Harris’ surprising Rust Belt strength
Erin Doherty
For the first time in months, the Democratic Party has reason for hope in the Rust Belt states known as the "Blue Wall."
Why it matters: Vice President Kamala Harris has closed the gap on former President Trump in the states that have long been key to the party's 2024 strategy, but had been growing out of reach for President Biden.
Before he suspended his campaign, Biden was trailing Trump by 2.4 percentage points in Michigan, 2.3 percentage points in Wisconsin and 4.4 percentage points in Pennsylvania, per FiveThirtyEight's average of state polls.
By the numbers: A New York Times/Siena College poll out last week found that Harris leads Trump by four percentage points in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan among likely voters in the states.
Pollster Nate Silver has Harris up by 3.8 percentage points in Michigan in his election model. She's up by 3.6 percentage points in Wisconsin and 1.9 in Pennsylvania.
FiveThirtyEight, which Silver founded, also has Harris up in Michigan by 3.3 percentage points; 3.3 percentage points in Wisconsin; and 1.6 percentage points in Pennsylvania.
Reality check: Polling in 2016 and 2020 in these states underestimated Trump compared to the eventual election margins, CNN's Harry Enten notes.
In 2016, polling underestimated Trump by nine percentage points in polls in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In 2020, he was underestimated by five points in these states compared to the final vote totals.
What to watch: Polling offers just a snapshot in time and there are still questions over whether the Harris campaign can sustain its momentum for the next several weeks until Election Day.
But polling shows that her favorability is rising. In Pennsylvania, the Times/Siena poll found that her favorability has grown 10 percentage points over the last month.
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