Harris now leads in three swing states among likely voters

[mystery-ak]

Harris now leads in three swing states among likely voters
By
Ross O'Keefe
August 10, 2024 12:50 pm
.

Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump in three swing states, according to a new New York Times/Siena College poll.

Harris is beating Trump 50% to 46% in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan — a stark change from when Trump was threatening to pull away from President Joe Biden in almost every battleground state.

The new poll further illustrates Harris’s rise to lead the presidential race after Biden dropped out of the race on July 21. Democratic excitement has reverberated through fundraising, polling, and campaign operations ever since.

All three results were within the margin of error for the polls, and polled under 700 likely voters in each state. Of the three, Pennsylvania appears to be the most surprising, as Trump had consistently polled ahead of Harris and Biden in the state.

It’s also one of the first polls to take Harris’s new running mate, Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) into account. Harris announced him on Aug. 6, and the poll took place Aug. 6-9. Walz may appeal to moderate and Republican voters with his military background and past bipartisanship, but could also alienate them with his policies as governor of Minnesota, which shifted to the left compared to his time in the House.

Voters in Michigan and Wisconsin are likely somewhat familiar with Walz, given his position as the governor of a neighboring state, and may be drawn to his midwestern persona.

Trump’s chances improve in Pennsylvania when third-party candidates are included, drawing Harris’s lead down to 46% to 44%, but widening her lead slightly in Michigan and Wisconsin.

The poll also touches on all three states’ Senate races, showing Republicans trailing. Former Rep. Mike Rogers only trails 42% to 41% to Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) in Michigan, while Dave McCormick trails by 14 points in Pennsylvania and Eric Hovde trails by 8 points in Wisconsin.

The presidential race still appears to be deadlocked heading into mid-August as both candidates continue on the campaign trail. Harris has been in several swing states recently while Trump held a rally in Montana.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/presidential/3117539/harris-now-leads-in-three-swing-states-among-likely-voters/

[mystery-ak]

https://twitter.com/lavern_spicer/status/1822268706304503856

[Hoodat]

Lavern Spicer 🇺🇸
@lavern_spicer
Dear Republican Party:

Where the f*** yall at?

Hey Lavern?  Where were you at when we pointed out that a candidate with negatives as high as Trump would have an extremely difficult time winning.  He's run for office twice.  Neither time did he capture a majority of the vote.  This was explained to you again and again.  Democrat voters aren't getting riled up to vote for their candidate.  They're getting riled up to vote against Trump.  So stop with your bullshit about where Republican voters are at.  It's the Democrat voters you should have worried about.

We told you so.

[kevindavis007]

I know it's the New York Times poll, but I can't see how Trump can win this election, also denial is not a river in Egypt:

https://twitter.com/socal_data/status/1822255434968740124

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Possibly outlier?

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harris

[banddag]

Trump is his own worst enemy. People are tired of the bullying and childish insults from a 78 year old man. People are wanting to turn back to civility and respect from their politicians.

[libertybele]

I know it's the New York Times poll, but I can't see how Trump can win this election, also denial is not a river in Egypt:

https://twitter.com/socal_data/status/1822255434968740124

I don't think too many in here are in denial that the possibility of another stolen election is probable.

As for polls; they've been inaccurate for several election cycles.

[libertybele]

Possibly outlier?

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harris

The bigger problem is election integrity. That problem hasn't been solved.  The DEMS/DNC certainly aren't going to see to it and the GOP/RNC have sat on their derrieres and have done little to resolve the issue.  We'll see a repeat of 2020.

[Cyber Liberty]

Possibly outlier?

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harris

Big time.

[banddag]

The bigger problem is election integrity. That problem hasn't been solved.  The DEMS/DNC certainly aren't going to see to it and the GOP/RNC have sat on their derrieres and have done little to resolve the issue.  We'll see a repeat of 2020.

There was no widespread election fraud in 2020

22 million baby boomer have died since 2016 election and replaced by 34 million people age 45 and younger who are widely voting democrat..  67% of the electorate voted in 2020 versus 61% during Obama. That is why Biden got 81 million votes because 27 million more people voted in 2020 than 2008. The simple fact is the Maga base are dying off.
The Republican/conservative elites are all pulling the wool over your eyes.  They claimed election  fraud so they would not get fired. If the real reason/incompetence came out they would have been fired.

Trump hired two independent research firms and they could not find any fraud. Another conservative group True the Vote spent 3 years and millions of dollars and could not find any fraud. Conservative producers of 2000 mules backed off and said the claims in the video was total crap.

@libertybele

[catfish1957]

Like I've said many times before, unless its a Rasmussen poll, I don't put too much faith into the results.  And even there, they don't bat a 1.000.  Trump's base is set, and seeing any pared off into Harris' direction, isn't plausible.

The rest are push polls, or highly biased in prep.

[Smokin Joe]

I don't think too many in here are in denial that the possibility of another stolen election is probable.

As for polls; they've been inaccurate for several election cycles.

Polls just set the point spread so the algorithms can do their work when it's time to count votes and it doesn't look so far from the realm of probability to the people who believed the polls..

[Hoodat]

There was no widespread election fraud in 2020

There was enough election fraud in 2020.

[corbe]

   I don't believe these polls, either.  Trump has less than 90 days to prove 2016 was not just a fluke.
   I dream of moving to Belize, regardless of who wins.

   Just like her

[libertybele]

There was no widespread election fraud in 2020

@libertybele

Bull.

[DCPatriot]

Hey Lavern?  Where were you at when we pointed out that a candidate with negatives as high as Trump would have an extremely difficult time winning.  He's run for office twice.  Neither time did he capture a majority of the vote.  This was explained to you again and again.  Democrat voters aren't getting riled up to vote for their candidate.  They're getting riled up to vote against Trump.  So stop with your bullshit about where Republican voters are at.  It's the Democrat voters you should have worried about.

