Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion 2

[Formerly Once-Ler]

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@corbe Lucille looks thirsty.  I hope she ain't from Wuhan China.

[Cyber Liberty]

I get that...

The Absaroka range in WY is kinda always spelled the same but said different if you are talking of the range or the county... and said different altogether depending on where you are from. Mostly emphasis I reckon, but different. To complicate the matter, the Wind River country refers roughly to the Absarokas down there... But there's a Wind River country up here too - just east of me over the hump.

It don't matter much up in here, but you get among folks south of here and you have to stop and define things. :)

Oh, Mackinac and Mackinaw are pronounced the same.  "MACK-in-aw."

[roamer_1]

Oh, Mackinac and Mackinaw are pronounced the same.  "MACK-in-aw."

Right. I know. Just looks weird as Mackinac, as I said... Mackinaw is common up in here. 

[Smokin Joe]

They'll play hell with it in the West. At least up in here, and in the high desert. Probably the prairie too.Too many folks still know how, and even them in town won't comply. And the governors won't go along - Not if he values his stones.

Don't leave out that those who have hunted are at least good to 3-500 yards. Maybe not as good as some of the snipers out there, but there's roughly 10 million who can handle a rifle reasonably well at a distance, and who have done it for food. Oh, and they know their rifles and optics, too.

[roamer_1]

Don't leave out that those who have hunted are at least good to 3-500 yards. Maybe not as good as some of the snipers out there, but there's roughly 10 million who can handle a rifle reasonably well at a distance, and who have done it for food. Oh, and they know their rifles and optics, too.

Yeah... And know the ground they're standing on. Took em 20 year on the bald ass mountains of Afghanistan (with our sons)... How long till the Rockies fall? Shoot, even your badlands. Or the Missouri breaks. A feller can get dug in like a tick.

[Smokin Joe]

Yeah... And know the ground they're standing on. Took em 20 year on the bald ass mountains of Afghanistan (with our sons)... How long till the Rockies fall? Shoot, even your badlands. Or the Missouri breaks. A feller can get dug in like a tick.

Yep.

[Hoodat]

05-05-2020 | 0:00 GMT

REGION	Recov:Death	Cases:Recov
Global (excluding China & US)	5.228 ↑	2.527 ↓
United States	2.689 ↑	6.450 ↓
China	16.785 ↑	1.066 -

US 14-day Recovery Deficit - 534,811
Recovery Rate after 14 days - 23.7 %  ↑
Recovery Rate after 21 days - 32.5 %  ↑

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Cyber Liberty]

Thanks, @Hoodat!

[catfish1957]

Seems to me us old codgers have earned the right to do whatever we damned well please.

Like my wife says...   I've practiced social distancing for 40 years now.  Always called it "personal space". 

[sneakypete]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-updates.html#link-7b42d0f5
The Trump administration projects about 3,000 daily deaths by early June.

more at link

@Once-Ler

We are all adults here,so we should all know by this time that sometimes despite doing everything you can do as well as you can do it,it just won't be good enough.

That's just life in the real world.

[sneakypete]

I think the frustration that many are feeling about restrictions should be understood for what it is.   Frustration with the disease itself.

@musiclady

Exactly! The frustration that comes from feeling helpless. We,or at least most of us,are raised to believe in the triumph of good over evil,and that we,as Americans,can defeat any wrong,including contagious diseases.

That's just not 100 percent true and a sudden dose of reality is hard for a lot of people to deal with.

The results of being wrong in his case are hard for everyone to deal with.

BUT.....,given a little time,those who survive will get over it,and move on with their normal lives.

It's called "Life in the real world",and this is coming from someone that is in the high-risk category.

[sneakypete]

I'm convinced.  No more seat-belts or exercise for me /sarc

Seriously @jmyrlefuller I think that is a flawed argument.  The President's 15 day, and 30 day pause were so our healthcare system could catch up with the virus.  It bought time to build beds, and buy PPE and ventilators.  It did work.  NY cases have dropped significantly.  Now infections and deaths are rising in other area, and the supplies we have replenished can be utilized in those areas to reduce deaths.

