Florida prepares for Tropical Storm Idalia to make landfall on Gulf Coast with lessons learned from

[mystery-ak]

 Florida prepares for Tropical Storm Idalia to make landfall on Gulf Coast with lessons learned from Ian
By Steven Yablonski , Andrew Wulfeck , Emilee Speck, FOX Weather   
August 27, 2023 8:10pm

Hurricane, Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watches have been issued for parts of Florida as the state prepares for potential landfall of Idalia.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded Tropical Depression Ten near the southern Gulf of Mexico to Tropical Storm Idalia on Sunday, with landfall expected as a hurricane along Florida’s Gulf Coast later this week.

There are only a few days left for Florida residents to prepare for the effects of the storm, and Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 33 counties to ensure communities have the resources they need ahead of the storm’s arrival.

DeSantis said in a news conference on Sunday that everyone along Florida’s Gulf Coast needs to prepare.

The governor urged residents not to wait to get ready if they are outside the storm’s cone of uncertainty, recalling the forecast for Hurricane Ian last year, which at one point had a potential landfall in the Florida Panhandle.

Ian made landfall in Southwest Florida as a major hurricane.

“The models are probably more in agreement than when we had Ian last year. But these things can shift. There’s still some uncertainty out there,” DeSantis said.

The FOX Forecast Center does a post-analysis of data after any tropical system makes landfall to determine the agreement and accuracy of forecast models.

The NHC issued a Storm Surge Watch, Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Watch for the parts of the Gulf Coast of Florida on Sunday.

More watches and warnings may be issued for other areas along Florida’s Gulf Coast in the coming days.



[imgwidth=500]https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/08/NYPICHPDPICT000026876428.jpg?quality=75&strip=all[/img]
Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 33 counties to ensure communities have the resources they need ahead of the storm’s arrival.

much more here
https://nypost.com/2023/08/27/florida-prepares-for-tropical-storm-idalia-with-lessons-learned-from-ian/

[mystery-ak]

My sister will have a heart attack..I think they are almost finished re-building their house on Sanibel Island from the last hurricane..

[Wingnut]

My sister will have a heart attack..I think they are almost finished re-building their house on Sanibel Island from the last hurricane..

They are saying it will make land fall to the east of the Big Bend.   Which is probably the best place as it is mostly woodlands and marshlands and low population density.

[libertybele]

My sister will have a heart attack..I think they are almost finished re-building their house on Sanibel Island from the last hurricane..

This will impact as a Cat 3 in the Big Bend area, that is what we are hearing locally.   --   We are also hearing that even without it being a hurricane as of right now we could see 2-4 foot of storm surge. Depending on the tide at the time it could have a significant impact.  I like your sister am very concerned.  Wind is one thing, water is another. 

We are under a 'watch' for right now. I am trying to remain calm.

However, and the reason for my huge concern is this is exactly the scenario that played out during Ian.  They kept telling us that the hurricane would hit the Big Bend area and it hit Lee county as a Cat5 (that's what was recorded here locally different than the 'official' records of Cat 4).  Storm surge was extreme.

Prayers up for your sister @mystery-ak

[cato potatoe]

Big mess coming in Tampa Bay, unless the circulation is Andrew-sized.

[mystery-ak]

This will impact as a Cat 3 in the Big Bend area, that is what we are hearing locally.   --   We are also hearing that even without it being a hurricane as of right now we could see 2-4 foot of storm surge. Depending on the tide at the time it could have a significant impact.  I like your sister am very concerned.  Wind is one thing, water is another. 

We are under a 'watch' for right now. I am trying to remain calm.

However, and the reason for my huge concern is this is exactly the scenario that played out during Ian.  They kept telling us that the hurricane would hit the Big Bend area and it hit Lee county as a Cat5 (that's what was recorded here locally different than the 'official' records of Cat 4).  Storm surge was extreme.

Prayers up for your sister @mystery-ak

Most of their damage was from flooding..the beach is right across the street...

[DefiantMassRINO]

Sanibel Island?  The insurance premiums have to huge.  That place previously got wiped out by Hurricane Charly in 2004.

[Wingnut]

Sanibel Island?  The insurance premiums have to huge.  That place previously got wiped out by Hurricane Charly in 2004.

Damn near cut Captiva in half.  We honeymooned at the Old Plantation resort.  Took it out but the Mucky Duck survived!

