Heads Up on Artic Blast Early Next Week

[catfish1957]

Recent Model Runs are showing that the middle of country is going to be in the deep freeze very late this week, going int early next week.  Even down to the Gulf Coast. On the GFS at the 120 hour point they are progosticating  a 1052Mb High right at the Canadian/Montana border.   That is atm pressure of 31.06 Mercury.  A Big one.   

Followed by a second similar one at the 210 hour point.  About 8 days from now.  Front Range and Upper plains? I am hearing maybe in the -20 to -30 a poossibility.   With zero down to about a line from the TX/OK panhanle- MO/AR borders.  Gulf coast might be in the teens.  Agian this is just a modeled forecast, but right now I have a pretty good idea things are about to really get chill.  Bundle up and prepare accordingly.

[bigheadfred]

I have been watching this. They had expected lows in the minus for the weekend (-10) but have raised it to around +10 now. The ten day is midteen low average and mid twenties highs.

[Bigun]

Weather for next week.

I just received this from my friend who works for the National Weather Service in Houston. Plan accordingly.

You've probably heard the TV forecasters talking about an Arctic outbreak that will be heading our way and some additional details are becoming available in the various forecast models.

Currently, most of the models have the cold front reaching southeast Texas by late Sunday/early Monday and open the door for an Arctic airmass to spill southward. The 0000Z European ECMWF model has our temperature locally falling to the 29-30 degree range by Sunday afternoon and is forecasting lows of 21-23 Monday, 11-12 Tuesday, and 24-25 Wednesday before southerly winds and a rapid warmup begin. The ECMWF also wants to bring some freezing precipitation through late on Monday.

The 0000Z Canadian GEM is a little slower with frontal arrival but also somewhat colder. It is forecasting a Sunday afternoon low in the 50s but has temperatures bottoming out in the 18-21 range Monday and to a bone chilling 8-9 Tuesday before rising to a balmy 10 or so Wednesday. The GEM's warmup doesn't really kick in until Thursday. The GEM is also forecasting some freezing precip getting close but has it further to our east.

The 12Z American GFS is still running but its 0000Z output, while still showing very cold temperatures and a hard freeze n the Monday-Wednesday period, was marginally warmer than the ECMWF and GEM. The 0000Z GFS wasn't forecasting any frozen precip for our area and realistically it is still too early to take a definitive position.

At this point in time, the safest forecast is to say we are looking at a hard freeze next week and preparations need to be made before the cold air gets here.

This morning's graphic from the HGX forecast office is included below.

[Free Vulcan]

Oh yeah, it's gonna be that kind of cold

[Free Vulcan]

You hate to go thru it, but the brutal cold not only keeps critters some of you all have down there, it also heaves the ground to make an excellent soil bed for growing in the spring.

[Cyber Liberty]

We have a cold snap in progress here in the Mojave Desert.  Got below +40 several night now, avoiding a hard freeze.

For us this is cold.  Any time below 40 is too damned cold.  I moved to the Mojave to get out of this crap.  Give me my 120F Summer days back!

[Cyber Liberty]

Topics Merged.

[libertybele]

We are under a tornado watch until 9pm tonight.  Coastal flooding is possible of 1-2 ft. Wind gusts right now of 50mph. Cold front to then move in. DeSantis has called a state of emergency in quite a few counties. We've never experienced weather likes this, this time of year and we've been down here 30 years. 

[Polly Ticks]

Supposed to have a high of 14 degrees here next week. 
I bet my kids will be happy that I got them wool socks and gloves for Christmas. 

[libertybele]

Supposed to have a high of 14 degrees here next week. 
I bet my kids will be happy that I got them wool socks and gloves for Christmas. 

That's cold, they'll be thanking you. 

[roamer_1]

they say we'll be 26 below by Thursday... That's 3 dogs for sure...

[bigheadfred]

We are getting heavy snow with a 20 mph wind right now. The snow is supposed to stop soon, but it is a mess out there now.

