Will the Pentagon Ever Get Serious About the Size of China’s Nuclear Force?
By Mark B. Schneider
December 15, 2022
Military-Today
In November 2022, the Commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet Admiral Samuel Paparo, stated that China’s Jin-class submarines (Type 094) are “equipped with JL-3 intercontinental ballistic missiles.” The press coverage focused on the increased range of the JL-3 compared to the JL-2. This is certainly important, but it is not the most significant threat issue associated with this development. In August 2021, then-STRATCOM commander Admiral Charles Richard reported that there were “six second-generation JIN-class ballistic missile submarines with JL-3 SLBMs…” According to the 2020 edition of the National Air and Intelligence Center’s (Air Force Intelligence) report on “The Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat,” the JL-3 carries multiple warheads. According to a January 2020 report in the South China Morning Post, “Unlike the previous three [Jl-3] tests, which used a conventional Type 032 submarine, the latest launch was conducted using the Type 094 nuclear submarine, according to one source.”[1] Yet, according to the Pentagon’s 2021 report on China’s military power, “Each Jin class SSBN can carry up to 12 JL-2 SLBMs.”
Previous Pentagon China reports gave no indication that Chinese Type 094 submarines were carrying the JL-3; that is, until the November 2022 edition. Indeed, the 2021 Pentagon China report hinted that the JL-3 was not going to be deployed until China deployed its Type 096 submarine: “The PRC’s next-generation Type 096 SSBN, which likely began construction in the early 2020s, will reportedly carry a new type of SLBM.” In June 2019, Bill Gertz quoted a “defense official” as saying that while they were not sure about retrofit, “It’s our understanding that the JL-3 will be on the new Type 096 [ballistic missile submarine], which we expect to begin construction in the 2020s.” Thus, today, we see a MIRVed Chinese SLBM capability almost a decade earlier and on a larger scale than the Defense Department reportedly thought would happen in 2019.
The 2021 Pentagon China report also stated that “the PRC could field more than 1,000 nuclear warheads by the end of the decade.” The October 2022 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) report adopts this warhead number, saying that China by 2030 will have “at least 1,000.” This could end up as a gross underestimation of Chinese nuclear warhead numbers. The 2022 NPR apparently does not even take into account the much earlier than expected deployment and, apparently, much larger scale deployment of the MIRVed JL-3.
https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2022/12/15/will_the_pentagon_ever_get_serious_about_the_size_of_chinas_nuclear_force_870335.html