[mystery-ak]

Sanibel Island?  The insurance premiums have to huge.  That place previously got wiped out by Hurricane Charly in 2004.

My bil doesn't have homeowners..he did have flood ins which was most of the damage..they had about 4feet of water in the house and garage....he doesn't believe in homeowners ins..he can afford not too.

I asked my sister after the last hurricane if they would move or sell and she said they have had that house for over 25 years and the only damage they have had over the years was the loss of a few roof tiles and an avocado tree...

[libertybele]

Local news has announced that it will indeed likely make landfall in the Big Bend area -- far north of us.  They all soon because of its rapid movement they don't expect it to turn towards us at the last minute like Ian did.

Prayers up for those in the Big Bend/Tampa Bay area.  Forecast reports indicates significant storm surge as high as 11 ft.

[Wingnut]

Cantori sighting in FL.  He's heading for Cedar Key.

https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/2023/08/28/jim-cantore-florida-hurricane-idalia-where-weather-channel-star-twitter/70700837007/?fbclid=IwAR0UFZmosVkkJSJA75X5ajUTeZ9sUeVzRLyuAnfeIDHlaLMFLKu8_l0f9Ps

Marked safe from (V)idalia

[Polly Ticks]

Praying for safety for all.

[mystery-ak]

Idalia could be strongest storm to hit the Florida Big Bend for a CENTURY as it officially becomes a hurricane:14 MILLION are placed under severe weather warnings ahead of 150mph winds and 12ft storm surge

    Hurricane Idalia is due to hit Florida in the night to Wednesday as a Category 3 hurricane
    The growing intensity of the storm is causing experts to predict a storm surge as high as 12 feet, with winds potentially reaching 150mph
    Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has warned Floridians to 'buckle up' during a news conference 

more
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12454981/Hurricane-Idalia-strongest-storm-hit-Florida-bend-century-hit-Category-3-strength-gusts-150-mph.html

[mountaineer]

A rare full blue moon will have an impact on Hurricane Idalia as it makes landfall in Florida
WYFF 4
 10:40 AM EDT Aug 29, 2023
Parella Lewis, Weather Anchor

GREENVILLE, S.C. —  As Hurricane Idalia makes landfall in northern Florida on Wednesday as a major hurricane, a rare full blue moon will play a part in the storm.

The full moon will be in full force, creating higher tides as this storm rolls into the area.

These higher tides, also known as king tides, occur both during new moons and full moons when the gravitational pull is highest from the sun and moon puling in the same direction on earth.

Some tides could be a foot higher than usual due to the full moon. This is an additional extremely dangerous storm surge and even higher tides due to the massive hurricane. ... More

[libertybele]

Idalia could be strongest storm to hit the Florida Big Bend for a CENTURY as it officially becomes a hurricane:14 MILLION are placed under severe weather warnings ahead of 150mph winds and 12ft storm surge

    Hurricane Idalia is due to hit Florida in the night to Wednesday as a Category 3 hurricane
    The growing intensity of the storm is causing experts to predict a storm surge as high as 12 feet, with winds potentially reaching 150mph
    Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has warned Floridians to 'buckle up' during a news conference 

more
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12454981/Hurricane-Idalia-strongest-storm-hit-Florida-bend-century-hit-Category-3-strength-gusts-150-mph.html

Praying that all are able to get out of harm's way.  They have predicted 12 ft. storm surge.  It's the storm surge more than the wind that is cause for alarm.

[DefiantMassRINO]

Both Charly and Ian took quick, unexpected right turns inland, south of their predicted landfall locations.

Everyone on the Gulf Coast of Florida needs to be prepared ... they may not have sufficient warning to evacuate safely.

[libertybele]

Both Charly and Ian took quick, unexpected right turns inland, south of their predicted landfall locations.

Everyone on the Gulf Coast of Florida needs to be prepared ... they may not have sufficient warning to evacuate safely.

That has been my concern -- Charley took a very quick turn and there was no way to evacuate. Charley was smaller hurricane with little storm surge.  Ian was also predicted to go up to the Tampa area and then turned towards us -- we took a direct hit with significant storm surge.

We have been assured by several forecasters that with the steering currents it will hit north of us.  No one has even put up storm shutters around here -- we are expecting tropical storm winds with rain and storm surge of 2-4 ft.

