Republicans need to wake up before they lose the House in November

[mystery-ak]

Republicans need to wake up before they lose the House in November
By Shermichael Singleton, opinion contributor — 03/06/18 12:00 PM EST

With midterms quickly approaching, 2018 generic congressional numbers indicate that Republicans should be concerned this November. Despite successfully passing tax reform, President Trump's rhetoric and behavior have been Republicans most significant challenge. With each step forward, there have been several steps back, forcing GOP insiders to become alarmed about Republican odds this November.

Though the numbers have fluctuated, most indicators point to a midterm that will be competitive for both Republicans and Democrats, with both parties investing tens of millions of dollars and going to great lengths for victory. While it's still early, Real Clear Politics gives Democrats an 8.8 advantage over Republicans, with the Democrat average being 45.9 in comparison to 37.1 for Republicans.

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http://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/376946-republicans-need-to-wake-up-before-they-lose-the-house

[Frank Cannon]

Someone needs to tell this dude that it is natural for the party holding the WH to lose in a Presidents first midterm. There is not a whole lot to be done about that.

[the_doc]

Someone needs to tell this dude that it is natural for the party holding the WH to lose in a Presidents first midterm. There is not a whole lot to be done about that.

As I have said on other threads, if Trump moves forward aggressively in his swamp-draining efforts, the Dems will get clobbered in November.

[txradioguy]

As I have said on other threads, if Trump moves forward aggressively in his swamp-draining efforts, the Dems will get clobbered in November.

It would be nice if he'd at least open the swamp drain.  So far he seems quite content with the contents of the swamp.

[the_doc]

It would be nice if he'd at least open the swamp drain.  So far he seems quite content with the contents of the swamp.

I have never been a diehard Trumper, but I have to give him credit as POTUS at this time.  Suffice it to say that Trump has been doing a lot of stuff behind the scenes.  This is why he has issued the National Emergency declaration (EO) on 12/21/17 and why he has recently issued another EO revising the guidelines for Military Tribunals.

We ain't seen nothin' yet, to be sure, but I believe Trump is going to shock America in a positive way fairly soon.

[txradioguy]

I have never been a diehard Trumper, but I have to give him credit as POTUS at this time.  Suffice it to say that Trump has been doing a lot of stuff behind the scenes.  This is why he has issued the National Emergency declaration (EO) on 12/21/17 and why he has recently issued another EO revising the guidelines for Military Tribunals.

What "mational emergency" was there that he needed to go all Obama-esque on with the EO?

So you're happy that he's ruling by fiat the same way his predecessor did and abusing and misusing the purpose of Executive Orders?

We ain't seen nothin' yet, to be sure, but I believe Trump is going to shock America in a positive way fairly soon.

Yeah the AWB of 2018...a tariff war and violating the 4th amendment rights of gun owners is really gonna do us a world of good.

 

[the_doc]

What "mational emergency" was there that he needed to go all Obama-esque on with the EO?

So you're happy that he's ruling by fiat the same way his predecessor did and abusing and misusing the purpose of Executive Orders?


Yeah the AWB of 2018...a tariff war and violating the 4th amendment rights of gun owners is really gonna do us a world of good.

 

I have been following stuff that you evidently haven't been following.  The Deep State has been pulling out all stops to destroy our Republic.  A vigorous response is not simply Obamaesque.  Obama was and still is part of the Deep State Conspiracy against the U.S.  And unlike Obama, Trump's EOs have been following federal statutes. 

(The NRA has said, by the way, that Trump was being cagey in his discussion of the gun and due process stuff.  They say he would never sign off on the restrictions that he put on the table as a matter of political theater.  By the same token, Trump evidently expects the tariff war to be very short-lived.  In short, we cannot trust anything he says--which is potentially a good thing under our weird circumstances [even though I will confess that it is also why I sat out the 2016 election].)

Wait and see what actually happens over the next several weeks.

[the_doc]

Wait and see what actually happens over the next several weeks.

I will add that the main impetus for the National Emergency declaration was Pizzagate.  Wait and see what happens when that mess of corruption forces its way into the public consciousness.  I believe it will blow you away.

[txradioguy]

I will add that the main impetus for the National Emergency declaration was Pizzagate.  Wait and see what happens when that mess of corruption forces its way into the public consciousness.  I believe it will blow you away.

 

[Free Vulcan]

The election is entirely in the GOP's hands. The Dems are making alot of moves, but at the end of the day in a governor election cycle, the GOP holds the cards.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Good lord are these people retarded.

[the_doc]

Good lord are these people retarded.

The National Emergency EO on 12/21/17 was declared necessary on the specific grounds of Human Trafficking and Corruption. You can see this for yourself in the public record.  Also, January was supposedly billed/renewed (?) by the WH as a War-on-Human-Trafficking Month.    

