Here’s what a Russian invasion of Ukraine would mean for markets Fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine are on the rise, prompting analysts and traders to weigh the potential financial-market shock waves.
“If Russia invades Ukraine, the trade is buy TY,” wrote Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets, in a Friday note, referring to 10-year Treasury-note futures TY00, -0.50%.
Treasurys are a traditional haven during periods of geopolitical and economic stress. A rally in Treasurys would pull down yields, which move in the opposite direction of prices. A Treasury selloff has pushed up yields, with the 10-year Treasury rate TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.792% finishing near 1.77% Friday after hitting a nearly two-year high earlier in the week.
The Swiss franc, another popular haven, could also rally, with the euro/Swiss franc EURCHF, -0.02% currency pair likely to fall to CHF1.03 “on a frozen rope if Russia moves,” Donnelly said. The euro bought 1.043 francs Friday..........
Russia, which has already placed more than 100,000 troops on Ukraine border, this week began moving tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, rocket launchers and other military equipment westward from bases in its Far East, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing U.S. officials and social-media reports.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen using the threat of an invasion as leverage, as Moscow demands that NATO never offer membership to Ukraine or Georgia. Russia has pressed a range of other demands, including that U.S. and allied troops leave NATO’s East and Central European members. Talks this week between Russia, the U.S. and NATO failed to produce a breakthrough. The U.S. and its allies have pledged to respond to any Russian invasion of Ukraine with harsh economic sanctions..............
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-a-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-would-mean-for-markets-11642185717?mod=home-page