I fear the states opening back up before it was safe, like GA, will once again have to shut down to protect their population before they are forced to.  The well run states don't want to be burdened by the irresponsible states, and eventually the states themselves are going to have to ban travel to states with renewed epidemics.

We'll likely have a better idea how well reducing restrictions worked in a few weeks.

@Once-Ler

For once,I am in complete agreement with everything you wrote.

You  might want to mark this date on your calendar,because it's not likely to happen again.

[Neverdul]

Update on my niece and her family.

Saturday her husband was starting to feel better. He’s quarantined in their master bedroom with the en suite bathroom and felt well enough to post on FB. Then Saturday night his fever spiked high again along with a new symptom – nausea. He said the chills (teeth chattering/body shaking chills), the severe body aches and exhaustion are the worst to deal with so far. That and he gets dizzy when walking to the bathroom.

Yesterday she had to take her daughter Lilly to the doctors as she now had a high fever, sore throat, etc. She tested negative for strep and they are waiting on the results of the COVD-19 test.  I’m not sure how or where she is quarantining Lilly as she shares a bedroom with one sister and a central bathroom with all four.

[jmyrlefuller]

A couple of scientific developments:
Los Alamos has determined that the strain of the virus that hit Wuhan was not the same as the one that ravaged the United States and Europe. The latter, more lethal, appears to have split off in Europe before it arrived here—which would explain why the virus was slower and perceived as less of a threat before March because the earlier, less virulent strain arrived first. (Don't regard the alarmist headline calling it a "new" strain)
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-05/mutant-coronavirus-has-emerged-more-contagious-than-original

But more recent mutations seem to be destroying the virus, mirroring a similar destruction of the SARS virus, according to Arizona State University.
https://nypost.com/2020/05/05/new-mutation-indicates-that-coronavirus-might-be-weakening-study/

[sneakypete]

A couple of scientific developments:
Los Alamos has determined that the strain of the virus that hit Wuhan was not the same as the one that ravaged the United States and Europe. The latter, more lethal, appears to have split off in Europe before it arrived here—which would explain why the virus was slower and perceived as less of a threat before March because the earlier, less virulent strain arrived first. (Don't regard the alarmist headline calling it a "new" strain)
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-05/mutant-coronavirus-has-emerged-more-contagious-than-original

But more recent mutations seem to be destroying the virus, mirroring a similar destruction of the SARS virus, according to Arizona State University.
https://nypost.com/2020/05/05/new-mutation-indicates-that-coronavirus-might-be-weakening-study/

@jmyrlefuller

Thank you for posting that. I heard just a tiny slice of that on the news the other day,but not enough to "put it together".

[corbe]

[Formerly Once-Ler]

@Once-Ler

For once,I am in complete agreement with everything you wrote.

You  might want to mark this date on your calendar,because it's not likely to happen again.

@sneakypete done 

[musiclady]

@musiclady

Exactly! The frustration that comes from feeling helpless. We,or at least most of us,are raised to believe in the triumph of good over evil,and that we,as Americans,can defeat any wrong,including contagious diseases.

That's just not 100 percent true and a sudden dose of reality is hard for a lot of people to deal with.

The results of being wrong in his case are hard for everyone to deal with.

BUT.....,given a little time,those who survive will get over it,and move on with their normal lives.

It's called "Life in the real world",and this is coming from someone that is in the high-risk category.

Really good points............. especially the one about not being in control, and feeling helpless.

I think a lot of people tend to want to lash out and blame someone without really centering in on what's to blame.

This is new territory for all of us, and it's just plain hard.

You take care of yourself, @sneakypete .   

I hope people around you wear masks, not for themselves, but for you.  That's what it's all about.

