Ukraine 4

[Kamaji]

Kyiv's troops advance around Bakhmut after Wagner chief dismissed 'absurd' Russian claims about huge Ukrainian losses and Western officials cast doubts over Putin's defences as counter-offensive begins

Ukrainian forces have advanced on the embattled Ukrainian city of Bakhmut
Western advisers warn Russia's defensive line may be 'more fragile than thought'

By RACHAEL BUNYAN
6 June 2023

Ukrainian forces have advanced on Bakhmut, Kyiv's Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said, describing the embattled city as the 'epicentre of hostilities'.

Maliar said Kyiv's troops had 'some success' on the battlefield surrounding Bakhmut and said they are 'advancing on a wide front', but she dismissed suggestions of a major operation.

'The main focus now is on the Bakhmut sector,' said Maliar. 'This has resulted in certain successes, including advances. We have taken control of certain heights.'

And an enigmatic Volodymyr Zelensky last night praised his troops for the advances near Bakhmut, saying 'the enemy knows that Ukraine will win'.

News of the Ukrainian advances came after the head of the feared paramilitary group Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, slammed claims by the Russian defence ministry it had killed 1,500 of Kyiv's soldiers in two days as 'absurd science fiction'.

Prigozhin, whose mercenary troops have spent months fighting in Bakhmut on behalf of the Kremlin, poured scorn on his country's establishment after it claimed to have thwarted a second major offensive in Donetsk.

*  *  *

Source:  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12163933/Kyivs-troops-advance-Bakhmut-Wagner-chief-dismissed-absurd-Russian-claims.html

[Kamaji]

What is the Kakhovka dam in Ukraine? Who destroyed it and why?

By DAVID AVERRE
6 June 2023

Ukraine has accused Russian forces of blowing up a major dam and hydroelectric power station, causing a 'catastrophic' flood that could displace hundreds of thousands of people and cause a nuclear disaster by cutting off cooling to a nuclear power plant.

The Ukrainian Interior Ministry confirmed this morning that Kakhovka dam over the Dnieper river in the south of the country was damaged by several explosions and called for residents of 10 villages on the river's right bank, as well as parts Kherson city downriver, to evacuate their homes.

Both the dam and the hydroelectric power station were captured by Putin's forces as a priority at the start of the Russian invasion on February 24 last year.

*  *  *

Source:  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12164333/What-Kakhovka-dam-Ukraine-destroyed-why.html

[kevindavis007]

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1666036193136455680

[kevindavis007]

https://twitter.com/WarrenPlatts/status/1666041323063857152

[kevindavis007]

from r/UkraineWarVideoReport

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/142afdq/citizens_of_occupied_crimea_show_what_their_tap/

[kevindavis007]

Well, the dam being blown up by the Orcs may cause more problems:

from r/UkraineWarVideoReport

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/142cg1w/the_international_atomic_energy_agency_made_a/




It seems they are going scorched Earth.

[Kamaji]

https://twitter.com/infussambas/status/1666026537320337408

Not getting anything for that link - says the page does not exist.

[kevindavis007]

Not getting anything for that link - says the page does not exist.

The tweet has been taken down...

[PeteS in CA]

That was expected, was it not?

Probably. The top of the dam is/was a roadway that was a major evacuation route for the orcs when they evacuated the area around Kherson city. Destroying the dam denied the Ukrainians an assault route toward the Melitopol-Mariupol area (which would cut off the road supply route to the Crimean Peninsula).
 From the Ukrainian side, I'm not sure assaulting and taking that supply road would be better than using artillery, rockets, and AGMs to wipe out a few convoys, obstruct the road with wreckage, and consume Putin's transport and logistics man-hours in their futile effort to supply the peninsula. Either way, narrowing the orcs's supply options to Sevastopol harbor and the Kerch Strait Bridge - both of which have been attacked before with some success - would be a good goal for the Ukrainians.

[Kamaji]

The tweet has been taken down...

Thanks!

[DB]

One response was that with the river level going down upstream there will be more places to cross it as it drains. Seems thin but possible.

[Kamaji]

One response was that with the river level going down upstream there will be more places to cross it as it drains. Seems thin but possible.

Any ground that was underwater for so long will be thoroughly waterlogged and crossing it with heavy equipment would probably be impossible for a very long period of time.

[bilo]

Sanctions on Russia may not be working, we now know why

European businesses and third countries are actively circumventing sanctions, providing Russia with sanctioned goods and thus helping its war effort.

