Ukraine 3

[Maj. Bill Martin]

I think it's possible that Ukraine has lost the opportunity to expel the Russian invaders because Biden and NATO were so slow in providing the offensive weaponry needed. I've seen regular updates on Russian casualties but Ukraine has been losing soldiers as well. April is supposed to be the month the big counteroffensive begins so we should find out in a month or two if Ukraine has enough left to push the Russians back.

It's also a question of who blinks first.  Putin himself isn't going to order a pullback as long as he is in power, but if he decides to give it up or something, I can see a successor just wanting to end it.  Probably some agreed-upon referendums in Crimea and the Donbass.  Though I think if they're legit, the Ukrainians likely would win both.  A post-war future in a country tied closely to the rest of Europe likely looks better than one tied to Russia/China.

[bilo]

It's also a question of who blinks first.  Putin himself isn't going to order a pullback as long as he is in power, but if he decides to give it up or something, I can see a successor just wanting to end it.  Probably some agreed-upon referendums in Crimea and the Donbass.  Though I think if they're legit, the Ukrainians likely would win both.  A post-war future in a country tied closely to the rest of Europe likely looks better than one tied to Russia/China.

I agree with your points, except I think Russia has changed the demographics in Crimea to the point they might win an honest referendum. Russia is truly evil for a variety of reasons among them being forcefully removing Ukrainians from conquered territory and relocating them in Russia as well as indoctrinating the youth in school.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

I agree with your points, except I think Russia has changed the demographics in Crimea to the point they might win an honest referendum. Russia is truly evil for a variety of reasons among them being forcefully removing Ukrainians from conquered territory and relocating them in Russia as well as indoctrinating the youth in school.

Right.  I mean, I understand that the demographics are not the same as when Crimea freely voted to become part of an independent Ukraine back in 1991.  I'm just thinking that regardless of whether they are ethnically Russian or ethnically Ukrainian, a lot of people might rather put their eggs in the basket of Europe rather than Asia.

[sneakypete]

I get that this is a divisive issue, and I get why.  I'm just worried that if we let Ukraine get swallowed, we may look back on this and realize that giving up on an ally who was actually willing to fight may have been a really big mistake.  We may find ourselves with a Europe that looks much different, and much worse.

@Maj. Bill Martin

I couldn't agree more.

The ONLY way to keep a bully (Russia) from threatening you on a regular basis is standing up to him.

Even mo betta is having  someone  ELSE  stand up to him,with you not supplying any of the blood that will be  shed. Equipment such as armaments ends up either being used or declared obsolete  and scrapped,so why not allow someone else who IS NOW standing up to the bully,and let them use it to the benefit of both themselves and everybody else on the planet but China?

[sneakypete]

It's also a question of who blinks first.  Putin himself isn't going to order a pullback as long as he is in power, but if he decides to give it up or something, I can see a successor just wanting to end it.  Probably some agreed-upon referendums in Crimea and the Donbass.  Though I think if they're legit, the Ukrainians likely would win both.  A post-war future in a country tied closely to the rest of Europe likely looks better than one tied to Russia/China.

@Maj. Bill Martin

Agreed,but  Putin is NOT going to blink first. He would rather see the entire Neo-Soviet armed forces destroyed first.

He is not only a dictator,he is a megalomaniac. It will take a bullet in the head for him to step down.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

@Maj. Bill Martin

Agreed,but  Putin is NOT going to blink first. He would rather see the entire Neo-Soviet armed forces destroyed first.

He is not only a dictator,he is a megalomaniac. It will take a bullet in the head for him to step down.

Not sure about his health.  The election is next year, and its possible he won't run.

[sneakypete]

Not sure about his health.  The election is next year, and its possible he won't run.

@Maj. Bill Martin

Ahhh,for the good old days,when a Soviet official was reported to have "health problems",and that meant he was being executed in the basement of the Lubyanka prison.

[Timber Rattler]

Secret document reveals Russia’s 10-year plan to destabilize Moldova

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/16/europe/russia-moldova-secret-document-intl-cmd/index.html

A secret plan drawn up by Russia’s security service, the FSB, lays out detailed options to destabilize Moldova – including supporting pro-Russian groups, utilizing the Orthodox Church and threatening to cut off supplies of natural gas.

