Evidence Mounts That the House of Representatives Is a Lost Cause for

[mystery-ak]

Evidence Mounts That the House of Representatives Is a Lost Cause for Democrats
By Bonchie | 9:00 AM on October 12, 2022


As summer came to a close and November’s mid-term approached, a narrative began to build suggesting that Democrats could retain the House or limit their losses to just a few seats. That was largely driven by political sites like Nate Silver’s that produce garbage-in, garbage-out election models that completely ignored the fundamentals of the electorate.

But as I’ve said many times, ignoring the fundamentals in favor of historically awful polling is foolhardy, and evidence is now mounting that the House of Representatives is now a lost cause for the Democratic Party. The good vibes have been replaced by dogfights in districts that aren’t even supposed to be in play, and there’s every reason to think things get worse as election day approaches.

For example, in Rhode Island’s 2nd District, Republican Allan Fung leads Democrat Seth Magaziner by 8 points.

https://twitter.com/TedNesi/status/1579775313571102721

That poll was a red alert for Democrats given that even after you allow for the changes made in redistricting, Joe Biden would have won it by a whopping 14 points. That is not a district a Republican is supposed to be competitive in if Democrats have any shot at holding the House, much less a district a Republican is supposed to be leading by eight in. A poll showing Fung tied would have been bad enough.

It doesn’t stop there, though. In Oregon’s 6th district, the news isn’t much better for Democrats. After districting is taken into account, Joe Biden would have it by 13 points in 2020. Today, Republican Mike Erickson leads by 5 points.

more
https://redstate.com/bonchie/2022/10/12/evidence-mounts-that-the-house-of-representatives-is-a-lost-cause-for-democrats-n641936

[Fishrrman]

Even if the guy running as a "Republican" is little more than a milquetoast, a victory in Rhode Island would be a very welcome win.

[The_Reader_David]

Even if the guy running as a "Republican" is little more than a milquetoast, a victory in Rhode Island would be a very welcome win.

Exactly.  (Which is the point of the old Buckley dictum:  the GOP should always nominate the most conservative electable candidate.  How conservative the most conservative electable candidate is will vary from place to place, which is why RINOs who manage to get elected in solidly 'Rat territory should not be decried as traitors to the cause, while running a RINO in, say, Kansas or Oklahoma would be a complete waste of an election cycle.)

[corbe]