Why It Doesn't Matter Who the Winner Is in PA-18

[Fishrrman]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/03/14/why_it_doesnt_matter_who_the_winner_is_in_pa-18_136527.html

Why It Doesn't Matter Who the Winner Is in PA-18
By Sean Trende
March 14, 2018

As of this writing, Democrat Conor Lamb is clinging to a lead of roughly 600 votes in the special election for Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District.  There are probably not enough uncounted votes out there for Republican Rick Saccone to pull out the win.  It also really doesn’t matter much, one way or the other (unless you are a Democrat living in the 18th who feels strongly about having a Democrat represent you in Washington). Here’s why:

The House is increasingly polarized.
There was a time that a narrowed House majority for a party would make for interesting politics in Washington, because enough members of each party could often be persuaded to vote for the other party’s agenda and truly complicate matters.  No more. The House is for all intents and purposes a parliamentary-style democracy, where members of a party support their party’s agenda.  There are exceptions (looking at you, Freedom Caucus), but generally speaking, Republicans vote for Republican policies.  In other words, reducing the GOP majority from 24 seats to 23 is likely to have a minimal impact on actual legislation in the House.

The district is disappearing.
It’s not even clear that this outcome will have an effect on the battle for the House. Because of a Supreme Court of Pennsylvania ruling that invalidated the state’s congressional map as a partisan gerrymander, this district has been substantially redrawn and made more Republican for the fall (though that change is subject to a higher court challenge). Conor Lamb will likely run in the redrawn 17th Congressional District, which will be a swing district. The effect of incumbency will help him somewhat, but 80 percent of the district will be new to him.

Full article at URL above...

[TomSea]

Again, in 2020, the Republicans will likely need to get some of these states we got in 2016, meaning from Pennsylvania to Wisconsin, not necessarily an easy task, Florida which I'd call a red-leaning state still seems to be a close call. Trump won it but I believe it has voted for some Democratic nominees in the past.

[Formerly Once-Ler]

In other words, reducing the GOP majority from 24 seats to 23 is likely to have a minimal impact on actual legislation in the House.

LOL as if the GOP controlled House was going to pass legislation by Nov. ^-^

It's just one seat.  and the 36 retiring GOP Congressmen are just 36 seats. and the 23 vulnerable House seats that voted for Clinton are just 23 seats. and the 100+ house seats that Trump won by 20 points or less is just 100+ seats.  Nothing to see here. 
All is well.

[DB]

What the GOP should learn from this is they need a new candidate fast.

[Concerned]

Of course, this race, in and of itself, is not that meaningful (even more so since this district is going away and the winner has to recompete in November).  Where it can be meaningful IMO is as a potential indicator on performance in the mid-terms (particularly the House of Republicans).   Dems have flipped about 40 seats since Trump’s inauguration.  He won this district by about 20 points, but it appears the Dems are likely to win it. 

There are 118 districts that have more Democratic-leaning electorates than the 18th district of Pennsylvania.  If the Dems can win the PA-18th, it seems as though the House could be in real jeopardy.  I know the argument that the Republicans fielded a weak candidate in the PA-18th, but this was a reliably Republican district.  I think the PA-18th shows just how motivated “The Resistance” is.  Barack Obama motivated the right during the 2010 mid-terms, and I believe Trump has done the same thing for the left in 2017/2018.

[Hoodat]

Here's what matters.  The GOP Establishment has become more entrenched than ever, which means that we are stuck with their complacency and laziness.  And we are also stuck with those who would rather see a Democrat take a seat than a TEA Party type Republican.

[Frank Cannon]

What the GOP should learn from this is they need a new candidate fast.

That is the one and only take away from this and the other special elections. Quality of candidate matters and running retreads with name recognition is not going to fly anymore, especially if the Rats are going to field candidates to the right of the GOPer.

[DCPatriot]

It matters because.....

Donald Trump won this 'district' by 20% in 2016.

This squeaker gives the DEMS and their accomplices in the mainstream media all the encouragement they need to continue on their current path/strategy.