[Fishrrman]

Some numbers from CT:

Date   Infect     Daily   Deaths    Daily
            Total       Inc      Total       Inc
4/28     26,312   315     2,089     77
4/29     26,767   455     2,168     79
4/30     27,700   933     2,257     89
5/1      28,764    1,064  2,339     82
5/2      29,287    523      2,436     97
5/3      29,973    686      2,495     59
5/4      30,173    200      2,556     61
5/5      30,621    448      2,633     77

[musiclady]

Reporting on our trip to the dentist yesterday (we both had appointments, my husband for a crown replacement and me for cleaning and an Xray).

They had the questionnaire on the door going in, asking us not to come in if we had been exposed.  They had hand sanitizer in the (downstairs) lobby.

We went upstairs to the reception area where they took our temps.  The chairs were spaced for social distancing.

The cleaning was more like the old-fashioned kind because they weren't using the newer spray cleaning because of increased aerosols.  The hygienist had a face shield and goggles (temporary until the full ones arrive).  The dentist had neither.

We were told that if we had any symptoms show up in the next two weeks, to let them know.

Everybody was very glad to see other people.  The dentists were thrilled to get back to work, and overall it was a very positive, almost normal experience.

I would say they complied with the spirit of the guidelines, because in the end, we all want to stay safe.

@mountaineer

[libertybele]

Update on my niece and her family.

Saturday her husband was starting to feel better. He’s quarantined in their master bedroom with the en suite bathroom and felt well enough to post on FB. Then Saturday night his fever spiked high again along with a new symptom – nausea. He said the chills (teeth chattering/body shaking chills), the severe body aches and exhaustion are the worst to deal with so far. That and he gets dizzy when walking to the bathroom.

Yesterday she had to take her daughter Lilly to the doctors as she now had a high fever, sore throat, etc. She tested negative for strep and they are waiting on the results of the COVD-19 test.  I’m not sure how or where she is quarantining Lilly as she shares a bedroom with one sister and a central bathroom with all four.

Wow.  Prayers up for your family @Neverdul       

[sneakypete]

I think a lot of people tend to want to lash out and blame someone without really centering in on what's to blame.

Well,there are a couple of billion  people living in China,but not ALL of them are to blame. Besides,there are more than a few 'murikans that gleefully helped this expand so they could exploit it in the hopes that America would die off and be replaced as a cog in the machine to be known as "World Wide Government,Inc".

Which is really just a fancy and complicated way to say "Global Fascism".

You take care of yourself, @sneakypete .   

I hope people around you wear masks, not for themselves, but for you.  That's what it's all about.

You too,and thanks.

[musiclady]

Some numbers from CT:

Date   Infect     Daily   Deaths    Daily
            Total       Inc      Total       Inc
4/28     26,312   315     2,089     77
4/29     26,767   455     2,168     79
4/30     27,700   933     2,257     89
5/1      28,764    1,064  2,339     82
5/2      29,287    523      2,436     97
5/3      29,973    686      2,495     59
5/4      30,173    200      2,556     61
5/5      30,621    448      2,633     77

Wow.   Those daily increases are consistently high. 

[Hoodat]

05-06-2020 | 0:00 GMT

REGION	Recov:Death	Cases:Recov
Global (excluding China & US)	5.313 ↑	2.498 ↓
United States	2.776 ↑	6.169 ↓
China	16.804 ↑	1.065 ↓

US 14-day Recovery Deficit - 545,847
Recovery Rate after 14 days - 24.5 %  ↑
Recovery Rate after 21 days - 33.1 %  ↑

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[libertybele]

Wow.   Those daily increases are consistently high.

Same with FL -- I've been keeping track for the past 6 weeks (FL thread) and in one month the numbers of cases have tripled and deaths are 5 times higher. 

[musiclady]

Same with FL -- I've been keeping track for the past 6 weeks (FL thread) and in one month the numbers of cases have tripled and deaths are 5 times higher.

Is that because of increased testing or reporting of deaths?  Some times the numbers jump because of more information....

Maybe??

[libertybele]

Is that because of increased testing or reporting of deaths?  Some times the numbers jump because of more information....

Maybe??

