Poll: Donald Trump Passes Kamala Harris for First Time in Election Forecast

[mystery-ak]

Poll: Donald Trump Passes Kamala Harris for First Time in Election Forecast

Simon Kent 21 Oct 2024

Former President Donald Trump is now leading Vice President Kamala Harris for the first time in an election forecast, a poll released Sunday shows.

The news was contained in a Decision Desk HQ/The Hill election forecast for this cycle.

The model predicts Trump has a 52 percent chance of reclaiming the presidency while Harris has a 42 percent chance of entering the White House, as of Sunday. A report in the Hill sets out the change in prospects for the two protagonists:

    Since late August, the election forecast put Harris’s chances of winning at approximately 54 to 56 percent, with Trump’s chances at approximately 44 to 46 percent. In early October, however, those dynamics began to shift, and the election forecast predicted both candidates’ chances to be closer to 50 percent.

    On Oct. 17, the model predicted the two candidates were equally likely to win next month, and Trump took the advantage on Oct. 20.

The report goes on to note the shift in election forecast “coincides with the Republican candidate’s improved polling averages in Wisconsin and Michigan, two battleground states that previously leaned slightly toward Harris. Trump already had a slim advantage in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.”

Of the seven swing states seen as decisive in determining the outcome of the 2024 election, Pennsylvania is alone in still favoring Harris in its polling average, the hill concludes.

Despite the closeness of the contest Harris will reportedly not be campaigning with her soon-to-be former boss going into Election Day.

more
https://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2024/10/21/poll-donald-trump-passes-kamala-harris-for-first-time-in-election-forecast/

[mystery-ak]

Harris holds slim leads in four swing states, Trump polling ahead in two others
by Lauren Irwin - 10/21/24 8:51 AM ET

With two weeks left before Election Day, Vice President Harris holds slim leads over former President Trump in four critical battleground states, while the former president is slightly ahead in two others, new polling found.

The poll, conducted by the Washington Post-Schar School, surveyed voters in the seven swing states that will help determine the winner of the election.

Among likely voters, the vice president leads in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Trump enjoys advantages in Arizona and North Carolina. The two candidates are tied, each with 48 percent support, in Nevada.

Harris is leading in Georgia, 51 percent to Trump’s 47 percent. The Peach State narrowly went to President Biden in the 2020 election and Harris has spent a lot of her short-lived campaign in the state.

The survey found she is also leading in Wisconsin, with 50 percent to Trump’s 47 percent, and tops the former president in Michigan by 2 percentage points. The Democratic governors of the two states, Tony Evers (Wis.) and Gretchen Whitmer (Mich.), have been on the campaign trail to help elect Harris.

Both candidates are vying for Pennsylvania’s coveted 19 electoral votes in what is expected to be one of the closest states across the country. Harris currently leads there, 49 percent to Trump’s 47 percent.

Arizona is a key southwestern state that narrowly went to Biden in 2020. With immigration at a major concern of this election, Trump has focused his time on winning back the state this cycle. He leads Harris 49 percent to her 46 percent in the state, according to the poll.

Trump also leads in North Carolina. The former president stands at 50 percent to Harris’s 47 percent in the Tar Heel State. Both candidates will make visits to North Carolina after the western region of the state was hit hard by Hurricane Helene.

According to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ, Harris has a 1.5 percentage point lead over Trump based on an aggregation of polls.

The Washington Post survey was conducted Sept. 29-Oct. 15 among 5,016 voters in the seven swing states and has a margin of error of 1.7 percentage points.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4944433-kamala-harris-donald-trump-battleground-states-polling/

[rustynail]

Hope Trump has not peaked too early and the Kmentum is not building.

[Cyber Liberty]

It's bad for Dems when even The Hill shows Trump leading in the swing states.

[catfish1957]

Remember Zogby and their special sauce?

There are faux polls like Morning Consult and Reuters who are doing a fine job of keeping that legacy alive.  Looking at their demo action, I am surprised they can publish this with a straight face, saying their sampling population reflects the country.   