Berit Lindeman
Secretary General of the Norwegian Helsinki Committee

Ivar Dale
Norwegian Helsinki Committee's Senior Policy Adviser

5 Jun 2023

On February 25, 2022, a day after Russia undertook a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the European Union introduced unprecedented sanctions against the aggressor. The measures were intended to send a clear signal to Moscow that there would be severe consequences for its actions.

*  *  *

If the sanctions are not working the way they ought to, it is because we are actively undermining them. A recently released report by Norway-based risk consultancy Corisk reveals how that is done.

Its analysis of customs data from 12 EU countries, Norway, the UK, the US and Japan shows that the circumvention of export sanctions on Russia amounted to an astonishing 8 billion euros ($8.5bn) in 2022.

Of the countries studied, Germany appears to be the largest exporter of sanctioned goods to Russia; the second largest is Lithuania. The two provide half of the Western goods Moscow should not have access to.

The research reveals that European businesses, and especially German ones, use third countries to sell their products to Russia. This is apparent from the analysis of the export data for sanctioned goods, including luxury items such as jewellery and perfumes, typically enjoyed by the elites in Moscow, cutting-edge technology, like advanced semiconductors and quantum computers, machinery and transportation equipment.

*  *  *

Source:  https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/6/5/sanctions-on-russia-may-not-be-working-we-now-know-why

Why stay in NATO? We would be much better off just aligning ourselves with real allies.

[Smokin Joe]

One response was that with the river level going down upstream there will be more places to cross it as it drains. Seems thin but possible.

Sediment accumulates behind dams, which means any reservoir that has been in place for a long period of time will normally have either a developing freshwater delta at its headwaters, an accumulation of silt and clay throughout, or both, depending on sediment load of the contributing tributaries.

Such 'river bottom mud' is notoriously difficult to traverse with a vehicle, especially heavy equipment, and can be so even on foot.

At times of low water here, for instance, sportsmen have been known to band together and rescue deer that got literally stuck in the mud--no small feat.

[DB]

Sediment accumulates behind dams, which means any reservoir that has been in place for a long period of time will normally have either a developing freshwater delta at its headwaters, an accumulation of silt and clay throughout, or both, depending on sediment load of the contributing tributaries.

Such 'river bottom mud' is notoriously difficult to traverse with a vehicle, especially heavy equipment, and can be so even on foot.

At times of low water here, for instance, sportsmen have been known to band together and rescue deer that got literally stuck in the mud--no small feat.

Yep, just stating what someone posted on Twitter.

[Elderberry]

Europe, US reacts in shock to Russia’s destruction of Kakhovka dam in south Ukraine

World leaders and politicians have reacted to the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant dam by invading Russian forces overnight on June 6, which resulted in dozens of settlements in Ukraine’s southern Kherson Oblast being flooded.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/europe-us-reacts-in-shock-to-russia-s-destruction-of-kakhovka-dam-in-south-ukraine-50329882.html

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has called the incident the biggest man-made disaster in Europe in recent decades.

The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, said he was “shocked by the unprecedented attack on the Nova Kakhovka dam.”

“The destruction of civilian infrastructure clearly qualifies as a war crime – and we will hold Russia and its proxies accountable,” he tweeted.

“Will raise the issue at the European Council in June and propose more assistance to the flooded areas. My thoughts with all the families in Ukraine affected by this catastrophe.”

Secretary General of the Council of Europe Marija Pejčinović Burić also condemned Russia’s destruction of a dam in Ukraine, calling it “criminal and reckless.”

Meanwhile, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that “the destruction of the Kakhovka dam today puts thousands of civilians at risk and causes severe environmental damage.”

“This is an outrageous act, which demonstrates once again the brutality of Russia’s war in Ukraine,” Stoltenberg wrote on Twitter.

UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, who was on a visit to Ukraine on June 6, said it was too early to give a meaningful assessment of the details behind the destruction of the dam in southern Ukraine, but that it had happened because of Russia’s invasion, the Reuters news agency reported.

“We’ll continue to assess the developing situation, but the best thing Russia could do now is withdraw their troops immediately,” Cleverly said.

The demolition of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant dam could also have negative consequences for the occupied Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant. Water from the dam is needed for the plant to receive water for turbine condensers and safety systems.

Ukrhydroenergo, the state hydroelectric power company, has reported that the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant has been completely destroyed and cannot be repaired.

More at link.

[Smokin Joe]

Yep, just stating what someone posted on Twitter.

I knew that Sedimentology course was good for something...

[Maj. Bill Martin]

Why stay in NATO? We would be much better off just aligning ourselves with real allies.

