Blue Wave Backlash: GOP Flips Fourth State Legislative Seat of 2019

[mystery-ak]

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Blue Wave Backlash: GOP Flips Fourth State Legislative Seat of 2019
Guy Benson March 07, 2019

As we assessed the political tea leaves ahead of the 2018 midterm elections, we tracked the results of off-year and special elections as potentially-instructive barometers of public sentiment. Our ultimate conclusion was that an anti-Trump wave was likely building, with energy and enthusiasm shooting through the roof on the Left. The Kavanaugh fiasco clearly helped rally conservative intensity, and almost certainly served as a primary factor in the GOP's Senate success. But on balance, we predicted that last November would feature a very good night for Democrats. We estimated that the opposition party would net around 40 House seats and half-a-dozen governorships, while Republicans would hold onto the Senate. All of these informed guesses turned out to be spot-on.

Now that all eyes have turned to 2020, what should we be looking for? The president's job approval numbers are mediocre, though his handling of the economy is a clear and crucial bright spot. Democrats' radicalism on certain issues appears to have triggered some degree of backlash -- but drawing any conclusions at this early stage is foolish. Huge X-factors regarding the president's re-election chances, like who the Democrats nominate and the future status of the US economy, are impossible to know at this stage. We'll perhaps learn more about voters' mood when Virginia's off-year legislative elections occur this fall (will the state leadership's racism scandals, alleged sexual assault, and abortion extremism help Republicans in this increasingly blue-tinted battleground, or will anti-Trumpism again carry the day?), but for now, all we have are bread crumbs. And a few 2019 bread crumbs suggest that the partisan pendulum may be swinging back toward the GOP in some places. Here's a bit of news out of Kentucky, where Democrats are again planning to spend big money to defeat Mitch McConnell next year:

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https://www.outline.com/EVz3Pe

[jmyrlefuller]

...and yet no breathless predictions of a red wave from those who predicted a blue wave the last time around. In fact, it's more like... crickets, really.

[Free Vulcan]

Great analysis. I will add that the mediocre flip of 40 seats by the Dems in the mid-terms was accomplished by 1) spigots of money, 2) running as moderates, and 3) ballot stealing harvesting in CA.

Yet the result was many if not a majority of those flips were by thin margins, meaning razor thin swings.

So now here are the Dems going all bat scat bonkers with full commie policy positions, and scorched earth political assassinations on Trump - right out of the gate.

While I don't put very much stock in special elections, we are only two months in to the term and the Dems have already lost a little ground and it seems, a little momentum.

[Formerly Once-Ler]

...and yet no breathless predictions of a red wave from those who predicted a blue wave the last time around. In fact, it's more like... crickets, really.

I'm glad you see a backlash.  I do not.   I believe the GOP still has something to offer voters despite the President.  State legislators spend less time defending the Moron-in-Chief and more time talking about taxes and spending, but I fully expect the House to remain rat controlled and I expect the Senate to move rat in 2020 because of the number of GOP Senators running for re-election.  Maybe the rats and fake news figure there is no point in predicting the obvious or they are still gun shy of being proven wrong in 2016.  I also got the last Presidential election all wrong so I'll wait to see the rat competition, but I think this game is over for 2 years.  Even if Trump wins re-election but fails to retain the Senate or win the House, nothing but ugliness gets passed.  Even if there is a red wave, and the GOP owns it all, I wouldn't expect more than reckless spending and talk like the last 2 years.

(personal note)
I really enjoy reading your posts @jmyrlefuller .  Especially when we don't agree because you post honestly and with unambiguous points.  I rarely question your meaning or sincerity because of your style.  I post with sarcasm, and pop culture references, and layers because my opinion is fuzzy, tenuous, and harder to edit into a recognizable idea. 
I just wanted to say I'm glad to be sharing this forum with you.

[Formerly Once-Ler]

Great analysis. I will add that the mediocre flip of 40 seats by the Dems in the mid-terms was accomplished by 1) spigots of money, 2) running as moderates, and 3) ballot stealing harvesting in CA.

1) that's new
2) that's never happened before
3) Thank Trump that Obama and Hitlery have been sentenced for their crimes, illegals have been expunged from our voter rolls, and voter ID is now law. 
That should deter future stealing.