[libertybele]

Sanibel Island/Captiva is already experiencing some storm surge/flooding as well as Ft. Myers Beach and Pine Island. Hopefully all were able to get off the islands.  The bridges to and from the islands are temporarily repaired and still being worked on. 

With the hurricane's rapid movement hopefully it will leave the area sooner rather than later.   

[mystery-ak]

 Fort Myers suffers intense flooding as Hurricane Idalia is set to slam Florida — fueled by rare blue supermoon
By Katherine Donlevy   
August 29, 2023 6:31pm

Intense flooding transformed Fort Myers roadways into rivers Tuesday as “life-threatening” Hurricane Idalia was set to slam Florida’s southwest coast — fueled by a rare blue supermoon.

The outer bands of the major Category 2 hurricane swept over the metro area, bringing with it strong storm surges that have already flooded residential streets with knee-deep water.

Forecasters warned that Wednesday night’s blue supermoon will also likely cause higher-than-normal tides, meaning some areas of the state can expect storm surges to reach 15 feet.

“I would say the timing is pretty bad for this one,” said meteorologist Brian Haines of the National Weather Service office in Charleston, SC.

Though Idalia is still roughly 200 miles southwest of Tampa, the rising tides have washed onto highways and overfilled canals.

One eerie video showed high-speed winds ripping through palm trees and kicking up miniature sand storms as heavy, dark clouds moved across the sky.



more
https://nypost.com/2023/08/29/fort-myers-suffers-intense-flooding-as-hurricane-idalia-is-set-to-slam-florida-fueled-by-rare-blue-moon/

[cato potatoe]

Here in St. Pete, if I'm honest, this is the nicest day we have experienced in almost 3 months.  We have a light breeze out of the SE.  The circulation must be compact.

[GtHawk]

Live coverage of Idalia with storm chasers.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDmD1OYSVGc

[mystery-ak]

Florida Briefers please take care...my thoughts and prayers are with you...

[mystery-ak]

Watch the FOX Weather Channel Live Stream

https://www.foxweather.com/live

[Hoodat]

Watch the FOX Weather Channel Live Stream

https://www.foxweather.com/live

Thank you.  My daughter is in Dunedin/Clearwater.  This will be her first hurricane.

[Wingnut]

Thank you.  My daughter is in Dunedin/Clearwater.  This will be her first hurricane.

You never forget your first time.

[libertybele]

Fort Myers suffers intense flooding as Hurricane Idalia is set to slam Florida — fueled by rare blue supermoon
By Katherine Donlevy   
August 29, 2023 6:31pm

Intense flooding transformed Fort Myers roadways into rivers Tuesday as “life-threatening” Hurricane Idalia was set to slam Florida’s southwest coast — fueled by a rare blue supermoon.

The outer bands of the major Category 2 hurricane swept over the metro area, bringing with it strong storm surges that have already flooded residential streets with knee-deep water.

Forecasters warned that Wednesday night’s blue supermoon will also likely cause higher-than-normal tides, meaning some areas of the state can expect storm surges to reach 15 feet.

“I would say the timing is pretty bad for this one,” said meteorologist Brian Haines of the National Weather Service office in Charleston, SC.

Though Idalia is still roughly 200 miles southwest of Tampa, the rising tides have washed onto highways and overfilled canals.

One eerie video showed high-speed winds ripping through palm trees and kicking up miniature sand storms as heavy, dark clouds moved across the sky.



more
https://nypost.com/2023/08/29/fort-myers-suffers-intense-flooding-as-hurricane-idalia-is-set-to-slam-florida-fueled-by-rare-blue-moon/

This appears to be Ft. Myers Beach. I have not hear anything locally about the downtown Ft. Myers area flooding.

Reports are that they dumped tons of sand onto Sanibel to protect the 'causeway' so people can get out -- report are that so far it has worked.  They protected the lighthouse as well with sand -- so far so good.

[Hoodat]

You never forget your first time.

She just corrected me.  It's her second hurricane.

[libertybele]

Thank you.  My daughter is in Dunedin/Clearwater.  This will be her first hurricane.

@Hoodat is she planning on staying put??

[Wingnut]

She just corrected me.  It's her second hurricane.

Well, she is not a virgin then.  I think she should ride it out.