Some of these f'ers are making a science out of poll manipulation.

[catfish1957]

Orangementum?

[Lando Lincoln]

Hope Trump has not peaked too early and the Kmentum is not building.

Trend lines continue to improve. Fingers crossed.

[catfish1957]

I tell you.  I am tired of these biased shitty polls, and I want to call out the worst of the offenders.  Might be a tough accusation,   But, I see it as a public service function.

Oct. 22 Rueters-  Harris +3

NO LINK TO RAW DATA DEMOGRAHICS
--------------------------------------------------------
October 22 Morning Consult-  Harris +4

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2024/Morning_Consult_Oct_18-20_2024.pdf

Democrats sampled +4
Gender- Not listed (how convienent)
Independents- +4?  (bullshit)
13% of Black vote for Trump?...   
-----------------------------------------------

Now contrast that of detail versus the Atlas Group.  The point, is the less raw data provided, the easier it is to obfusicate and bias the reuslts

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2024/Atlas-Poll-US-Elections-NATIONAL-Oct-17-2024.pdf

[rustynail]

Fox News Polling Analysis Claims Massive Kamala Lead, Countering Other Polling
Fox attributes Harris’s 6-point lead to a concept called “inefficient vote.”

Last week, Fox News released a poll that found former President Donald Trump up by 2 points nationally, 50% to 48%, a mirror image reversal of results from a September iteration of this poll. Lest any Trump supporters get too excited about this shift, an underreported finding in the latest poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris up by a whopping 6 points in the battleground states that will decide the election. The stated margin of error for this survey is 6.5%. That alone should render this outcome suspect.

https://legalinsurrection.com/2024/10/fox-news-polling-analysis-claims-massive-kamala-lead-countering-other-polling/

[catfish1957]

Holy Molely.....

Both CNN and NYT have the race as a tie today. 

Kamel-uhboom!!!!!   

If she doesn't reverse this trend immediately, this implosion might carry over into a 55-45 Senate. 

[catfish1957]

@roamer_1

WTH is going on in MT senate race?

The Shill has Sheedy up only by 4% over Tester.

Is this the Shill being the hill, or has some dynamic in this election changed?

[roamer_1]

@roamer_1

WTH is going on in MT senate race?

The Shill has Sheedy up only by 4% over Tester.

Is this the Shill being the hill, or has some dynamic in this election changed?

I always told you Testercle would be hard to dig out.

[Free Vulcan]

Remember Zogby and their special sauce?

There are faux polls like Morning Consult and Reuters who are doing a fine job of keeping that legacy alive.  Looking at their demo action, I am surprised they can publish this with a straight face, saying their sampling population reflects the country.   

Some of these f'ers are making a science out of poll manipulation.

Reminds me of when Joni Ernst ran against Bruce Braley for Senate here in Iowa, and all summer Bruce had a healthy, up to double digit lead. Then the polls started narrowing, and the last week they started grudgingly flipping to a slim Ernst lead of 2-4 points on election day.

She won by 10.

[rustynail]

Historical come back begins?

Kamala Harris Wins Nickelodeon's 'Kids Choice' Presidential Election Poll

The election has been decided, 52% Harris versus 48% Trump and Kamala cackles all the way to the Oval Office, at least, according to a long running Nickelodeon kids poll.  The event has over 32,000 participants casting their virtual vote, which was open from Oct. 3-23. This might seem like desperation, but the children have spoken and the establishment media claims this is a good sign for Democrats.

Though Nickelodeon emphasized that its Kids Vote is “an informal non-scientific poll, meant for entertainment purposes only,” the media argues that election-time event has a fairly strong track record. The mock election has taken place every election year since 1988. Since that time, the poll has accurately predicted the winner of the U.S. presidential election every four years save for 2004 and 2016.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/kamala-harris-wins-nickelodeons-kids-choice-presidential-election-poll