A Look At Climate Models: “Obviously Do Not Represent The Physics”…”Not At All Capable”

[rangerrebew]

A Look At Climate Models: “Obviously Do Not Represent The Physics”…”Not At All Capable”
By P Gosselin on 30. November 2022

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Models still remain “crude statistical tools”…”not at all capable of reliably informing the world’s decision makers”

What Do The Current Climate Models Really Do?

By Die kalte Sonne, Frank Bosse
(Translated/edited by P. Gosselin)

A recent article describes the performance of upcoming models, made possible by an improvement in computing power over current high performance computers: the “exaflop” generation, i.e. 1 exaflop =10 to the power of 18 = 1 trillion floating point operations per second. They should then also make local climate calculations possible, primarily through a narrower grid and stored physics where today parameterization is still required.

That is pie in the sky, much more interesting are the statements about the models so far in the article.

Tim Palmer, Oxford professor puts it this way:

https://notrickszone.com/2022/11/30/a-look-at-climate-models-obviously-do-not-represent-the-physics-not-at-all-capable/

[Kamaji]

Tim Palmer, Oxford professor puts it this way:

"A highly nonlinear system where you have biases which are bigger than the signals you’re trying to predict is really a recipe for unreliability.”

Many of the laws and physical equations of the climate system are known, it’s just that people haven’t been able to implement them, for computational time reasons. Björn Stevens of Hamburg’s Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) puts it this way:

"We were somehow forbidden to use this understanding by the limits of computation.”

And further:


"People sometimes forget how far away some of the fundamental processes in our existing models are from our physical understanding.”

[Free Vulcan]

Yes, finally.