Literally the only time that NATO's Article V was ever invoked was after 9/11.  It was invoked for our benefit, and NATO allies supported us in Afghanistan because of that.

If Russia ends up crippled militarily because of this war, then the major threat to European members of NATO is ended, and the U.S. once again would seem to be the most likely nation to invoke Article V.

[DefiantMassRINO]

Hydro-electric dam?  ... attack on Ukraine electricity grid

[Maj. Bill Martin]

One response was that with the river level going down upstream there will be more places to cross it as it drains. Seems thin but possible.

They already have no problem crossing the river further upstream -- that's how they've managed to keep all their troops in the east supplied, maintained contact with Kharkiv, etc..  No real upside for Ukraine other than more international support.

[Kamaji]

Were any of the Russian defensive lines damaged by the resulting flood?

[kevindavis007]

Were any of the Russian defensive lines damaged by the resulting flood?

Yes

[Timber Rattler]

They already have no problem crossing the river further upstream -- that's how they've managed to keep all their troops in the east supplied, maintained contact with Kharkiv, etc..  No real upside for Ukraine other than more international support.

Which makes me think that the Ukrainians benefitted a lot more from that dam getting blown than the Russians, especially since the Russians' lines around Kherson are now deluged.

[Smokin Joe]

Which makes me think that the Ukrainians benefitted a lot more from that dam getting blown than the Russians, especially since the Russians' lines around Kherson are now deluged.

Move in from upstream, force the Russians to abandon vehicles they cannot maneuver in the mud, come back in a couple weeks and dig the vehicles out...

[Elderberry]

Володимир Зеленський
@ZelenskyyUa

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1666052695445196801?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Russia has been controlling the dam and the entire Kakhovka HPP for more than a year. It is physically impossible to blow it up somehow from the outside, by shelling. It was mined by the Russian occupiers. And they blew it up.

Russia has detonated a bomb of mass environmental destruction. This is the largest man-made environmental disaster in Europe in decades. It is the most dangerous terrorist in the world. And that is why Russia's defeat – a defeat that we’ll ensure anyway – will be the most significant contribution to the security of our region, our Europe and the entire world.

However, don't we know what constantly fuels Russian revanchism? This is the belief of Russia's rulers that Europe will allegedly show weakness. Weakness is the main hope and bet of terrorists.

No more weakness in Europe against the evil of aggression! No more uncertainty about security prospects in Europe! Every step, decision and summit of ours must strengthen us all in our defense against Russian terror. No doubt, the Vilnius #NATOSummit must ensure this.

[Elderberry]

Analysis: Destruction of Kakhovka dam takes Ukraine war into uncharted territory

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/destruction-kakhovka-dam-takes-ukraine-war-into-uncharted-territory-2023-06-06/

        Summary

•   Burst dam threatens humanitarian, environmental disaster

•   Could hobble long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive

•   Kyiv, Moscow trade blame for collapse of massive dam

•   Incident endangers farmland, ecosystems, biodiversity

•   Officials play down threat to nuclear plant cooling


The breach of a huge dam on the front-line Dnipro river has muddied the picture for a much-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive against Russian invaders and threatens an environmental disaster for civilians living in the war zone.

Kyiv and Moscow have blamed each other for the collapse of the Nova Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine that sent floods gushing towards surrounding towns and farmland and forced hundreds of civilians to flee on Tuesday.

With water levels still rising, officials and analysts have begun to count the human and environmental costs for one of the world's most fertile agricultural countries, saying settlements, thousands of people and some rare wildlife species are at risk.

At least 150 tonnes of oil from the dam have leaked into the Dnipro, Ukrainian Environment Minister Ruslan Strilets told a press briefing, and the environmental damage had been estimated at 50 million euros ($53.8 million).

The dam's collapse occurred just as Ukraine was poised to launch a counteroffensive and could complicate the advance of its forces in any assault, analysts said, though Kyiv has not divulged in which direction it plans to strike.

"Bearing in mind Russia is on the strategic defensive and Ukraine on the strategic offensive, in the short term it's an advantage to Russia, definitely," said Ben Barry, senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

"It'll help the Russians until the water subsides because it makes it more difficult for Ukraine to do assault river crossings," he said in a phone interview.

The floodtide inundating the region will prevent the use of heavy weaponry such as tanks for at least a month, said Maciej Matysiak, security expert at the Stratpoints Foundation and ex-deputy chief of Polish military counter-intelligence.

"(This) creates a very good defending position for Russians who expect Ukrainian offensive activity,” Matysiak said.