[Cyber Liberty]

We are getting heavy snow with a 20 mph wind right now. The snow is supposed to stop soon, but it is a mess out there now.

Yeah, drifting like all get-out!  I may have lived in AZ for better than 40 years, but I lived in Michigan before getting smarts and getting the heck outta there!

[berdie]

Supposed to be our first real cold next Monday/Tuesday. Although I almost feel ashamed about griping, after reading previous posts....man, do I dread it! I despise cold weather.

[GtHawk]

To everyone affected, stay safe and stay warm. Remember Canoodling is an exceptional way to generate, er, heat
Of course there is always beverages.
https://www.thepioneerwoman.com/food-cooking/meals-menus/g45123054/hot-drink-recipes/

[corbe]

[corbe]

Weatherman ,,,,,,Hank Williams JR


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSDZsNJKeDg

[LMAO]

We have had a very mild winter up until this point, but we’re supposed to go through a weeklong cold snap starting after this weekend

The issue is the lack of snow. Last year we ended the winter with record snowfall. There’s only about 6 inches of snow on the ground right now.

But it looks like it warms up again after that

[catfish1957]

Looking at the GFS, the Arctic blast seems to be coming on cue, at abut 1050ish Mb clip.  What I am seeing freaky now is this expected  972 Mb low forming and deepening in Mo, creeping up the Ohio River Valley into the Great Lakes.  I am guessing we are going to see some pretty impressive snow totals in those areas.  Midwest blizzards ?  Good chance I am guessing

[Free Vulcan]

Looking at the GFS, the Arctic blast seems to be coming on cue, at abut 1050ish Mb clip.  What I am seeing freaky now is this expected  972 Mb low forming and deepening in Mo, creeping up the Ohio River Valley into the Great Lakes.  I am guessing we are going to see some pretty impressive snow totals in those areas.  Midwest blizzards ?  Good chance I am guessing

They are talking about 10" here in the Florida of Iowa, and some butt spankin' cold for several days after that.

[roamer_1]

They are talking about 10" here in the Florida of Iowa, and some butt spankin' cold for several days after that.

eh... hard saying how much snow... It's sandy and blowing hard. There's only 3" on the truck, but in wind, that don't mean much... zero right now, and windy. 16 below by tonight, nearly 30 below the next night... Seems like below zero till about Tuesday... so not so long... But with little snow on the ground, this is going to drive frost like a sledge hammer, and it feels pretty bitter - usually there would be 3
' of snow between me and all that cold. Not true this year.

[Free Vulcan]

eh... hard saying how much snow... It's sandy and blowing hard. There's only 3" on the truck, but in wind, that don't mean much... zero right now, and windy. 16 below by tonight, nearly 30 below the next night... Seems like below zero till about Tuesday... so not so long... But with little snow on the ground, this is going to drive frost like a sledge hammer, and it feels pretty bitter - usually there would be 3
' of snow between me and all that cold. Not true this year.

We got 6 a couple of days ago, so now's the pile on. In some ways I wish we would have gotten the cold before the snow because of all it's ground heaving and bug killing properties. Keep those nasty critters down south where they belong. 

The comedy part is the youngins who haven't dealt with this much. They're like 'WTH is this crap?' and the older ones are like 'WINTER! Which we had nearly every %&*#^~! year growing up!'

[roamer_1]

We got 6 a couple of days ago, so now's the pile on. In some ways I wish we would have gotten the cold before the snow because of all it's ground heaving and bug killing properties. Keep those nasty critters down south where they belong. 

The comedy part is the youngins who haven't dealt with this much. They're like 'WTH is this crap?' and the older ones are like 'WINTER! Which we had nearly every %&*#^~! year growing up!'

I'm trying to figure the last time we went hard below zero... It's been a while, but not that long... A couple years ago I was in a hot tent up above Dickey Lake, and it was under 10 below then. But it's been a while. Hard on folks living up in the woods right now

[roamer_1]

Well... here it is... A wailing devil wind outside. they shut off the airport, and schools letting out early. No school tomorrow... It's a howler.

