eastern Zaporizhia Oblast) on November 23, 2024, in violation of international law.
UN Special Rapporteur on extra-judicial summary or arbitrary executions Morris Tidball-Binz told CNN that Russian executions of Ukrainian POWs cannot occur at such high numbers or frequency without the orders or consent of the highest Russian military commanders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin. There has been a sharp increase in credible reports and footage of Russian forces executing Ukrainian POWs throughout 2024 and 2025, and ISW continues to assess that Russian military commanders are either complicit in or directly enabling their subordinates to conduct systemic executions in direct violation of international law.
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov confirmed on May 22 Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev’s appointment as Russian Ground Forces Commander. ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin likely appointed Mordvichev to proliferate positional warfare tactics and operational concepts for grinding marginal advances - the main tactics Russian forces used in the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk direction - across Russia's Ground Forces.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-22-2025
