The farce of the ‘referendum’ in the Donbas
Agata Wierzbowska-Miazga Tadeusz Iwański Piotr Żochowski | 2014-05-14On 11 May pro-Russian separatists organised a ‘referendum’ on the sovereignty of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, the results of which (89.07% and 96.2% respectively ‘in favour’) were falsified, and whose voting processes did not meet democratic standards. On 12 May the Donetsk and Lugansk separatists adopted a resolution on the sovereignty of the ‘Donetsk People's Republic’ and the ‘Lugansk Republic People’s’, and started talks about unification and the creation of a so-called entity of Novorossiya (a term from Russian imperial ideology in the late eighteenth century, defining the southern and eastern regions of today's Ukraine as a part of Russia). The Ukrainian central authorities did not take any measures to prevent the separatists holding the vote, and the anti-terrorist operation which has been ongoing for several weeks with army and Interior Ministry forces has once again proven to be very limited.
The destabilisation of eastern Ukraine, which has been continuing for more than two months, and the government’s inept attempts to resolve the situation, have had the effect of deepening social discontent and boosting anti-government sentiments both among the public and the local elites, including the representatives of the regional state administration. Moscow has effectively recognised the results of the separatist referenda; from the Russian point of view, the voting and the results have been successful propaganda exercises which will strengthen separatist activities in other districts of Ukraine.
How the 'referenda' proceededThe separatists reported that turnout at the ‘referenda’ was 75% in the Donetsk region and 81% in the Lugansk region. Both the turnout and the results should be regarded as preposterous, and the plebiscite itself as incompatible with Ukrainian law, which does not provide for local referendums. The separatists possessed only rudimentary lists of voters (the central authorities denied them access to the register of voters); there were widespread instances of casting votes for other persons, and there were no observers. There was no security for the ballots; they had already been handed out on the streets several days earlier. The separatists failed to create a sufficient number of voting points, and in many places in both districts the 'referendum' did not take place at all.
The separatists reported that 1540 polling stations were opened in the Donetsk region (during the parliamentary elections in 2012, 2444 polling stations operated), but this number seems to have been strongly and repeatedly overstated. They did not provide any numbers for people participating in the vote, but merely gave a significant overestimate of the turnout. Given that 3.35 million people are entitled to vote in the Donetsk region, and 1.8 million in the Lugansk region (based on the Central Electoral Commission of Ukraine’s figures), with such a small number of polling stations it would have been physically impossible for 75% and 81% of those eligible to vote. The polling stations were mainly set up in the cities, but even there their numbers was insufficient. In extreme cases, such as in Mariupol, only four polling stations were opened (there were 218 in the elections in 2012), with 345,000 people eligible to vote. The authorities in Kyiv called the referendum “an illegal act of effrontery”, organised and funded by the Kremlin. Acting president Oleksandr Turchynov surprisingly stated that turnout in the Donetsk region had been below 32%, and in the Lugansk region about 24%; in so doing, he indirectly acknowledged the legitimacy of the process itself. These estimates, however, have not been supported by any research exit polls on the ground, and thus cannot be relied on.
The increase in anti-government sentiment in the DonbasOne success for the separatists is that the local population now mainly blame the situation in the eastern regions on the authorities in Kyiv. In the public perception, the military actions, problems with supplies and transport in the region, the anarchic state of life, the deterioration of security on the streets and roads, and the acts of terror that are the result of separatist activities, are the responsibility of the government in Kyiv and the anti-terrorist operation it is conducting. By exploiting the errors Kyiv has committed in the region, Russian mass propaganda is reinforcing the sense among the local population that the central government is the enemy, and that the separatists are an alternative which offers an opportunity for positive change. The effectiveness of the separatists is also bolstered by the lack of a well thought-out campaign by Kyiv which would clarify the objectives of the military operation.
Dissatisfaction with the policy of the central government has also been demonstrated by the local power and business elites. The Party of Regions and the Communist Party of Ukraine, which still retain influence in the Donbas, have demanded the immediate termination of the anti-terrorist operation and the start of negotiations with the separatists. The oligarch Rinat Akhmetov made a similar statement through his press service; on 11 May he called for the cessation of hostilities and began forming patrols in Mariupol made up of employees belonging to his Metinvest holding. In turn Serhiy Taruta, the governor of the Donetsk region, called on the authorities in Kyiv to call off the military operations and hold a nationwide referendum on devolution on 15 June, the same day as a potential second round of the presidential elections could be held. . .
https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2014-05-14/farce-referendum-donbas