The document appears to have been drawn up to thwart Moldova’s tilt to the West, which includes closer relations with NATO and an application to join the European Union. It repeatedly refers to the importance of preventing Moldova from joining NATO.

(snip)

The document sets out a 10-year strategy for bringing Moldova, a former Soviet republic sandwiched between Ukraine and Romania, within Russia’s sphere of influence.

The plan includes making Moldova dependent on imports of Russian gas and stirring up social conflict, as well as trying to block Moldova’s efforts to gain influence in the pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria, where some 1,500 Russian soldiers are stationed.

The five-page document is separated into multiple headings with short-, medium- and long-term aims. Among the immediate objectives are “support for Moldovan political forces advocating constructive relations with the Russian Federation,” and “neutralization of the initiatives of the Republic of Moldova aimed at eliminating the Russian military presence in Transnistria.”

Medium-term goals include “opposition to the expansionist policy of Romania in the Republic of Moldova” and “opposition to cooperation between the Republic of Moldova and NATO.”

The FSB document lays out long term goals including the “creation of stable pro-Russian groups of influence in the Moldovan political and economic elites” and “the formation of a negative attitude towards NATO.”

Excerpt.

[Kamaji]

Secret document reveals Russia’s 10-year plan to destabilize Moldova

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/16/europe/russia-moldova-secret-document-intl-cmd/index.html

Excerpt.

And we kept getting told that it’s just a little border dispute between Russia and Ukraine.

[mountaineer]

Donbass Devushka
@PeImeniPusha
The United States opposes the ceasefire in Ukraine and rejects the proposals put forward by China to resolve the crisis. This was announced on Thursday at an online briefing by the coordinator for strategic communications at the National Security Council (NSC) of the White House, John Kirby.

https://twitter.com/simonateba/status/1636697822786379782

[sneakypete]

A secret plan drawn up by Russia’s security service, the FSB, lays out detailed options to destabilize Moldova – including supporting pro-Russian groups, utilizing the Orthodox Church and threatening to cut off supplies of natural gas.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/16/europe/russia-moldova-secret-document-intl-cmd/index.html

Excerpt.

I was in Moscow during the 1st election after the fall of Communism. The head of the Russian Orthodox Church,as well as a flock of Priests and a gaggle of Nuns were in Red Square,supporting the Communist candidate for President against Yeltsin.

When I asked the  Russian businessmen in the lobby of the hotel about it,they told me that the Communists had promised the head of the RO Church that they would keep all other religions out of Russia if the RO Church would support them publicly.

The end result was there were a hoard of Nuns and Priests there,as well as the CMMFIC,supporting the Communist cause.

In FACT, "Priest in the RO Church" was a KGB career field.

Remember,priests hear confessions about crimes planned and committed.

[sneakypete]

Well,we know know where some of the money sent to Ukraine went.

It will probably be some of the best-spent money,too.

[Kamaji]

https://twitter.com/simonateba/status/1636697822786379782

The US opposes the Chinese proposal for ceasefire, which is intended to cement in place the current Russian occupation of sovereign Ukraine territory.

Seems to me the only people in favor of such a ceasefire are those who support the orcs and their attempt to recreate the Soviet Union by force of arms.

Do you support the violent reintegration of Ukraine, Moldova, and the other former SSRs into a newly reconstituted Soviet Union?

[Maj. Bill Martin]

The only prediction I've made so far in this war was saying back in June (on TOS) that the Russians would end up pulling out of Kherson because it was indefensible.  Some other guys, mostly former officers or NCO's themselves, agreed despite the ridicule from the pro-Russia club. We could read maps and draw inferences, and we were right.  So now, I'm making a second.

I think the Russians are in trouble.

The Ukrainian generals aren't stupid. Quite the contrary - they've outgeneraled the Russians this entire war. And one key thing they've done is always shown a willingness to trade space to inflict disproportionate casualties on the Russians.   Bleed the attackers, then counterattack.