The MSM will not cover any of this stuff.  They haven't even mentioned Trump's EOs related to a State of National Emergency. That utterly bizarre blackout of news coverage suits Trump just fine for now.  He appears to be quietly but aggressively going after corrupt politicos and their cronies--which could account for about 14,000 federal indictments having been consummated and sealed in only three months' time (an annualized rate of sealed indictments said to be about 25 times higher than ever before in U.S. history, which normally sees fewer than 2,000 sealed indictments per year). 
 
The sealed indictments are documented on the government website (pacer.gov). 

Based on leaks from the NYPD, Trump will supposedly be able to prove that a large percentage of crooked politicos and their cronies are vicious pedophiles.  (The NYPD leakers have said that the crucial videos were found on Wiener's laptop.)
 
The Deep State has allegedly been using a pedophilia ring to blackmail persons of influence, thereby controlling them.  MS-13 has been targeted as facilitators of the conspiracy, including child abductions.  If the serious but unpublicized allegations are true, the Deep State corruption runs unfathomably, murderously deep.

[Concerned]

There's absolutely no evidence or data that I've seen that indicate the Republicans are in a position to hold the House. If someone else has it, please post it.

[the_doc]

There's absolutely no evidence or data that I've seen that indicate the Republicans are in a position to hold the House. If someone else has it, please post it.

I agree with Free Vulcan.  Everything depends on things that we are not yet seeing the GOP do.  Be patiently impatient.

[Free Vulcan]

In non-presidential elections, the GOP tends to outvote the Dems. Indiies vote only half the percentage of the general and are far less a factor, though they do swing with the popular sentiment. Still, there aren't alot of true Indies anymore, so turnout will either be dominated by right or left leaning ones, whoever has the most momentum.

So if Republicans are happy with their party, the GOP tends to do well. If not, like 2006, you get what happened back then. I think with all the money, effort, and antics the Dems are putting into it this time, the GOP doesn't have alot of room for error. If they don't get off the dime, they will lose.

[the_doc]

In non-presidential elections, the GOP tends to outvote the Dems. Indiies vote only half the percentage of the general and are far less a factor, though they do swing with the popular sentiment. Still, there aren't alot of true Indies anymore, so turnout will either be dominated by right or left leaning ones, whoever has the most momentum.

Good analysis, thanks.  And I still think that if Trump even survives 2018, the GOP will wallop the Dems.  (I know a lot of Republicans who don't like Trump as a person any more than I do, but that's okay if they like his results.  Let's wait and see.)

[Concerned]

In non-presidential elections, the GOP tends to outvote the Dems. Indiies vote only half the percentage of the general and are far less a factor, though they do swing with the popular sentiment. Still, there aren't alot of true Indies anymore, so turnout will either be dominated by right or left leaning ones, whoever has the most momentum.

Unfortunately in 2017 and 2018, we've seen the power of "The Resistence" from Virginia to Alabama to the 39 state seats that have flipped to the Dems since Trump's inauguration.  Combine that with the historic losses by the President's party in the first midterm, the data doesn't look good to me.

[Free Vulcan]

Unfortunately in 2017 and 2018, we've seen the power of "The Resistence" from Virginia to Alabama to the 39 state seats that have flipped to the Dems since Trump's inauguration.  Combine that with the historic losses by the President's party in the first midterm, the data doesn't look good to me.

Yeah but those are special elections. Small turnout generally, easy to bum rush your people there, especially with absentees. That enthusiasm may be strong but whether it's got depth is another matter.

Not saying it's not something to keep an eye on, but it's not a good predictor of trend. What really concerns me is the Alabama Senate race where some counties turned out 92% of Democrat 2016 voting levels. Those numbers are unprecedented and total BS and the GOP needs to investigate how they pulled it off.

[the_doc]

What really concerns me is the Alabama Senate race where some counties turned out 92% of Democrat 2016 voting levels. Those numbers are unprecedented and total BS and the GOP needs to investigate how they pulled it off.

I think the voting fraud was pretty bad in Alabama.  The DOJ is surely looking into it.

Speaking of voting fraud, the DHS report on nationwide voting fraud is scheduled to hit soon, and it may be a political game changer for us.  A lot of really angry people will be determined to punish the Democrat crooks.  So, there is no particular reason to believe we won't wallop the Dems in 2018 (if POTUS survives until November).   

[Concerned]

Yeah but those are special elections. Small turnout generally, easy to bum rush your people there, especially with absentees. That enthusiasm may be strong but whether it's got depth is another matter.