[cato potatoe]

Thus far it is not great, not terrible.  Winds are maybe gusting to 45 in the heaviest rain.  Our power did its first hiccup a few minutes ago, and an ugly cell is moving across the bay with not much behind it, so fingers crossed.

[Hoodat]

@Hoodat is she planning on staying put??

Yes.

[Hoodat]

Well, she is not a virgin then.  I think she should ride it out.

I think you should STFU.

[Sighlass]

Our Pastor, wife, and kids are in Panama City, debating whether to stay or not. Their last family gathering before one of his kids marries. Just a little west and they will be under the gun it looks like. Now saying could be a Category 4.

I don't understand the moon effect.. I mean why does it matter how much light is reflected off the moon and how does it determine tide height? The moon is still there no matter how the sun is refracted in my simpleton mind.

EDIT: Now Category 3 and near Category 4 according to Fox Weather.

[Kamaji]

Hurricane Idalia makes landfall in Florida

By Isabel Keane
August 30, 2023

Hurricane Idalia made landfall Wednesday morning in Florida as a dangerous Category 3 hurricane, promising to unleash “life-threatening” storm surges, damaging winds, and copious amounts of rain upon millions of Sunshine State residents.

Idalia, which has strengthened significantly in the past 24 hours, had briefly been categorized as a Category 4 storm before winds tapered off at a relentless 125 mph while making landfall just before 8 a.m. in Florida’s Big Bend region.

Officials with the National Hurricane Center still cautioned, “This change in wind speed does not diminish the threat of catastrophic storm surge and damaging winds.”

The threat of storm surges spans about 200 miles of Florida’s west coast, including the state’s Big Bend area, a sparsely populated area where the peninsula merges into the Panhandle, which was expecting anywhere from 12 to 16 feet of storm surge.

*  *  *

Source:  https://nypost.com/2023/08/30/hurricane-idalia-makes-landfall-in-florida-as-category-4-storm/

[libertybele]

I hope you are ok @Wingnut      We are still experiencing tropical storm conditions and will continue to do so until tomorrow. I woke up to sunny skies, but that was short lived.

Hurricane Idalia makes landfall over Florida's Big Bend as Category 3 storm, tens of thousands without power

Hurricane Idalia has made landfall over Florida’s Gulf Coast as a "catastrophic" Category 3 storm that has already left tens of thousands of residents without power, officials said Wednesday morning.

Idalia is producing storm surges of up to 16 feet in some areas, damaging winds howling up to 125 miles per hour, and historic freshwater flooding that has completely encompassed Floridian roadways, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee called Idalia "an unprecedented event" as no major hurricanes – those classified as Category 3 or higher – have made landfall through the Big Bend region since hurricane data was first recorded in 1851. The NWS also said "no one" has witnessed a storm strengthen to such magnitude in such a short time.

The storm passed the Apalachee Bay and made landfall over Florida's Big Bend region, where the peninsula merges into the Panhandle. It is directly impacting Gainesville, Jacksonville, Tallahassee, Dowling Park, Lake City, Cedar Key, Chiefland, Newberry, Cross City, Apalachicola, Perry and other Florida cities. Its impact will also be felt in Orlando, Spring Hill, Bradenton, Bartow, Ocala, Lake Placid, Tampa, Sarasota, and Fort Myers.

[libertybele]

Yes.

Wow.  I hope your daughter is ok @Hoodat   

[Kamaji]

Good luck to all TBR Members in Florida, or otherwise in the path of this thing.

[Wingnut]

I hope you are ok @Wingnut      We are still experiencing tropical storm conditions and will continue to do so until tomorrow. I woke up to sunny skies, but that was short lived.

No effect on us whatsoever.  Sunny blue sky's and a few degrees cooler for the next day or so.   

Hope you and your stuff stays dry!  :)

@libertybele

[DB]

Our Pastor, wife, and kids are in Panama City, debating whether to stay or not. Their last family gathering before one of his kids marries. Just a little west and they will be under the gun it looks like. Now saying could be a Category 4.

I don't understand the moon effect.. I mean why does it matter how much light is reflected off the moon and how does it determine tide height? The moon is still there no matter how the sun is refracted in my simpleton mind.

EDIT: Now Category 3 and near Category 4 according to Fox Weather.