Those same generals would have withdrawn from Bakhmut if the loss ratio was unfavorable, or if they though there was a real risk of getting cut off. But they haven't. Instead, they've deliberately stayed in that meat grinder and not traded space, of which they have plenty.

That tells me 1) the loss ratio is heavily in favor of the Ukrainians favor, 2) they don't believe the Russians can complete an encirclement of Ukrainian forces defending Bakhmut, which has been the Russian goal for more nearly 9 months now, and 3) the Ukrainians have the forces available for a devastating counterattack if 2) did happen to occur.  That last point is key.

They are staying in Bakhmut to bleed the Russians deliberately, and make those exposed attack formations ripe for a counterattack.

On the Russian side, the continued attacks on a relatively minor objective like Bakhmut - and no attacks of substance anywhere else - shriek of a lack of mobile offensive combat power.  Normally, If you had an overall force advantage, you'd engage in some other areas to force the Ukrainians to pull troops away from Bakhmut.  But they haven't.  The Russians have put all their offensive eggs into that one basket because it is the only basket they've got.  They don't have the strength to push anywhere else, and they are bleeding themselves white trying to achieve success in the only sector where they have any offensive combat power remaining.

A tipping point is going to be reached, when the Russians finally are sufficiently exhausted that they have to stop, that's when the Ukrainians will counterattack. Hard. And that's when the depths of the Russian problem will become apparent.  Regimental (depleted as they are) level collapses along the front.  Minimum.

[Kamaji]

The only prediction I've made so far in this war was saying back in June (on TOS) that the Russians would end up pulling out of Kherson because it was indefensible.  Some other guys, mostly former officers or NCO's themselves, agreed despite the ridicule from the pro-Russia club. We could read maps and draw inferences, and we were right.  So now, I'm making a second.

I think the Russians are in trouble.

The Ukrainian generals aren't stupid. Quite the contrary - they've outgeneraled the Russians this entire war. They've always shown a willingness to trade space to inflict disproportionate casualties on the Russians.
They'd have withdrawn from Bakhmut if the loss ratio was unfavorable, or if they though there was a real risk of getting cut off. But they haven't. Instead, they've deliberately stayed in that meat grinder and not traded space, of which they have plenty.

That tells me 1) the loss ratio is in their favor, 2) they don't believe the Russians can complete an encirclement of Ukrainian forces defending Bakhmut, and 3) the Ukrainians have the forces available for a devastating counterattack if 2) did happen to occur.

They are deliberately bleeding the Russians.

On the Russian side, the continued attacks on a relatively minor objective like Bakhmut - and no attacks of substance anywhere else - shriek of a lack of mobile offensive combat power.  Normally, If you had an overall force advantage, you'd engage in some other areas to force the Ukrainians to pull troops away from Bakhmut.  But they haven't.  The Russians have put all their offensive eggs into that one basket because it is the only basket they've got.

A tipping point is going to be reached, and then the Ukrainians will counterattack. Hard. And that's when the depths of the Russian problem will become apparent.  Regimental (depleted as they are ) level collapses along the front.  Minimum.

[Smokin Joe]

The only prediction I've made so far in this war was saying back in June (on TOS) that the Russians would end up pulling out of Kherson because it was indefensible.  Some other guys, mostly former officers or NCO's themselves, agreed despite the ridicule from the pro-Russia club. We could read maps and draw inferences, and we were right.  So now, I'm making a second.

I think the Russians are in trouble.

The Ukrainian generals aren't stupid. Quite the contrary - they've outgeneraled the Russians this entire war. And one key thing they've done is always shown a willingness to trade space to inflict disproportionate casualties on the Russians.   Bleed the attackers, then counterattack.

Those same generals would have withdrawn from Bakhmut if the loss ratio was unfavorable, or if they though there was a real risk of getting cut off. But they haven't. Instead, they've deliberately stayed in that meat grinder and not traded space, of which they have plenty.

