July 30, 2018, 12:05 am
The media once again peddle Panglossian midterm predictions.
The blue wave is back! Having lost sight of that storied surge this spring, when Democratic prospects appeared to be ebbing, Beltway soothsayers have again spied a cerulean tsunami on the horizon. A sudden spate of “news†stories predict that the wrath of the resistance will wash away the Republican stain from the Speaker’s Chair in the House, and may even swamp the GOP’s Senate majority. CNN, for example, reports, “Every sign is pointing to a Democratic wave in November.†Unfortunately for the left, this wet dream is based on the claims of discredited forecasters, mercenary pollsters, and roundheel pundits.
Let’s begin with discredited forecasters. The above-quoted CNN story and most other media reports about the resurgent blue wave relied heavily on a recent analysis by Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which changed 17 House ratings in favor of the Democrats. CNN and the rest of the media reported this as if it had come from the lips of the Delphic Oracle. But Sabato’s prognostications invariably overestimate Democratic prospects. In 2014, for example, the Crystal Ball’s projections did so in every category — House, Senate, and Governorships. They did it again in 2016, as the Richmond Times Dispatch gleefully reports:
The final Crystal Ball had Democrat Hillary Clinton winning the White House with 322 electoral votes to 216 for Trump.… The Crystal Ball also projected that the Democrats and Republicans each would have 50 U.S. Senate seats and that U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine, as vice president, would have the tie-breaking vote.
https://spectator.org/blue-wave-balderdash/
