'Caution flag': Democrats overperform in special elections, but November's still anyone's game
by Virginia Aabram, Congressional Reporter
September 02, 2022 04:19 PM
Mary Peltola's win in Alaska's special election on Wednesday appears to bolster what election analysts have suspected for weeks — Democrats' political fortunes are improving in what was expected to be a red wave election year.
Peltola, the first Democrat to win statewide office since 2008, bested ex-Gov. Sarah Palin, a Republican, in a contest to finish out the term of Rep. Don Young (R-AK), who died in March.
The special election is the fifth since Roe v. Wade was overturned in June and follows a surprise win for Democrat Pat Ryan in New York's 19th District, which was considered a bellwether for November's midterm elections.
Democrats lost the three other races, each in right-leaning districts, but beneath those defeats is a striking trend: Democrats have lost by smaller margins than President Joe Biden did in 2020, suggesting the party has been able to turn out its base after the Supreme Court rolled back abortion rights at the federal level.
Combined with a string of legislative victories these last few months, Democrats are feeling more optimistic heading into November's midterm elections.
Earlier this year, political handicappers forecast that Republicans would decidedly win back the House and had better-than-even odds of reclaiming the Senate against the backdrop of high inflation and low approval ratings for President Joe Biden. But with the primaries largely over, the landscape has shifted: Republicans are expected to secure a smaller House majority, and Democrats are now favored to keep the Senate.
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