Difficult to tell.  Testing has increased which is a good thing, but the FL DOH has changed the way that they calculate information 3 times.  We actually hit a new one day record for deaths today.

[sneakypete]

Is that because of increased testing or reporting of deaths?  Some times the numbers jump because of more information....

Maybe??

@musiclady

Probably due more to a "mature incubation period coming to an end" than anything else.

[Neverdul]

Wow.  Prayers up for your family @Neverdul       

Thanks @libertybele

I hate that I can’t be there to help out or even just visit to lend moral support.

On the brighter side my niece told me that Lil is quarantined in the bedroom she normally shares with her sister Helen (not sure where Helen is sleeping now, probably in the basement rec room). Anyway, the two normally fight as sisters will, but she said that Lilly and Helen were on their cell phones talking to each other for hours yesterday because they miss each other. 

That and a neighbor dropped off ice cream for them.

[Smokin Joe]

A couple of scientific developments:
Los Alamos has determined that the strain of the virus that hit Wuhan was not the same as the one that ravaged the United States and Europe. The latter, more lethal, appears to have split off in Europe before it arrived here—which would explain why the virus was slower and perceived as less of a threat before March because the earlier, less virulent strain arrived first. (Don't regard the alarmist headline calling it a "new" strain)
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-05/mutant-coronavirus-has-emerged-more-contagious-than-original

But more recent mutations seem to be destroying the virus, mirroring a similar destruction of the SARS virus, according to Arizona State University.
https://nypost.com/2020/05/05/new-mutation-indicates-that-coronavirus-might-be-weakening-study/

Limited access for most of us, but https://www.gisaid.org/

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

https://www.gisaid.org/epiflu-applications/next-hcov-19-app/

[Cyber Liberty]

Limited access for most of us, but https://www.gisaid.org/

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

https://www.gisaid.org/epiflu-applications/next-hcov-19-app/

The dashboard page is pretty cool.

[jmyrlefuller]

I noticed a story on The Federalist (which I've been avoiding posting because their track record has perhaps been too optimistic) from the end of March describing the spike in suicides since the lockdowns began. I decided to look and see if there was any update on that.

I did find a few stories:
https://www.10tv.com/article/ohio-state-alum-shares-story-childs-suicide-tells-parents-covid-19-isolation-real-2020-may
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/05/04/mental-health-coronavirus/

"In March and April, deputies responded to 19% more calls about suicidal residents than during the same period last year, most of them since the stay-at-home order went into effect."
https://wwmt.com/news/state-of-mind/state-of-mind-study-shows-michigan-suicides-could-increase-by-32-due-to-covid-19

[Fishrrman]

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-caseloads-states-b24899a3-286e-4ea9-bd71-0e88ed645e68.html

Where the virus is spreading fastest
Nicholas Johnston

In addition to keeping an eye on the tragic, and climbing, numbers of total coronavirus cases and deaths across the U.S., it's important to watch how those trends are playing out over time at the state level.

Why it matters: Rising, or falling, numbers of cases is one of the key metrics for determining where mitigation efforts are working and when the economy can begin to reopen.

Click below for interactive image:
https://graphics.axios.com/2020-05-04-us-recent-cases/index.html#amp=1

[Hoodat]

Where the virus is spreading fastest

In States with Democrat governors.

[libertybele]

Thanks @libertybele

I hate that I can’t be there to help out or even just visit to lend moral support.

On the brighter side my niece told me that Lil is quarantined in the bedroom she normally shares with her sister Helen (not sure where Helen is sleeping now, probably in the basement rec room). Anyway, the two normally fight as sisters will, but she said that Lilly and Helen were on their cell phones talking to each other for hours yesterday because they miss each other. 

That and a neighbor dropped off ice cream for them.

That is heartwarming.   Ice cream always helps.

