The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2022
By Simone Pathe, CNN
Updated 6:02 AM ET, Thu May 27, 2021
(CNN)The midterm elections are still 18 months away, but the fight for control of the Senate is already shaping what gets done in the nation's capital this year.
In an evenly divided Senate, where Vice President Kamala Harris gives Democrats the tie-breaking vote, every vote matters. That's proven to be a crucial consideration for President Joe Biden as he tried to pass his Covid-19 relief plan and now his infrastructure and jobs proposals.
Looking ahead to next year, that means every Senate race matters. Republicans only need to flip one seat to take back the majority, while Democrats are eager to cushion their majority by picking off a few more seats currently held by GOP senators.
Democrats' best opportunity to do that is in Pennsylvania, which CNN ranks the seat most likely to flip partisan control for the third month in a row. The top 10 Senate seats most likely to flip are based on CNN's reporting and fundraising data, as well as historical data about how states and candidates have performed. As the cycle heats up, polling and advertising spending data will also become factors. Our ranking first published in March and was updated in April.
Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey, a Republican, is not running for reelection, which means it's up to the GOP to hold this seat without him. Biden carried the state by about 1 point last fall, making it a natural place for Democrats to try to flip a seat. Their next best chance to is in Wisconsin, another state Biden won that's currently held by a Republican, Sen. Ron Johnson, who may or may not be running for reelection.
Republicans' best opportunities to flip seats are in Georgia and Arizona -- two traditionally red states that Biden carried last year where recently elected Democratic senators, Raphael Warnock and Mark Kelly, are now running for full six-year terms.
But the universe of competitive seats remains relatively small. Of the 34 seats up for election next fall, only eight are considered "battlegrounds" by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales.
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https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/27/politics/2022-senate-race-rankings-may/index.html