That tells me 1) the loss ratio is heavily in favor of the Ukrainians favor, 2) they don't believe the Russians can complete an encirclement of Ukrainian forces defending Bakhmut, which has been the Russian goal for more nearly 9 months now, and 3) the Ukrainians have the forces available for a devastating counterattack if 2) did happen to occur.  That last point is key.

They are deliberately bleeding the Russians.

On the Russian side, the continued attacks on a relatively minor objective like Bakhmut - and no attacks of substance anywhere else - shriek of a lack of mobile offensive combat power.  Normally, If you had an overall force advantage, you'd engage in some other areas to force the Ukrainians to pull troops away from Bakhmut.  But they haven't.  The Russians have put all their offensive eggs into that one basket because it is the only basket they've got.  They don't have the strength to push anywhere else, and they are bleeding themselves white trying to achieve success in the only sector where they have any offensive combat power remaining.

A tipping point is going to be reached, when the Russians finally are sufficiently exhausted that they have to stop, that's when the Ukrainians will counterattack. Hard. And that's when the depths of the Russian problem will become apparent.  Regimental (depleted as they are) level collapses along the front.  Minimum.

While I like your analysis, I think the Russians are paying dearly for a delaying action at Bakhmut, trying to consolidate a force capable of the sort of offensive you outline if they had the present combat power to do it. That force, however, will be composed mostly of reconstituted older armor that would be most effective against third-world forces, not ones equipped with much more modern equipment. Only literally running the Ukrainians out of ammo and shooting their gun barrels smooth will defeat them, and it is a costly proposition for Russia, as they will lose a generation in that meat grinder.

But then, old school Russian tactics seem more aimed at drowning those they attack in the blood of Russian troops.

[bilo]

Right.  I mean, I understand that the demographics are not the same as when Crimea freely voted to become part of an independent Ukraine back in 1991.  I'm just thinking that regardless of whether they are ethnically Russian or ethnically Ukrainian, a lot of people might rather put their eggs in the basket of Europe rather than Asia.

You would thinks so.

[sneakypete]

The only prediction I've made so far in this war was saying back in June (on TOS) that the Russians would end up pulling out of Kherson because it was indefensible.  Some other guys, mostly former officers or NCO's themselves, agreed despite the ridicule from the pro-Russia club. We could read maps and draw inferences, and we were right.  So now, I'm making a second.

I think the Russians are in trouble.

The Ukrainian generals aren't stupid. Quite the contrary - they've outgeneraled the Russians this entire war. And one key thing they've done is always shown a willingness to trade space to inflict disproportionate casualties on the Russians.   Bleed the attackers, then counterattack.

Those same generals would have withdrawn from Bakhmut if the loss ratio was unfavorable, or if they though there was a real risk of getting cut off. But they haven't. Instead, they've deliberately stayed in that meat grinder and not traded space, of which they have plenty.

That tells me 1) the loss ratio is heavily in favor of the Ukrainians favor, 2) they don't believe the Russians can complete an encirclement of Ukrainian forces defending Bakhmut, which has been the Russian goal for more nearly 9 months now, and 3) the Ukrainians have the forces available for a devastating counterattack if 2) did happen to occur.  That last point is key.

They are deliberately bleeding the Russians.

On the Russian side, the continued attacks on a relatively minor objective like Bakhmut - and no attacks of substance anywhere else - shriek of a lack of mobile offensive combat power.  Normally, If you had an overall force advantage, you'd engage in some other areas to force the Ukrainians to pull troops away from Bakhmut.  But they haven't.  The Russians have put all their offensive eggs into that one basket because it is the only basket they've got.  They don't have the strength to push anywhere else, and they are bleeding themselves white trying to achieve success in the only sector where they have any offensive combat power remaining.

A tipping point is going to be reached, when the Russians finally are sufficiently exhausted that they have to stop, that's when the Ukrainians will counterattack. Hard. And that's when the depths of the Russian problem will become apparent.  Regimental (depleted as they are) level collapses along the front.  Minimum.

@Maj. Bill Martin

Agree 100 percent.

The Russians will lose BECAUSE THEY ARE SOVIETS. Being Soviets,all operations are conceived,written,and approved by both  the General Officers  in the Kremlin instead of the senior officer in the field,and even after the Neo-Soviet staff officers come up with a  plan,it has to be approved by the politicians.