[Hoodat]

05-07-2020 | 0:00 GMT

REGION	Recov:Death	Cases:Recov
Global (excluding China & US)	5.439 ↑	2.453 ↓
United States	2.847 ↑	5.931 ↓
China	16.817 ↑	1.063 ↓

US 14-day Recovery Deficit - 560,937
Recovery Rate after 14 days - 25.1 %  ↑
Recovery Rate after 21 days - 33.2 %  ↑

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


US Cases:Recoveries ratio falls below six for the first time.

[Smokin Joe]

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-caseloads-states-b24899a3-286e-4ea9-bd71-0e88ed645e68.html

Where the virus is spreading fastest
Nicholas Johnston

In addition to keeping an eye on the tragic, and climbing, numbers of total coronavirus cases and deaths across the U.S., it's important to watch how those trends are playing out over time at the state level.

Why it matters: Rising, or falling, numbers of cases is one of the key metrics for determining where mitigation efforts are working and when the economy can begin to reopen.

Click below for interactive image:
https://graphics.axios.com/2020-05-04-us-recent-cases/index.html#amp=1

When the samples from the recent sampling campaign are tested (shortage of materials at present), there may be a spike in NDs totals. Keep in mind that is as much an artifact of the reporting and testing process as representative of any disease spread.

[Smokin Joe]

Thanks @libertybele

I hate that I can’t be there to help out or even just visit to lend moral support.

On the brighter side my niece told me that Lil is quarantined in the bedroom she normally shares with her sister Helen (not sure where Helen is sleeping now, probably in the basement rec room). Anyway, the two normally fight as sisters will, but she said that Lilly and Helen were on their cell phones talking to each other for hours yesterday because they miss each other. 

That and a neighbor dropped off ice cream for them.

A new twist on "How can I miss you if you don't go away?"

At least they gain appreciation for each other while they are still young. For many siblings, that doesn't come until one moves or goes off to college.

[mountaineer]

Report from UPMC, one of largest healthcare providers in Pennsylvania:

... We indeed saw a steady stream of patients but never “surged.” At peak in mid-April, COVID-19 patients occupied 2% of our 5,500 hospital beds and 48 of our 750 ventilators. Subsequently, admissions have been decreasing with very few patients now coming from the community, almost all now being from nursing homes. Of note, in the 36 UPMC-owned senior facilities we have had zero positive cases.

Our outcomes are similar to the state of Pennsylvania, where the median age of death from COVID-19 is 84 years old. The few younger patients who died all had significant preexisting conditions. Very few children were infected and none died. Minorities in our communities fared equally as well as others, but we know that this is not the case nationally. In sum, this is a disease of the elderly, sick and poor.   ...

COVID-19 is a disease that ravages those with preexisting conditions – whether it be immunosenescence of aging or the social determinants of health. We can manage society in the presence of this pathogen if we focus on these preexisting conditions.

What we cannot do, is extended social isolation.  ...

Inside UPMC

UPDATE: Looks like UPMC has closed down the page since I accessed it a couple hours ago. I wonder why.

[Formerly Once-Ler]

Some numbers from CT:

Date   Infect     Daily   Deaths    Daily
            Total       Inc      Total       Inc
4/28     26,312   315     2,089     77
4/29     26,767   455     2,168     79
4/30     27,700   933     2,257     89
5/1      28,764    1,064  2,339     82
5/2      29,287    523      2,436     97
5/3      29,973    686      2,495     59
5/4      30,173    200      2,556     61
5/5      30,621    448      2,633     77

Thank you for keeping track @Fishrrman .  Stay healthy.

[jmyrlefuller]

Travel From New York City Seeded Wave of U.S. Outbreaks

by Benedict Carey and James Glanz
May 7, 2020

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/travel-from-new-york-city-seeded-wave-of-u-s-outbreaks/ar-BB13J7Yx

New York City’s coronavirus outbreak grew so large by early March that the city became the primary source of new infections in the United States, new research reveals, as thousands of infected people traveled from the city and seeded outbreaks around the country.

Geneticists have analyzed and shared more than 2,000 samples of the virus from infected people. As the virus infects new people and replicates, it picks up mutations along the way. (…) Most samples taken in Texas, Ohio, Louisiana, Idaho, Wisconsin and many other states carry distinct mutations that can be traced back to viruses introduced into New York.

