Republicans Are Favored to Win the Senate

[mystery-ak]

Republicans Are Favored to Win the Senate
ANALYSIS
By Sean Trende - RCP Staff

Recently there has been a spate of stories about Republicans’ difficulties in taking over the Senate. These analyses typically focus on candidates’ poor polling numbers in key states and the weakness of the Republican recruiting class.

These aren’t absurd analyses; I’ve referred to the battle between the overall electoral environment and Republican candidate quality as “the irresistible force versus the immovable object” in previous columns. Had the Republican Party fielded its A-team in states like Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona, we probably would not be talking about Democrats even having a shot at retaining the Senate.

At the same time, we shouldn’t get carried away. While Republican candidate quality is an issue, good analysis should not lose sight of the fact that environment matters as well, and probably more so these days. President Joe Biden’s job approval is 37.7% in the RealClearPolitics Average, a mark reached only briefly by former President Donald Trump in August and December of 2017, and never touched by former President Barack Obama. While the map isn’t as favorable for Republicans as it will be in 2024, it isn’t unfavorable, either.

To see this best, let’s consider the races on an individual basis. Republicans need to net just one seat to win control of the Senate. Right now, Democrats have two realistic targets: Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. (Others, like Missouri and North Carolina, probably only come into play if the environment shifts in a dramatically favorable way for Democrats.) In Wisconsin, incumbent Senator Ron Johnson is a poor fit for the state ideologically. In Pennsylvania, Republicans nominated Dr. Mehmet Oz, who is most famous for dispensing sometimes-questionable medical advice on the Oprah Winfrey show, and who resides in a multi-million dollar home in New Jersey. This is compounded by the fact that Democrats have nominated Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who doesn’t code as an East Coast progressive and who may be able to peel off working class voters in the state. Also, if we are being honest, Oz’s dual Turkish citizenship is unlikely to help him here.

more
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2022/07/13/gop_likely_to_take_senate_but_its_far_from_a_lock_147883.html

[Idiot]

Republicans Are Favored to Win the Senate
ANALYSIS
By Sean Trende - RCP Staff

Recently there has been a spate of stories about Republicans’ difficulties in taking over the Senate. These analyses typically focus on candidates’ poor polling numbers in key states and the weakness of the Republican recruiting class.

These aren’t absurd analyses; I’ve referred to the battle between the overall electoral environment and Republican candidate quality as “the irresistible force versus the immovable object” in previous columns. Had the Republican Party fielded its A-team in states like Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona, we probably would not be talking about Democrats even having a shot at retaining the Senate.

At the same time, we shouldn’t get carried away. While Republican candidate quality is an issue, good analysis should not lose sight of the fact that environment matters as well, and probably more so these days. President Joe Biden’s job approval is 37.7% in the RealClearPolitics Average, a mark reached only briefly by former President Donald Trump in August and December of 2017, and never touched by former President Barack Obama. While the map isn’t as favorable for Republicans as it will be in 2024, it isn’t unfavorable, either.

To see this best, let’s consider the races on an individual basis. Republicans need to net just one seat to win control of the Senate. Right now, Democrats have two realistic targets: Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. (Others, like Missouri and North Carolina, probably only come into play if the environment shifts in a dramatically favorable way for Democrats.) In Wisconsin, incumbent Senator Ron Johnson is a poor fit for the state ideologically. In Pennsylvania, Republicans nominated Dr. Mehmet Oz, who is most famous for dispensing sometimes-questionable medical advice on the Oprah Winfrey show, and who resides in a multi-million dollar home in New Jersey. This is compounded by the fact that Democrats have nominated Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who doesn’t code as an East Coast progressive and who may be able to peel off working class voters in the state. Also, if we are being honest, Oz’s dual Turkish citizenship is unlikely to help him here.

more
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2022/07/13/gop_likely_to_take_senate_but_its_far_from_a_lock_147883.html

Very doubtful.  The repubs can pretty well screw up most anything.

[Bigun]

Even if Republicans do win the senate, we will see little improvement if there is no change in leadership.

[catfish1957]

I ran the numbers a few weeks back, and I am not so sure the GOP takes the senate.  Oz, Walker, and Johnson for that matter are behind.  Add the dim cheat factor, and upcoming electoral variant of COVID????.... I am even less optimistic

[catfish1957]

Even if Republicans do win the senate, we will see little improvement if there is no change in leadership.

The Seante GOP will be servant to the NWO globalist until Turtle is deposed.

[LMAO]

The GOP will take the House of Representatives

They may or may not take the Senate

This election may be similar to 2010 versus 2014

[Idiot]

The GOP will take the House of Representatives

They may or may not take the Senate

This election may be similar to 2010 versus 2014

If the rebubs don't win the house and the senate in a landslide, then it tells you just how far our country has fallen.

[Right_in_Virginia]

We don't need both to mess up Biden's plans, we need one.  Take the House.

[Fishrrman]

potato head rolled away with:
"If the rebubs don't win the house and the senate in a landslide, then it tells you just how far our country has fallen."

I sense that there are gonna be A LOT of disappointed folks on the morning of Wednesday, November 9.

Will it then be time yet for that "New Continental Congress" ??

[cato potatoe]

At this point, they're more likely to lose a seat or two.  Dr. Oz is an underdog to hold Toomey's seat.  GOP seats in Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Ohio could go either way.  There are also competitive races in GOP-held Florida and Missouri.  Republicans have a shot at Democrat seats in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and New Hampshire ... but none of them especially promising.