Not saying it's not something to keep an eye on, but it's not a good predictor of trend. What really concerns me is the Alabama Senate race where some counties turned out 92% of Democrat 2016 voting levels. Those numbers are unprecedented and total BS and the GOP needs to investigate how they pulled it off.

Of course not all the examples I cited were special elections (e.g., VA).  Sure, special elections are indeed impacted by turnout (as, often, are midterms), but Trump won Alabama 62% to 34% yet the Dems won that Senate seat.  "The Resistence" is highly motivated.  That's really my point.  I fully expect the Dems will take the House this year, and I fully expect Trump supporters will invent all kinds of excuses as to why it has nothing to do with Trump.  I expect a repeat of that in 2020 when the Trump is trounced.

[Free Vulcan]

Of course not all the examples I cited were special elections (e.g., VA).  Sure, special elections are indeed impacted by turnout (as, often, are midterms), but Trump won Alabama 62% to 34% yet the Dems won that Senate seat.  "The Resistence" is highly motivated.  That's really my point.  I fully expect the Dems will take the House this year, and I fully expect Trump supporters will invent all kinds of excuses as to why it has nothing to do with Trump.  I expect a repeat of that in 2020 when the Trump is trounced.

Yes they are motived. The unknown variable is how much depth do they have. They've pretty much disowned the blue collar wing of the party.

[the_doc]

Of course not all the examples I cited were special elections (e.g., VA).  Sure, special elections are indeed impacted by turnout (as, often, are midterms), but Trump won Alabama 62% to 34% yet the Dems won that Senate seat.  "The Resistence" is highly motivated.  That's really my point.  I fully expect the Dems will take the House this year, and I fully expect Trump supporters will invent all kinds of excuses as to why it has nothing to do with Trump.  I expect a repeat of that in 2020 when the Trump is trounced.

Roy Moore got smeared, rightly or wrongly, so he is not a bellwether for a GOP disaster.  Besides, there is meaningful evidence of election fraud in the Alabama election.  The Resistance is highly motivated to cheat, but I believe we will put a stop to election fraud once and for all this year.  The DHS report will be scathing. 

I also honestly believe we will have quite a few hangings for sedition and treason this year--if Trump himself survives.  

[Concerned]

Roy Moore got smeared, rightly or wrongly, so he is not a bellwether for a GOP disaster.  Besides, there is meaningful evidence of election fraud in the Alabama election.  The Resistance is highly motivated to cheat, but I believe we will put a stop to election fraud once and for all this year.  The DHS report will be scathing. 

I also honestly believe we will have quite a few hangings for sedition and treason this year--if Trump himself survives.

You’re already supporting my point about the invention of excuses for the expected losses in the midterms.

Good luck with the hangings. It’s 2018. Hangings are only legal in Washington and New Hampshire, and Billy Bailey was the last person hanged over 20 years ago in 1996. I predict zero hangings this year. We’ll see who’s right at the end of the year.

[the_doc]

You’re already supporting my point about the invention of excuses for the expected losses in the midterms.

That's a flagrant misrepresentation of what I am saying.  I am asserting that we should do very, very well in November of 2018.  The only qualifier I have added is that Trump has to survive.   

Good luck with the hangings. It’s 2018. Hangings are only legal in Washington and New Hampshire, and Billy Bailey was the last person hanged over 20 years ago in 1996. I predict zero hangings this year. We’ll see who’s right at the end of the year.

Well, I have heard that the military's method is still hanging--but the method of capital punishment is not important.  The important point is that we will see sedition and treason cases being tried by the U.S. military in 2018.  (Why do you think Trump declared a State of National Emergency?  And why did he recently issue another EO amending the guidelines for Military Tribunals?  Hmmm....shouldn't we connect the dots?  Trump is not telling us openly what he's doing, but he has been letting his staff leak a lot of stuff.)   

[Concerned]

That's a flagrant misrepresentation of what I am saying.  I am asserting that we should do very, very well in November of 2018.  The only qualifier I have added is that Trump has to survive.   

Well, I have heard that the military's method is still hanging--but the method of capital punishment is not important.  The important point is that we will see sedition and treason cases being tried by the U.S. military in 2018.  (Why do you think Trump declared a State of National Emergency?  And why did he recently issue another EO amending the guidelines for Military Tribunals?  Hmmm....shouldn't we connect the dots?  Trump is not telling us openly what he's doing, but he has been letting his staff leak a lot of stuff.)   

The last US military execution was 1961. I don’t expect to see “quite a few” this year. In fact, according to the Bureau of Justice and the Death Penalty Information Center, the average time between sentencing and execution in the US was 190 months, or just under 16 years.  Good luck getting that reduced to less than 9 months especially since we don’t even yet have indictments for treason or sedition. “Quite a few hanging” this year. Jeez. It’s just silly. Have a good night.