The Neo-Soviets have the same battle order as the original Soviets. Damn the causalities,charge straight ahead and let the KBG "Blocking Guards" who are in the rear of every  Neo-Soviet attack gun down anyone that tried to retreat.

I know dissent has been brutally crushed by the Soviets since the early 1900's,but back then  the conscripts they drafted to lead charges were pretty ignorant of the world outside their borders,and believed everything the officials told them.

That is NOT the case today,and if this keeps up,it wouldn't surprise me to  see a Second Soviet Revolution.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

While I like your analysis, I think the Russians are paying dearly for a delaying action at Bakhmut, trying to consolidate a force capable of the sort of offensive you outline if they had the present combat power to do it. That force, however, will be composed mostly of reconstituted older armor that would be most effective against third-world forces, not ones equipped with much more modern equipment. Only literally running the Ukrainians out of ammo and shooting their gun barrels smooth will defeat them, and it is a costly proposition for Russia, as they will lose a generation in that meat grinder.

But then, old school Russian tactics seem more aimed at drowning those they attack in the blood of Russian troops.

Ther're definitely in trouble.

Since the big gains of the initial assault early last year, the Russians have lost at Kyiv, in Chernihiv, at Kharkiv, and then at Kherson.  The pressure on their generals to show Putin a victory somewhere in the last 6 months must have been incredible, especially since there have been so many predictions from Putin allies that the Ukrainians were about to fall apart.  But...nothing.  Those Russian generals haven't been able to give him or the Russian people a single victory of significance despite throwing troops into a meatgrinder and losing literally thousands of first line armored vehicles.  The only logical explanation for their failure to get one victory of note since last spring is that they just can't.  And to keep plugging away on that single axis, against an enemy dug-in at Bakhmut, with no spoiling attacks elsewhere to drain off Ukrainian strength so they can get a breakthrough...that just looks like desperation at this point.  Clubber Lang in the third round against Rocky -- punched out, and still going ahead because there isn't an alternative.

As you mentioned, they're literally rolling T-62's out of museums and using them to try to re-equip some of their Guards tanks units.  And the Guards units have always had the absolute best equipment in the Russian army, so if the best they're getting is 40-50 year old T-62's, there must be nothing left for the rest of the Russian Army.  They never took proper care of their reserve stocks, and it you let that stuff just sit around for decades in bare warehouses or even outside, wires and batteries corrode, rubber dry rots, and rust takes over.

When those old T-62's are being faced by Leopard II's from Germany and Challengers from the U.K., it's going to get ugly.

[Smokin Joe]

Ther're definitely in trouble.

Since the big gains of the initial assault early last year, the Russians have lost at Kyiv, in Chernihiv, at Kharkiv, and then at Kherson.  The pressure on their generals to show Putin a victory somewhere in the last 6 months must have been incredible, especially since there have been so many predictions from Putin allies that the Ukrainians were about to fall apart.  But...nothing.  Those Russian generals haven't been able to give him or the Russian people a single victory of significance despite throwing troops into a meatgrinder and losing literally thousands of first line armored vehicles.  The only logical explanation for their failure to get one victory of note since last spring is that they just can't.  And to keep plugging away on that single axis, against an enemy dug-in at Bakhmut, with no spoiling attacks elsewhere to drain off Ukrainian strength so they can get a breakthrough...that just looks like desperation at this point.  Clubber Lang in the third round against Rocky -- punched out, and still going ahead because there isn't an alternative.

As you mentioned, they're literally rolling T-62's out of museums and using them to try to re-equip some of their Guards tanks units.  And the Guards units have always had the absolute best equipment in the Russian army, so if the best they're getting is 40-50 year old T-62's, there must be nothing left for the rest of the Russian Army.  They never took proper care of their reserve stocks, and it you let that stuff just sit around for decades in bare warehouses or even outside, wires and batteries corrode, rubber dry rots, and rust takes over.

When those old T-62's are being faced by Leopard II's from Germany and Challengers from the U.K., it's going to get ugly.

