How China Could Blockade Taiwan
Part 2 of a ChinaPower Series
August 22, 2024
By Bonny Lin, Brian Hart, Matthew P. Funaiole,
Samantha Lu, and Truly Tinsley
Chinese leaders are determined to prevent Taiwan’s permanent separation and eventually bring it under their control. Beijing’s growing use of its military to put pressure on Taiwan in recent years has stoked concerns that it may invade the island. Yet China has options other than invasion, one of which is a blockade designed to break the will of Taiwan’s people to resist.
Drawing on Chinese military writings, tabletop exercises, private consultations, and expert surveys, this report lays out China’s potential motivations for a blockade and maps out possible scenarios of how China could approach blockade operations.
Why China Might Blockade Taiwan
Chinese military planners have long considered a blockade to be one of the main campaigns for which the PLA needs to prepare.
Science of Campaigns, a textbook published in 2006 by China’s National Defense University, defines a “joint blockade campaign” (联合封锁战役) as “an offensive campaign that is implemented by Navy-, Air Force-, Second Artillery- and Army campaign large formations with the assistive concerted efforts of the armed police force and militia . . . to sever enemy economic and military connections with the outside world.”
A blockade would aim to take advantage of Taiwan’s status as an island with limited natural resources. Taiwan is much more dependent on trade than other large economies. In 2022, Taiwan’s imports and exports amounted to 61 and 69 percent of its GDP, respectively. By comparison, China’s imports and exports were only 15 and 20 percent of its GDP.
https://features.csis.org/chinapower/china-blockade-taiwan/