[To-Whose-Benefit?]

Great analysis. I will add that the mediocre flip of 40 seats by the Dems in the mid-terms was accomplished by 1) spigots of money, 2) running as moderates, and 3) ballot stealing harvesting in CA.

Yet the result was many if not a majority of those flips were by thin margins, meaning razor thin swings.

So now here are the Dems going all bat scat bonkers with full commie policy positions, and scorched earth political assassinations on Trump - right out of the gate.

While I don't put very much stock in special elections, we are only two months in to the term and the Dems have already lost a little ground and it seems, a little momentum.

 

Yup.  It appears the Dems even managed to damage the huge margin of the black vote they counted on.

And now with the crock of meaningless psuedo-cover they've cooked up for the pro Pali/Hamas skunks they elected, Omar et al, I'm expecting a similar shrinking of their majority hold on Jewish Americans.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

I think the backlash will be against the new face of the Democrat party epitomized by these members.


They are

1. Women
2. Non-white
3. Radical

[Free Vulcan]

1) that's new
2) that's never happened before
3) Thank Trump that Obama and Hitlery have been sentenced for their crimes, illegals have been expunged from our voter rolls, and voter ID is now law. 
That should deter future stealing.

1) Actually, it is new. The level of money the Dems received this year from all contributors was unprecedented. But that's ok. Do some eyerolls and mouth some 8th grade cheerleader sarcasm, and that will make you right.

2) They've never been so blatantly fake, not even making the pretense of following up on what they say. They went the opposite direction the day the election was over. But that's ok. Do some eyerolls and mouth some 8th grade cheerleader sarcasm, and that will make you right.

3) The biggest chuck of the flips were in CA, which as ridiculously loosened their voter laws. Looks like the states with voter ID did just fine. But that's ok. Do some eyerolls and mouth some 8th grade cheerleader sarcasm, and that will make you right.

[Bigun]

“There is no room in this country for hyphenated Americans... The one absolutely certain way of bringing this nation to ruin, of preventing all possibility of it continuing to be a nation at all, would be to permit it to become a tangle of squabbling nationalities.”

 Theodore Roosevelt October 12, 1915

Looks like he knew exactly what he was talking about in this instance.

[To-Whose-Benefit?]

@Once-Ler said,

I post with sarcasm, and pop culture references, and layers because my opinion is fuzzy, tenuous, and harder to edit into a recognizable idea. 


So That explains it!

Facts aren't as important as Owning The Moral High Ground.

AOC

[Formerly Once-Ler]

1) Actually, it is new. The level of money the Dems received this year from all contributors was unprecedented. But that's ok. Do some eyerolls and mouth some 8th grade cheerleader sarcasm, and that will make you right.

2) They've never been so blatantly fake, not even making the pretense of following up on what they say. They went the opposite direction the day the election was over. But that's ok. Do some eyerolls and mouth some 8th grade cheerleader sarcasm, and that will make you right.

3) The biggest chuck of the flips were in CA, which as ridiculously loosened their voter laws. Looks like the states with voter ID did just fine. But that's ok. Do some eyerolls and mouth some 8th grade cheerleader sarcasm, and that will make you right.

None of that stuff is new.  What you say is untrue.  It's the same excuses I'm used too.  So expect 2020 deja vu.

[Free Vulcan]

None of that stuff is new.  What you say is untrue.  It's the same excuses I'm used too.  So expect 2020 deja vu.

The CA voter laws are definitely new. The way the Dems are financing themselves is definitely new, as is the level. Their bald faced radicalism is new.

Sorry you are too obtuse to understand what's happening in front of your face. Maybe some more eyerolls and sarcasm will help make your um, arguments better?

[Formerly Once-Ler]

The CA voter laws are definitely new. The way the Dems are financing themselves is definitely new, as is the level. Their bald faced radicalism is new.

Sorry you are too obtuse to understand what's happening in front of your face. Maybe some more eyerolls and sarcasm will help make your um, arguments better?

We disagree.

Ecclesiastes 1:9 King James Version (KJV)

9 The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun.

It is uncontroversial that rats outraise the GOP every election.  It is uncontroversial that rats lie to appeal to moderates.   It is uncontroversial that rats cheat.

I don't know why we disagree.