The ocean tides are caused by gravitational forces from the moon. When the moon is overhead it causes the tide to rise. So if the storm and the moon are both present at the same time the tide is higher than it otherwise would have been doing more damage from water going inland. This description is not complete but the overall gist of it.

[libertybele]

No effect on us whatsoever.  Sunny blue sky's and a few degrees cooler for the next day or so.   

Hope you and your stuff stays dry!  :)

@libertybele

Yay for the blue skies!!

We have gusts of wind with some rain and spots of sunshine. We're good.

[Wingnut]

Yay for the blue skies!!

We have gusts of wind with some rain and spots of sunshine. We're good.

 

My BIL lives In Wesley Chapel (North of Tampa)  Haven't heard from him yet.  I assume his place survived cuz he hasn't called looking for a place to stay!  LOL

[libertybele]

My BIL lives In Wesly Chapple (North of Tampa)  Haven't heard from him yet.  I assume his place survived cuz he hasn't called looking for a place to stay!  LOL

Yikes.  Prayers up for him. 

[mystery-ak]

Yay for the blue skies!!

We have gusts of wind with some rain and spots of sunshine. We're good.

Thanks for the update...is it over for you?

[GtHawk]

The ocean tides are caused by gravitational forces from the moon. When the moon is overhead it causes the tide to rise. So if the storm and the moon are both present at the same time the tide is higher than it otherwise would have been doing more damage from water going inland. This description is not complete but the overall gist of it.

Also this full moon is occurring at perigee, I'm not sure how that will add.

[GtHawk]

Prayers for all our Briefers and their families that are affected by the hurricane...everyone else too, even the democrats.

[libertybele]

Thanks for the update...is it over for you?

Not quite -- we'll have tropical force winds and rain today off and on and into tomorrow. I'd say our drought is now over. :)

I really feel for the people who took on a direct hit.

[mountaineer]

Massive 100-year-old oak tree falls on Gov. Ron DeSantis’ mansion during Hurricane Idalia while his family’s inside
By Selim Algar   
August 30, 2023 2:54pm

For Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Hurricane Idalia really hit home.

A gigantic oak tree toppled onto the side of the Sunshine State leader’s Tallahassee mansion during Hurricane Idalia Wednesday while his wife and three kids were inside.

“100-year-old oak tree falls on the Governor’s Mansion in Tallahassee — Mason, Madison, Mamie and I were home at the time, but thankfully no one was injured,” first lady Casey DeSantis tweeted just before 12:45 p.m.

“Our prayers are with everyone impacted by the storm.”

An accompanying picture showed the moss-covered behemoth cleaved down the middle, with one portion resting on its side and the governor’s mansion in the immediate background. ...

https://nypost.com/2023/08/30/huge-tree-just-misses-desantis-mansion-during-idalia/

[libertybele]

Massive 100-year-old oak tree falls on Gov. Ron DeSantis’ mansion during Hurricane Idalia while his family’s inside
By Selim Algar   
August 30, 2023 2:54pm https://nypost.com/2023/08/30/huge-tree-just-misses-desantis-mansion-during-idalia/

Prayers up for the good governor and his family.  He's got a tremendous amount on his plate right now.

[Smokin Joe]

This will impact as a Cat 3 in the Big Bend area, that is what we are hearing locally.   --   We are also hearing that even without it being a hurricane as of right now we could see 2-4 foot of storm surge. Depending on the tide at the time it could have a significant impact.  I like your sister am very concerned.  Wind is one thing, water is another. 

We are under a 'watch' for right now. I am trying to remain calm.

However, and the reason for my huge concern is this is exactly the scenario that played out during Ian.  They kept telling us that the hurricane would hit the Big Bend area and it hit Lee county as a Cat5 (that's what was recorded here locally different than the 'official' records of Cat 4).  Storm surge was extreme.

Prayers up for your sister @mystery-ak

Near and at the full moon, the high tides tend to be higher, the low tides, lower. ("Spring Tides")

The storm surge will be superimposed on that.

[catfish1957]

You never forget your first time.

Or your 9th, 10th, and 11th.

I was surprised this thing reached Cat 4.  That was a hell of a day of strengthening.  1-4 in 24 hours.  Very impressive.

When our Louisiana 100+ year old homestead got hit by Laura, we lost Virgin Pine trees that were easily 120-140 years old.  That is at least how long ago similar winds were seen.