More at link

[Maj. Bill Martin]

The Russians were holding/occupying the dam, so this one is on them.  That being said, it's far enough downstream that the Ukrainians were unlikely to be a major armored attack there anyway -- they'd first have to take the ground to the east, and once they do that, there really isn't any reason for the Russians to hold this ground anyway.

That being said, it does enable Russia to shift to the east most of the forces they had guarding the downstream area.

[bigheadfred]

Scorched earth

At the beginning of World War II, the DniproHES dam was blown up by the retreating Soviet troops, and a 30-m (100-ft) wave crashed through the breach, sweeping away everything in its path.

https://arheve.org/articles/dniprohes/#:~:text=In%201939%2C%20DniproHES%20reached%20a%20capacity%20of%20560,the%20breach%2C%20sweeping%20away%20everything%20in%20its%20path.

[Elderberry]

Who blew up the Ukraine dam…

Tucker Carlson
@TuckerCarlson

https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1666203439146172419

[DB]

Who blew up the Ukraine dam…

Tucker Carlson
@TuckerCarlson

https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1666203439146172419

Have a short summary?

[Ghost Bear]

Per Artur Rehi, the Russians blew up the dam, and there's video of them doing it:


https://youtu.be/gRbKz_j1rbc

[DB]

So Tucker is wrong again...

[PeteS in CA]

Have a short summary?

Ukrainians are Nazis, Nazis, Nazis!

Putin's a hero rescuing the world from Ukrainians' world conquest plans.

Ok, that was a little hyperbolic.

Here's some really basic facts Carlson would have had to ignore or pretend were unimportant:

* The Russians have occupied and controlled the dam for about a year.

* The damage to the dam and hydro plant were too extensive to be other than due to demolition from the inside.

* The dam had a major road on it, used by the Russians to evacuate the North side of the Dnipro after they lost Kherson

* Blowing up the dam denied its use by the Ukrainians to attack the south side of the river and threaten the  land supply route to the Crimean Peninsula.

* The flooding will render downstream ground on both sides of the river unusable to vehicles, frustrating any Ukrainian attack plans and lessening the possible attack routes the Russians would have to defend.

[DB]

Ukrainians are Nazis, Nazis, Nazis!

Putin's a hero rescuing the world from Ukrainians' world conquest plans.

Ok, that was a little hyperbolic.

Here's some really basic facts Carlson would have had to ignore or pretend were unimportant:

* The Russians have occupied and controlled the dam for about a year.

* The damage to the dam and hydro plant were too extensive to be other than due to demolition from the inside.

* The dam had a major road on it, used by the Russians to evacuate the North side of the Dnipro after they lost Kherson

* Blowing up the dam denied its use by the Ukrainians to attack the south side of the river and threaten the  land supply route to the Crimean Peninsula.

* The flooding will render downstream ground on both sides of the river unusable to vehicles, frustrating any Ukrainian attack plans and lessening the possible attack routes the Russians would have to defend.

That sounds about right... Ghost Bear's post lays bare who did it and why. Russa expects to lose Crimea and they're salting the earth as they go.

[Hoodat]

Russian troops gathering near Obryvka to escape flood waters are being shelled by Ukrainian artillery.

[Hoodat]

Russians retreating from Dnieper.

from r/UkraineWarVideoReport

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/142qj1y/this_is_how_russian_soldiers_left_the_islands/

[Hoodat]

Before / After satellite photos

https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1666168643976036353

[Hoodat]

Before blowing the dam, the Russians raised the water level to a record 17.5 meters in order to maximize the damage.

[Hoodat]

Kherson - 40 miles down stream from dam

from r/UkraineWarVideoReport

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/142bph5/part_of_kherson_city_is_under_water/

[DB]

Clearly the Russians expect to lose Crimea and intend to destroy as much as they can on the way out.

[Hoodat]

Who blew up the Ukraine dam…

Tucker Carlson

The same people who blew it up the last time:



Ukrainian Activists Draw Attention To Little-Known WWII Tragedy

Dmytro Moroz & Claire Bigg  |  August 23, 2013  |  09:13 GMT


The dam in the southern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhya is shown after being blown up by Stalin's secret police in 1941. From 20,000 to 100,000 people died in the ensuing flood.

In 1941, as Nazi German troops swept through Soviet-era Ukraine, Josef Stalin's secret police blew up a hydroelectric dam in the southern city of Zaporizhzhya to slow the Nazi advance.