[berdie]

Looking at the GFS, the Arctic blast seems to be coming on cue, at abut 1050ish Mb clip.  What I am seeing freaky now is this expected  972 Mb low forming and deepening in Mo, creeping up the Ohio River Valley into the Great Lakes.  I am guessing we are going to see some pretty impressive snow totals in those areas.  Midwest blizzards ?  Good chance I am guessing

Not really understanding all the technical talk, but seems like my hope of an inaccurate forecast here in NE TX is dashed. I think I'll move some more wood inside. My propane tank is on 60 per cent. I guess I'll see how efficient it really is.

As always, my heart goes out to all in the far northern areas. Stay safe.

[roamer_1]

6 below already... I might have to put on some flannel and find my wool socks...

[Free Vulcan]

6 below already... I might have to put on some flannel and find my wool socks...

Now things have shifted and they're talking alot more ice. Dang I hate ice.

[roamer_1]

Now things have shifted and they're talking alot more ice. Dang I hate ice.

We're too dang cold for ice to be a problem... twelve below now... That cold, the top of the ice ain't that slick.

[Gefn]

we are due for sleet all weekend - starting tonight .


I don't like this. You can really  fall and do damage once you hit a certain age

I would rather have snow. We haven't had snow since 2020

[roamer_1]

we are due for sleet all weekend - starting tonight .


I don't like this. You can really  fall and do damage once you hit a certain age

I would rather have snow. We haven't had snow since 2020

Buy you a good pair of mukluks, snow packs, or snow boots. You wear them big, for extra socks... and they come big to accommodate the thick insulation. but that adds another feature - the tread is also much wider, which provides a great deal more sure-footedness.

Now, nothing 'ladies', stylish, or thin... This is a working boot that any rural northern gal will own.

[GrouchoTex]

As long as we don't lose power like we did in February 2021, we should be okay.

[deb]

6 below already... I might have to put on some flannel and find my wool socks...

Might have to break out the winter coat?
It’s a balmy -9 right now. Gonna be cold for a while.
First calf was born on the farm yesterday. Wasn’t expected this early, but it’s doing well so far.

[roamer_1]

Might have to break out the winter coat?
It’s a balmy -9 right now. Gonna be cold for a while.

-17 right now... With the wind chill last night, Big Mountain (ski resort) recorded -66

First calf was born on the farm yesterday. Wasn’t expected this early, but it’s doing well so far.

Of course... in a blizzard, in a stream, in the early morning. That's how cows roll. 

Congratulations... I guess. I am so over pulling calves.

[GtHawk]

Dang, I feel bad for all of you freezing your butts while I sit here in balmy SoCal with nights in the low 40's and days in the low 60's I know that for a lot of you that's like like summer, I think of it as comfortable even though there are a lot of people here that think they are in real cold like all of you. Stay safe and keep warm

[corbe]

As long as we don't lose power like we did in February 2021, we should be okay.

 

[Cyber Liberty]

Dang, I feel bad for all of you freezing your butts while I sit here in balmy SoCal with nights in the low 40's and days in the low 60's I know that for a lot of you that's like like summer, I think of it as comfortable even though there are a lot of people here that think they are in real cold like all of you. Stay safe and keep warm

Yes, I am interested in the temperatures being so low, everywhere but where you and I live.  We have low temperatures here, too, but here in my part of the Mojave Desert it hasn't gotten down to freezing.  And no precipitation so far this year.

[catfish1957]

I usually like to rub it in with our nice moderate winters here near the TX Gulf Coast, but those rascals at the NWS are saying its going to get near 20 here Wednesday.  Brrrrrrr!!!!!!

[Right_in_Virginia]

Dang, I feel bad for all of you freezing your butts while I sit here in balmy SoCal with nights in the low 40's and days in the low 60's I know that for a lot of you that's like like summer, I think of it as comfortable even though there are a lot of people here that think they are in real cold like all of you. Stay safe and keep warm

We lived one winter season in SoCal ---- and it was kinda fun --- it had a real vacay feel to it.  Yet, I just couldn't fight the urge to throw a few pairs of thick socks and a couple of scarfs into the earthquake preparedness kit.   

