Frist off, @Maj. Bill Martin , I want to tell you that I always enjoy reading your sober, well thought-out posts. We may disagree, but I respect you as one of the leading lights of this board.
What I advocate is not a pipe dream. I am indeed thinking of the LBJ scenario where voices within the party convinced Johnson to not run for re-nomination, but to allow the party to run a less politically toxic candidate who could continue LBJ's policies.
Now I agree with you that Trump won't listen to the likes of Mitt Romney or other members of the NeverTrump chorus. But what if the appeal were to come from Mitch McConnell? McConnell, as leader of the Senate, could convey his view that, if Trump is the nominee, GOP control of the Senate is likely lost, and with that Trump's policies would be reversed and repudiated, and his legacy ruined. I consider Trump to be unconventional, but nevertheless an intelligent and rational man. I think he believes - with justification - that he has accomplished some great things, and been a voice and advocate for the hitherto disparaged and voiceless. His legacy, his policies, are important to him. And he is not a professional politician, but rather a patriotic citizen, and as such is persuadable to reason that the best way to finish what he started is to pass the baton to another.
As I've noted before, his successor must be an ally, not a NeverTrump gadfly. Someone like Nikki Haley or Liz Cheney, who've stood with the President. Someone who can pledge to his supporters that he/she is determined to move forward with his agenda without all the angst and drama. And who can appeal to the swing voters that any successful Republican candidate will need.
Indeed, given the booming economy and the Dems' radicalism, the right GOP nominee can maybe even regain both the House and Senate for the party. That can help protect Trump from the jackals who want to ruin any semblance of a happy return to private life.
@Jazzhead First, I very much appreciate the kind words. And I agree with the desirability of your endgame -- Nikki Haley would curb-stomp anyone in the Democrat field. If Mitch McConnell could actually accomplish that without starting an internal GOP civil war, great. But I just don't see that as remotely likely.
I can see why you picked McConnell -- because he has preserved a generally positive relationship with Trump. But he has preserved that positive relationship by only very rarely crossing/criticizing him. Trump may be rational and intelligent, but he also is wildly egocentric, and has a consistent pattern of turning on anyone he perceives as doubting him or otherwise being disloyal. I don't think that's even arguable.
In other words, the second Mitch McConnell would raise to Trump the suggestion that he can't win because he's said too much stupid shit and offended too many people (and he obviously wouldn't use those words, but that's the gist of what he'd be saying), and should step aside for someone else, Trump would completely turn on him. He'd throw right back in McConnell's face that was the same thing people were saying back in 2016...and he'd be actually
right about about. It's worth nothing again -- Trump's 2016 victory despite what all the pollsters were saying, despite all the claims that the GOP would get crushed in Congressional races because Trump would drag them down, etc., guaranteed that he'd never listen to anyone tell him he can't win in 2020. And if McConnell and others point to the 2018 midterms, Trump would say that happened because 1) the President's party always loses seats in the midterms, and 2) the GOP Congress betrayed voters by failing to pass funding for the wall, failing to repeal ObamaCare, etc.. . He'd (again rightly) point to all the opinion polls showing that he's more popular than is McConnell or Senate Republicans.
Whether those arguments can be countered logically is beside the point. There is enough there for
Trump to believe that the problem is with the GOP Congress and bogus pollsters, not with him, and that he believes he will win again. And honestly...which sounds more like the Donald Trump we've been watching for the past 4 years? The guy who would listen to McConnell, say "you're right, I've screwed up really badly and I guess I can't win", and then graciously bow out? Or the guy who would tell McConnell to go f*** himself, say the problem is congressional Republicans and not him, and that he's going to prove the pollsters wrong again in 2020?
I've never seen that first version of Trump, but I sure as hell have seen the second.
Maybe the argument is "well, there's no harm in trying", but I think the almost certain harm is driving a major wedge between Trump and McConnell. We'd likely get a cringeworthy tweet storm about how horrible McConnell and Congressional Republicans are, and the strengthening of a bunker mindset in Trump himself. That would absolutely thrill the Democrats, and they'd use all of that to emphasize to voters that even Trump's own party hates him. I think it could be a disaster and put us in an even worse position for 2020.
I do think McConnell or others could get away with simply praising Nikki Haley, and observing to Trump how great she is and that she'd likely make a great Presidential candidate "someday" whom the Democrats would fear. I wouldn't be shocked to learn that something like that already has happened, or even that Trump himself made that kind of observation. But trying to convince Trump himself to resign in her favor would likely backfire hugely, and might even lead him to turn on
her.
tl;dr, I just don't see it as a remotely realistic scenario.