The explosion flooded villages along the banks of the Dnieper River, killing thousands of civilians.  .  .

https://www.rferl.org/a/european-remembrance-day-ukraine-little-known-ww2-tragedy/25083847.html

[Hoodat]

That sounds about right... Ghost Bear's post lays bare who did it and why. Russa expects to lose Crimea and they're salting the earth as they go.

I don't believe Russia expects to lose Crimea.  They did this to better defend it.  Crimea is much more important to them than Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, or Kherson.

[Cyber Liberty]

I don't believe Russia expects to lose Crimea.  They did this to better defend it.  Crimea is much more important to them than Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, or Kherson.

It will be ironic if Russia loses Crimea.  Just deserts. Delivered to whichever beach house Obama lives in today.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

I don't believe Russia expects to lose Crimea.  They did this to better defend it.  Crimea is much more important to them than Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, or Kherson.

I agree.  The territory lost to this flooding is not land that Russia valued much anyway, although the destruction of the canal is still significant.

[sneakypete]

Russians retreating from Dnieper.

from r/UkraineWarVideoReport

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/142qj1y/this_is_how_russian_soldiers_left_the_islands/

@Hoodat

They  are lucky  this isn't Dec or Jan.

[Kamaji]

Russia boasts it has destroyed Leopard tanks... but is mocked by analysts who say they've actually blown up TRACTORS

Russian defence chiefs were mocked for claiming to destroy a Leopard 2 tank

By RACHAEL BUNYAN  and WILL STEWART
7 June 2023

Russian defence chiefs have been mocked for claiming to destroy a German-supplied lethal Leopard 2 tank - when in fact they had blown up tractors in Ukrainian fields.

The ridiculing was led by head of Wagner private army Yevgeny Prigozhin, who sees it as yet more evidence of blundering incompetence by Putin's defence chiefs and army.

The Russian defence ministry hailed 'footage of the destruction of foreign armoured vehicles, including Leopard tanks'.

But in reality, military analysts say the footage showed Russia blasting farm vehicles with a missile fired from a Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopter.

In the video, a Russian crew member onboard the helicopter can be heard asking: 'What kind of machine is that?'

One soldier can be heard saying: 'Let's hit it', to which the other responds: 'Ready to hit it.'

They then could be heard celebrating the strike and saying: 'Yeah, direct hit.'

The defence ministry's propaganda team told the Russian media that the footage shows 'the destruction of foreign armoured vehicles, including Leopard tanks'.

*  *  *

Source:  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12168415/Russia-boasts-destroyed-Leopard-tanks-analysts-say-theyve-actually-blown-TRACTORS.html

[Kamaji]

I don't believe Russia expects to lose Crimea.  They did this to better defend it.  Crimea is much more important to them than Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, or Kherson.

True; however, Russia also expected to beat Ukraine in a matter of days and to waltz into Kyiv as conquering heroes.

[PeteS in CA]

This nearly 3 minute video looks at and analyzes damage to the dam, from a non-engineer perspective,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DhVhz_NocNM . The person making the video is pro-Ukrainian, BUT generally makes an effort to sort through propaganda, over-claiming, and fog-of-war sourced from both sides.

[Kamaji]

Russian troops ‘swept away’ by flooding from Ukraine dam collapse

By Snejana Farberov
June 7, 2023

Russian troops were seen being swept away by raging floodwaters and running for their lives after the Nova Khakovka dam collapsed, according to a Ukrainian officer.

Capt. Andrei Pidlisnyi told CNN that at the time of the dam breach early Tuesday, “no one on the Russian side was able to get away. All the regiments the Russians had on that side were flooded.”

The officer suggested that Vladimir Putin’s soldiers may not have received an advance warning of what he claimed to be a Russian attack.

According to Pidlisnyi, the flooding killed or injured many enemy troops stationed on the east bank of the Dnipro River, which is under Russian control.

Russia and Ukraine blamed each other for the destruction of the dam, with the Kremlin calling it an act of “sabotage by the Kyiv regime,” and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky leveling an accusation of “ecocide” — or ecological genocide — at Moscow.

*  *  *

Source:  https://nypost.com/2023/06/07/russians-swept-away-by-flooding-from-ukraine-dam-collapse/

[Maj. Bill Martin]

The Russians couldn't have tried to deny responsibility if they'd moved their troops out shortly before the dam broke.

My guess is that the actual casualties among Russian troops will be less than a couple of days fighting in the Donbass.

Militarily, this lets the Russians take almost all their troops who were west of the dam, and move them to the east where they can strengthen the lines protecting western Kherson Oblast, and ultimately Crimea.