[Cyber Liberty]

We lived one winter season in SoCal ---- and it was kinda fun --- it had a real vacay feel to it.  Yet, I just couldn't fight the urge to throw a few pairs of thick socks and a couple of scarfs into the earthquake preparedness kit.   

Mrs. Liberty had an Earthquake Kit in SoCal.  She had lived through a couple of them, like Northridge.  Also a smaller version in her car.

[GtHawk]

We lived one winter season in SoCal ---- and it was kinda fun --- it had a real vacay feel to it.  Yet, I just couldn't fight the urge to throw a few pairs of thick socks and a couple of scarfs into the earthquake preparedness kit.   

You can never go wrong with warm socks and a scarf, there are times when a stiff wind(for us) of 20 or 25 mph makes them welcome

[GtHawk]

Mrs. Liberty had an Earthquake Kit in SoCal.  She had lived through a couple of them, like Northridge.  Also a smaller version in her car.

I have been through a few bad quakes, fortunately not at an epicenter like Northridge and the only places that absolutely scare me of being at during a bad one is in my car under an overpass or in a concrete parking structure and outside of a high rise with lots of glass windows

[Cyber Liberty]

I have been through a few bad quakes, fortunately not at an epicenter like Northridge and the only places that absolutely scare me of being at during a bad one is in my car under an overpass or in a concrete parking structure and outside of a high rise with lots of glass windows

I noticed that in SoCal, people tend not to go under overpasses right away.  They wait for a clear spot on the other side.  When my wife pointed it out, I thought it would be a good practice.  Bets are off when a bunch of NooBs decide that's a great time to cut you off.

[GtHawk]

I noticed that in SoCal, people tend not to go under overpasses right away.  They wait for a clear spot on the other side.  When my wife pointed it out, I thought it would be a good practice.  Bets are off when a bunch of NooBs decide that's a great time to cut you off.

Yup, whether you are in earthquake country, or just in hostile areas, it makes good sense to watch your six and make sure you have a safe exit

[Cyber Liberty]

Yup, whether you are in earthquake country, or just in hostile areas, it makes good sense to watch your six and make sure you have a safe exit

Always, and especially so for driving in traffic.  Always have an "out," and let other drivers have theirs.

[berdie]

As long as we don't lose power like we did in February 2021, we should be okay.

Amen!! I have severe PTSD caused by that whole mess.

[DefiantMassRINO]

Nothing worse than ice and burst water pipes.  If you lose heat, you may want to shut off the water and open the spigots to keep frozen water from bursting your pipes. 

[mystery-ak]

Nothing worse than ice and burst water pipes.  If you lose heat, you may want to shut off the water and open the spigots to keep frozen water from bursting your pipes.

Good advice...

[roamer_1]

Dang, I feel bad for all of you freezing your butts while I sit here in balmy SoCal with nights in the low 40's and days in the low 60's I know that for a lot of you that's like like summer, I think of it as comfortable even though there are a lot of people here that think they are in real cold like all of you. Stay safe and keep warm

You don't get it... Like a Husky, I BELONG here. I LOVE 30 below... I'm just itchin to get out in it... That's the difference this year.

Maybe it was all those years wading in frozen waters while trapping... maybe I got that ice water in my veins... but I would never live where winter don't.

[Cyber Liberty]

You don't get it... Like a Husky, I BELONG here. I LOVE 30 below... I'm just itchin to get out in it... That's the difference this year.

Maybe it was all those years wading in frozen waters while trapping... maybe I got that ice water in my veins... but I would never live where winter don't.

I am more like a Camel or a Gila Monster. Give me those 115 degree days.

[roamer_1]

I am more like a Camel or a Gila Monster. Give me those 115 degree days.

Triple digits, my ass is in a lake somewhere, all day long.