Obama and Clinton midterm polling ominous for Biden's November election prospects

[mystery-ak]

Obama and Clinton midterm polling ominous for Biden's November election prospects
by Naomi Lim, White House Reporter |
 | July 07, 2022 06:30 AM

President Joe Biden's poll numbers augur poorly for November's midterm elections, particularly when compared to former Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton.

But pollsters speculate Biden's political fortunes could improve post-midterm cycle, at least according to trends set by his predecessors.

Past presidents have seen some rise in their approval ratings before their reelections, though not before their first midterm cycle, according to Marquette Law School's poll director, Charles Franklin. Obama, as well as former Presidents George W. Bush and Richard Nixon, are recent examples.

By contrast, Clinton and former President Ronald Reagan experienced an approval bounce almost immediately after their first midterm cycle, Franklin said. Donald Trump, George H.W. Bush, Jimmy Carter, and Gerald Ford did not.

"So if a recovery is possible, it is likely more than a year away," Franklin told the Washington Examiner.

Suffolk University Political Research Center Director David Paleologos predicted the historic pendulum swing against in-power Democrats will be "more pronounced" before then "as the economy continues to falter over the next three months."

Biden's current average approval is 39%, while his average disapproval is 56%, according to FiveThirtyEight. At the corresponding point in Obama's and Clinton's terms, Obama's approval was 47% and Clinton's was 46%. Democrats went on to lose 63 House seats in 2010 and 54 in 1994. Interestingly, Trump's approval was 42% this time in 2018, and Democrats gained 41 seats for that next Congress.

A Cook Political Report House analysis considers there to be 25 Democratic and eight Republican toss-up campaigns, as well as 11 lean-Republican races, seven of which have Democratic incumbents. It finds another 12 likely Republican contests, three seats of which are occupied by Democrats. It also assesses there to be three Senate toss-up bids, including those of Sens. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Raphael Warnock (D-GA), and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV).

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https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/white-house/obama-clinton-biden-polling-midterms

[DefiantMassRINO]

Biden's numbers are terrible because his policies are awful.

[Cyber Liberty]

Presidents often misread their own elections as powerful mandates from the voters and they overreach, which seems to be why their party usually lose seats in the Midterms. 

Biden, who appears to have gotten elected by voter fraud, is overreaching like nobody has ever before, so I expect a major red wave.  The House is almost certain to become Republican because there are not many seats separating count of the two parties but the Senate is different because the Republicans are defending way more seats than the Rats. 

[Free Vulcan]

Suffolk University's Rhode Island poll is echoed nationally by a Monmouth University survey fielded last week. More than 4 in 10 people told pollsters they are struggling to maintain their financial standing, with a third citing inflation as their No. 1 concern, followed by 15% who listed gas prices. A majority additionally complained the federal government had hurt their families during the past six months regarding their policy priority and that Biden's agenda has not buoyed the middle class.

This will motivate Reps and Indies to turnout, but what is almost always ignored is that this will demotivate the Dem base, especially those that aren't woke neo-Marxists.

Keep in mind that the GOP turns out better in the midterms anyway, and no doubt you have a very dissatisfied soft Dem contingent, and a hard Dem with little to get interested in.

Which means the GOP is in the hunt to pick off more marginal seats.

[Kamaji]

This will motivate Reps and Indies to turnout, but what is almost always ignored is that this will demotivate the Dem base, especially those that aren't woke neo-Marxists.

Keep in mind that the GOP turns out better in the midterms anyway, and no doubt you have a very dissatisfied soft Dem contingent, and a hard Dem with little to get interested in.

Which means the GOP is in the hunt to pick off more marginal seats.

From your fingers to God's ear, so to speak.