Projections model shows vaccine won’t reduce deaths due to COVID-19

[libertybele]

Projections model shows vaccine won’t reduce deaths due to COVID-19

In the next two weeks, two coronavirus vaccines will be up for emergency use authorization review, but a model from experts at the University of Washington shows a vaccine won’t reduce the number of coronavirus deaths by that much.

We looked at what doctors and health experts believe will be more impactful against COVID-19 than a vaccine Friday.

“I really worry about the ICU capacity and hospital capacity in our country at the moment,” said Dr. Michael Mina, an epidemiologist at Harvard.

As the pandemic drags on, Mina worries we’re becoming numb to the numbers.

“Yesterday, we saw almost 3,000 deaths,” Mina said. “I worry that the population has been conditioned now to just think of them as numbers.”

With the numbers of lives lost, people everywhere are pinning their hopes on the upcoming vaccines.

“We’re talking about the potential availability of vaccines that may protect up to 95% of vaccine recipients being made available in the coming weeks,” said Dr. William Moss, the Executive Director of International Vaccine Access Center at Johns Hopkins.

The latest COVID-19 death projections show a rapid roll out isn’t fast enough.

“We are showing the total number of deaths from the beginning until April 1 to be 539,000 in the United States,” said Ali Mokdad, Ph.D., a professor of Health Metrics Sciences at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at University of Washington in Seattle.

Mokdad said the vaccines won’t really impact our death rates until mid-2021 because it takes time to build up our collective immunity. Mokdad says his models show masks can save lives now and in the future............

https://www.winknews.com/2020/12/04/projections-model-shows-vaccine-wont-reduce-deaths-due-to-covid-19/

[txradioguy]

Vaccine effectiveness - 92-95%

Chance of surviving China Flu - 98.8%

[jmyrlefuller]

Mokdad says his models show masks can save lives now and in the future

Garbage in, garbage out.

A model doesn't prove anything. Hard data does. And right now, the hard data is showing that masking doesn't have enough of an impact to slow the spread. Literally nothing does, except weather and herd immunity—the latter of which is what we are seeing in the Dakotas, one of the few parts of the country where cases are going down right now. Three months of uptick, and then it goes down naturally.

[PeteS in CA]

Nine paragraphs into the article is this:

“We are showing the total number of deaths from the beginning until April 1 to be 539,000 in the United States 1,” said Ali Mokdad, Ph.D., a professor of Health Metrics Sciences at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at University of Washington in Seattle.

Mokdad said the vaccines won’t really impact our death rates until mid-2021 2 because it takes time to build up our collective immunity. Mokdad says his models 3 show masks can save lives 4 now and in the future

1 It took ~11 months for the US to reach 288K deaths, but in 4 months that total will almost double? Another absurd prediction, slightly less absurd than those of 7 or 8 months ago.

2 First of all, this contradicts the article headline. Second, it's obviously false, because between Pfizer and Moderna 50M-60M doses will be distributed by the end of December, with millions more distributed every month. By the end of January up to 30M Americans will have received their second doses of the vaccines. An additional 10% of the US population will have become immune in a two month (or less, since the first shot begins the immune process) period. Reality is that "collective immunity" will begin increasing significantly in December and January.

3 Ah, yes, computer models ... the sources of the ludicrous predictions of 7 or 8 months ago, and now the source of Mokdad's absurd prediction that deaths will almost double in just 4 months. Like @jmyrlefuller said, GIGO.

4 So Mokdad is basically a Mask Nazi with a title. One need not be a Mask Denier to know that the ubiquitous cloth masks, bandannas, and neck gaiters have very little effect, and surgical masks have moderate effect. Masks and vaccinations are not either-or. Mokdad's absurd prediction and denial of vaccines' immediate significance in increasing "collective immunity" demonstrate that he is a non-credible Masktivist tyrant-wannabe.

[libertybele]

Mokad said it himself - - "it takes time to build up our collective immunity".  I interpret that as we have to build up herd immunity and going through lockdowns is asinine and ridiculous.

As for masks; there are studies that indicate that they do more harm than good depending on what time of mask you wear and for those idiots who wear there masks without covering their noses or mouths shouldn't even bother. 

Mandating masks is a money maker. I don't know what anyone else is paying, but for a box of 50 thin, cheaply designed masks made in China costs around $30 around here.  I found the same type supposed made in the U.S., but no cheaper.

Cloth masks are also debatable --- I have a couple and have sewn a small dot on one side so that I know what side has been exposed to the outside.  They may be somewhat cheaper, but they are difficult to breathe through and there's no proof that they are any more effective or not harmful.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/certain-type-n95-mask-harm-covid19-spread

https://www.tahlequahdailypress.com/news/doctor-tells-city-councilors-others-masks-may-do-more-harm-than-good/article_e2d63e39-2347-57e1-b1af-8d4cffdaaab3.html

[The_Reader_David]

Mokdad's model is obviously flawed.  As planned, the vaccination program will initially be directed primarily toward the elderly, who have the highest death rate.  Removing the elderly from the population of potential hosts for the virus will cause the mortality rate to fall to much lower rate found among the younger part of the population.  Just getting all the over 80's would drop the death rate considerably.  By the time we get everyone over 65, plus people with known risk factors, which should happen sometime in the spring, the mortality rate would drop to something comparable to a bad seasonal flu (because that's what it is now if you remove senior citizens, people with asthma, people with diabetes and people with type A blood from the population being considered).