John Binder 3 Jan 2020
A rapid “demographic shift†is helping to replace President Donald Trump’s base of white working-class voters with Democrat supporters, the Wall Street Journal reports.
A report by the Wall Street Journal details how a “demographic shift†— with the help of more than 1.2 million legal immigrants being admitted to the United States every year — is changing the American electorate in favor of Democrats.
Trump’s white working-class base of support, the Journal notes, is expected to decline in population by about 2.3 percent in time for the 2020 presidential election. Still, about 23 million white non-college educated men did not vote in the 2016 presidential election — a pool of untapped support that the Trump campaign could draw on.
States of Change demographer Ruy Teixeira told the Journal that “demographic change†is making states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina increasingly difficult for Republicans to win:
Projections by Mr. Teixeira and his colleagues find that the declining presence of working-class whites as eligible voters, if considered in isolation from other factors, would be enough to tip Michigan and Pennsylvania from narrow Trump wins into narrow Democratic wins, while producing the barest of margins in favor of Democrats in Wisconsin. Mr. Trump won each state by less than 1 percentage point, or a combined 77,000 votes.
Projected changes in the eligible electorate, holding other factors the same as in the last election, also narrow Mr. Trump’s winning 2016 margin in three swing states in the Sunbelt analyzed by States of Change: Arizona, Florida and North Carolina. [Emphasis added]
…
If he were to rely on working-class, white voters to make up the ground he loses to demographic change, Mr. Trump would need to raise turnout among that group by 3 percentage points in Pennsylvania and Michigan and one point in Wisconsin, a Wall Street Journal analysis of the States of Change projections finds.
more
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/01/03/wall-street-journal-demographic-shift-replace-trump-base/