We told you so.

"Sniff"???

Geez... could smell your bullshit from The Tables Down at Mory's

[corbe]

   You need to replace the exhaust fan in the $hitter.  @DCPatriot

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Done only to make it seem the election fraud in those states become reasonable.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

The bigger problem is election integrity. That problem hasn't been solved.  The DEMS/DNC certainly aren't going to see to it and the GOP/RNC have sat on their derrieres and have done little to resolve the issue.  We'll see a repeat of 2020.

Trump cannot win no matter who the Dems have running if the GOP does not mitigate election fraud, period.

It should be the #1 priority of the RNC and state/local organizations.

[LMAO]

There was no widespread election fraud in 2020

22 million baby boomer have died since 2016 election and replaced by 34 million people age 45 and younger who are widely voting democrat..  67% of the electorate voted in 2020 versus 61% during Obama. That is why Biden got 81 million votes because 27 million more people voted in 2020 than 2008. The simple fact is the Maga base are dying off.
The Republican/conservative elites are all pulling the wool over your eyes.  They claimed election  fraud so they would not get fired. If the real reason/incompetence came out they would have been fired.

Trump hired two independent research firms and they could not find any fraud. Another conservative group True the Vote spent 3 years and millions of dollars and could not find any fraud. Conservative producers of 2000 mules backed off and said the claims in the video was total crap.

@libertybele

To your demographic data


Harris and the Democrats know that Donald Trump will carry the rural parts of the country. They know they can easily offset that by carrying the urban  areas. They also know that Donald Trump will not sweep the suburbs or independent voters enough to overcome that.

This is the Obama 2012 playbook. Romney did better amongst independent voters than BHO But Obama did much better in the urban areas and did OK in the suburbs. Romney did better in the suburbs than McCain did. But it wasn’t enough to overcome the urban advantage

https://dailyyonder.com/exit-polls-romney-improves-rural/2012/11/07/#:~:text=He%20improved%20slightly%20over%20McCain's,50.2%20percent%20of%20that%20vote.


I will admit that I underestimated Harris. I’m surprised at the reaction she’s getting from her base considering she was the first to drop out in the Democrat primary for president


Trump’s bases is set. That’s unlikely to change. But hers has room to improve. The voters at large are very well aware of her record on the border and her left leaning positions. But Trump’s schtick is wearing thin with voters and Now that Biden has stepped aside, Trump’s age is becoming an issue. And it’s starting to show. He is not comparable to Biden. But what’s he gonna be like in two or three years?

Republicans are going to have to become pretty creative in the next few years to make sure that Harris doesn’t get a second term. I don’t know what they can do


Trump’s bizarre press conference the other day was not a strategy. It was an act of desperation


@banddag

[Smokin Joe]

There was no widespread election fraud in 2020


@libertybele

It did not have to be widespread. It was in 5 states, all of which supposedly stopped counting in the same hour, and all of which found massive upturns for Biden when they resumed counting. They also had problems with precincts that submitted more votes than they had voters, double counting ballots, stuffed drop boxes (illegal harvesting), etc.

In total, Biden's 'win' amounted to a slim margin of less than 250,000 votes counted in five states (put together), in at least one case, less than the number of voters who were not eligible to vote in the state but did. Oddly enough, the records and ballot images for those were either "inadvertently" deleted, lost, or otherwise no longer available for verification, even though the law required them to be preserved.

Those narrow margins in states which had highly questionable election practices provided the electoral victory Biden 'won'.

At the root of all that, however was the fact that, using COVID as an excuse, election practices were changed by people who had no Constitutional authorization to do so. Constitutionally, election rules are to be set by the Legislatures of the several states, not anyone else.

[Kamaji]

There was no widespread election fraud in 2020

22 million baby boomer have died since 2016 election and replaced by 34 million people age 45 and younger who are widely voting democrat..  67% of the electorate voted in 2020 versus 61% during Obama. That is why Biden got 81 million votes because 27 million more people voted in 2020 than 2008. The simple fact is the Maga base are dying off.
The Republican/conservative elites are all pulling the wool over your eyes.  They claimed election  fraud so they would not get fired. If the real reason/incompetence came out they would have been fired.

Trump hired two independent research firms and they could not find any fraud. Another conservative group True the Vote spent 3 years and millions of dollars and could not find any fraud. Conservative producers of 2000 mules backed off and said the claims in the video was total crap.

@libertybele

Prove it.  Audit the election records.

[Cyber Liberty]

There was enough election fraud in 2020.

I can attest to that in AZ.  The person you posted to is FOS, but you know that.

[libertybele]

Trump cannot win no matter who the Dems have running if the GOP does not mitigate election fraud, period.

It should be the #1 priority of the RNC and state/local organizations.

This issue should have been resolved or at least addressed and policies/procedures put in place long before now. 

[LMAO]

I have no problem auditing the election results from 2020. I don’t think that’s unfair

I’m not going to debate whether the 2020 election was stolen or not, but let’s say for the sake of argument that we find without a shadow of a doubt  that it was

Then Trump should’ve done what Nixon did in 1960 when  there was suspicion  that the mob may have stuffed ballots in Cook County, Illinois for JFK.

Trump IS going to be hounded over January 6 this election by the press and the DNC. He tried to put candidates in the GOP primary races in the 2022 midterms that agreed with his version of what happened in 2020 and it failed. The term “election deniers” being applied to many of his chosen candidates hurt them. Don’t kid yourself that its not going to be tried again

If voters believe that there may have been enough shenanigans in an election that could’ve cost a candidate the election, they  can be somewhat sympathetic to that. It’s what Donald Trump did on January 6 and his conduct since then that  has turned off voters