(excerpt)

[Cyber Liberty]

Maybe NYC was from where we should have restricted travel instead of China?

[musiclady]

Maybe NYC was from where we should have restricted travel instead of China?

In addition to, not instead of.......

Too bad this information was only available after the fact (like almost everything else about this virus).

We could have saved the rest of the country from a lot of illness and death if we had just put a wall around NYC and kept the disease inside.

[Smokin Joe]

In addition to, not instead of.......

Too bad this information was only available after the fact (like almost everything else about this virus).

We could have saved the rest of the country from a lot of illness and death if we had just put a wall around NYC and kept the disease inside.

China could have saved the world a lot of illness, death, and economic despair had they not tried to cover up their lab leak. They sowed the wind, and its harvest time.

[libertybele]

Dr. Marty Makary says monkey research indicates coronavirus vaccine by fall is 'very feasible'


Johns Hopkins University professor of health policy Dr. Marty Makary told "The Story" Thursday that a new study claiming the coronavirus pandemic could last for two years discounts the possibility that a vaccine will exist by the start of next year.

"I did read the study from the University of Minnesota, and it does appear to be accurate. There are no problems, but it does make an assumption that we will not have a vaccine," Makary said. "But there's been many advances in vaccine development. And even in the last two weeks, eight days ago, the Oxford group reported that in monkeys, the monkeys developed a immunogenicity or an antibody. And compared to monkeys who did not have the vaccine, the monkeys with the vaccine did not get the infection."
"That's a major breakthrough," Makary elaborated. "We've never had a vaccine for an RNA virus. So it's very feasible that their plan to get a vaccine by this fall may actually help us with partial herd immunity, which helps us."

https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-makary-autumn-coronavirus-vaccine-very-feasible

[Smokin Joe]

Dr. Marty Makary says monkey research indicates coronavirus vaccine by fall is 'very feasible'


Johns Hopkins University professor of health policy Dr. Marty Makary told "The Story" Thursday that a new study claiming the coronavirus pandemic could last for two years discounts the possibility that a vaccine will exist by the start of next year.

"I did read the study from the University of Minnesota, and it does appear to be accurate. There are no problems, but it does make an assumption that we will not have a vaccine," Makary said. "But there's been many advances in vaccine development. And even in the last two weeks, eight days ago, the Oxford group reported that in monkeys, the monkeys developed a immunogenicity or an antibody. And compared to monkeys who did not have the vaccine, the monkeys with the vaccine did not get the infection."
"That's a major breakthrough," Makary elaborated. "We've never had a vaccine for an RNA virus. So it's very feasible that their plan to get a vaccine by this fall may actually help us with partial herd immunity, which helps us."

https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-makary-autumn-coronavirus-vaccine-very-feasible

Great. All the monkeys will be safe...

[Cyber Liberty]

Great. All the monkeys will be safe...

"The fools!  Don't they know this how we got Godzilla??"  (Me, right after the Japanese Earthquake and they released all that water into the ocean.)

[Hoodat]

05-08-2020 | 0:00 GMT

REGION	Recov:Death	Cases:Recov
Global (excluding China & US)	5.537 ↑	2.427 ↓
United States	2.824 ↓	5.950 ↑
China	16.826 ↑	1.063 ↓

US 14-day Recovery Deficit - 586,026
Recovery Rate after 14 days - 24.7 %  ↓
Recovery Rate after 21 days - 32.2 %  ↓

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


The global (excluding US & China) 14-day recovery rate (59.6%) is 2½ times greater than the US reported rate.

[mountaineer]

Dr. Marty Makary says monkey research indicates coronavirus vaccine by fall is 'very feasible'

Why did I read that as Marty Malarkey? 

[catfish1957]

Why did I read that as Marty Malarkey? 

So did I.  I think it is due to Biden Brain Rot.  More contagious than COVID-19.

When you have it long enough, you turn into a dog faced pony soldier.