The only hope they have is to literally run the Ukrainians out of Ammo, but to add insult to injury, the Ukrainians are as or more adept than the current crop of conscripts at using scrounged/captured/rehabilitated Russian equipment.

Unless Putin has something up his sleeve (like the Chinese lurking across the Yalu in Korea) he's in a bind.

Even if that's the case, Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition could be back on the charts, so long as we (and other European Countries who know what the stakes are eventually if Ukraine is overrun) continue to keep them supplied while maintaining sufficient reserves for ourselves in case another front opens up.
Maybe this is analogous to 1916 or 1940, but all things considered, ramping up war production has potential to put more people back to work, if we can get the Environonsense out of the way for the war effort..
Granted, economically, it's like feeding a slot machine (you only get back a percentage of what you put in and eventually go broke unless there's a big payoff) but ceding the territory and resources which would enable Putin to build back better with us still being in an economic mess looks like an even worse path.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

The only hope they have is to literally run the Ukrainians out of Ammo, but to add insult to injury, the Ukrainians are as or more adept than the current crop of conscripts at using scrounged/captured/rehabilitated Russian equipment.

Unless Putin has something up his sleeve (like the Chinese lurking across the Yalu in Korea) he's in a bind.

Even if that's the case, Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition could be back on the charts, so long as we (and other European Countries who know what the stakes are eventually if Ukraine is overrun) continue to keep them supplied while maintaining sufficient reserves for ourselves in case another front opens up.
Maybe this is analogous to 1916 or 1940, but all things considered, ramping up war production has potential to put more people back to work, if we can get the Environonsense out of the way for the war effort..
Granted, economically, it's like feeding a slot machine (you only get back a percentage of what you put in and eventually go broke unless there's a big payoff) but ceding the territory and resources which would enable Putin to build back better with us still being in an economic mess looks like an even worse path.

It's helped highlight some real weaknesses in our procurement and ability to ramp up production in the event of war, so hopefully we can square that away for the future.

Strategically, a win in Ukraine leaves NATO much stronger, Russia much weaker, and China much less likely to try anything.

[dfwgator]

but all things considered, ramping up war production has potential to put more people back to work, if we can get the Environonsense out of the way for the war effort..
 

Yeah, good luck with all that.

[Smokin Joe]

It's helped highlight some real weaknesses in our procurement and ability to ramp up production in the event of war, so hopefully we can square that away for the future.

Strategically, a win in Ukraine leaves NATO much stronger, Russia much weaker, and China much less likely to try anything.

I like the idea of revitalizing our 'smokestack' industry. We have the resources, if we use them. It's also time to put a halt to some of the Environonsense. There is a point where clean is clean enough, and those thresholds were well defined but have been ramped up even more as if those minute increments are a significant improvement. Often, they are just doubling down on previous standards which were entirely adequate needlessly, and it was done in increments not to improve health (otherwise the standards would have been set at a singe point they actually needed to be at to be nonhazardous). Instead, the goal was the death of a thousand cuts, where today's refit would be deemed insufficient tomorrow, and another expensive refit demanded. No better strategy to drive industry offshore because it is a tax that is not a tax.

If the environmental standard was nPPB, then that should be sufficient. If what is needed is 0.n, then that should have been the standard to begin with. Not successive increments of .8n, .6n , etc. to bleed the operation to death in a series of refits made necessary by edict.

And at this point, I'm not sure that the people demanding all that were not on a foreign payroll to begin with.

[sneakypete]

It's helped highlight some real weaknesses in our procurement and ability to ramp up production in the event of war, so hopefully we can square that away for the future.

Strategically, a win in Ukraine leaves NATO much stronger, Russia much weaker, and China much less likely to try anything.

@Maj. Bill Martin

And THAT,my friend,is a win-win in the book of anyone who isn't a dedicated socialist/communist.

With any luck at all,those who are may even become suicidal. Win/win.

[sneakypete]

And at this point, I'm not sure that the people demanding all that were not on a foreign payroll to begin with.

@Smokin Joe

"We iz da wurld.......
We iz da peep-pulls......"