The Magnetic Field Is Shifting. The Poles May Flip. This Could Get Bad.

[rangerrebew]

The Magnetic Field Is Shifting. The Poles May Flip. This Could Get Bad.
The shield that protects the Earth from solar radiation is under attack from within. We can’t prevent it, but we ought to prepare.
01.26.2018 / By Alanna Mitchell
 

One day in 1905, the French geophysicist Bernard Brunhes brought back to his lab some rocks he’d unearthed from a freshly cut road near the village of Pont Farin. When he analyzed their magnetic properties, he was astonished at what they showed: Millions of years ago, the Earth’s magnetic poles had been on the opposite sides of the planet. North was south and south was north. The discovery spoke of planetary anarchy. Scientists had no way to explain it.


When next the poles change places, the consequences for the electrical and electronic infrastructure that runs civilization will be dire. The question is when that will happen.

Today, we know that the poles have changed places hundreds of times, most recently 780,000 years ago. (Sometimes, the poles try to reverse positions but then snap back into place, in what is called an excursion. The last time was about 40,000 years ago.) We also know that when they flip next time, the consequences for the electrical and electronic infrastructure that runs modern civilization will be dire. The question is when that will happen.

https://undark.org/article/books-alanna-mitchell-spinning-magnet/

[rangerrebew]

This couldn't have something to do with "global warming" by any chance?

[driftdiver]

Oh no were all gonna die.

On the plus side the y2k consultants are ready

[WingNot]

Oh no were all gonna die.

On the plus side the y2k consultants are ready

Those hacks were the Milton Waddams of the day.   I have no doubt many still reside in windowless cubbiehole closets in the basement of every large company in the USA.

[Smokin Joe]

Those hacks were the Milton Waddams of the day.   I have no doubt many still reside in windowless cubbiehole closets in the basement of every large company in the USA.

Many of the people who brought the mainframes up to speed for Y2K were retired when they went back to work to do so. Many of them are gone, now.

[Victoria33]

@Smokin Joe
@mystery-ak

I sent the link to my Bob, the earth scientist, to tell me what he thinks of the article.  I'll let you know what he says.

[Free Vulcan]

Well if we would somehow start spinning on an axis of somewhere say, around Brazil as the new north or south pole, then yes that would be problematic.

[Sanguine]

Oh no were all gonna die.

On the plus side the y2k consultants are ready

Yes, Y2k sprang to my mind also. 

[WingNot]

What Would Happen If the North and South Poles Were Flipped?.

What About Human Extinction?
Although many unwanted and unexpected effects may result from geomagnetic reversal, it’s unlikely that it would cause a global apocalypse. According to Monika Korte, the scientific director of the Niemegk Geomagnetic Observatory at GFZ Potsdam in Germany, “Even if the field becomes very weak, at the Earth’s surface, we are shielded from radiation by the atmosphere. Similarly as we cannot see or feel the presence of the geomagnetic field now, we most likely would not notice any significant change from a reversal.”

https://www.scienceabc.com/nature/happen-north-south-poles-flipped.html

[Smokin Joe]

@Smokin Joe
@mystery-ak

I sent the link to my Bob, the earth scientist, to tell me what he thinks of the article.  I'll let you know what he says.

As the article states, the poles may flip, and have done so numerous times in the past. Bands of different magnetic polarity preserved in seafloor basalt which correspond on either side of the mid-Atlantic Ridge, for instance were part of the evidence which showed that the seafloor originated in the submarine rifts at the middle of the ridge, and had moved outward with time. No argument about that, nor whether it will happen again, just a question of when.

If the poles flip, it has been postulated that the magnetic field collapses, even momentarily, and exposes the Earth to considerable radiation, and quite possibly, induced currents from the shifting magnetic field would damage or destroy electronics. We are looking at an event much like Yellowstone eruptions. We can figure it will happen again: the question is when. We can't prevent it, nor are we likely to be able to do anything which would trigger it (just along for the ride). We may not be able to adequately prep for it, aside from a large stockpile of stuff and a deep burrow, and in the  case of magnetic field shifts, that might not be enough to prevent electronic/electrical damage even with substantial Faraday cages.

[dfwgator]

! No longer available

[Oceander]

If the north-south magnetic axis just rotates through 180 degrees over the course of several months to a year, without the magnetic field collapsing or significantly varying its shape near the surface, then it would be extremely annoying but something we could adapt to without catastrophic results. 

On the other hand, if the field suddenly collapses, and then springs back up in a new configuration, that could cause catastrophic damage to everything electronic, which in turn could cause a general social collapse. 

[WingNot]

If the north-south magnetic ...

On the other hand, if the field suddenly collapses, and then springs back up in a new configuration, that could cause catastrophic damage to everything electronic, which in turn could cause a general social collapse.

Just like Y2k.   Speculative doomsday bulletin.

[dfwgator]

On the other hand, if the field suddenly collapses, and then springs back up in a new configuration, that could cause catastrophic damage to everything electronic, which in turn could cause a general social collapse.

! No longer available

[Oceander]

Just like Y2k.   Speculative doomsday bulletin.

Nope. 

[truth_seeker]

If the wifi remains up, we can all watch it on the interwebs

[Smokin Joe]

Nope.

Precisely. This has happened before, we just weren't there to observe it, and we have no experience with it vs our technology.

As for Y2K, that event was a crisis because of the way the software was written, and unprecedented. Billions were spent to prevent it because it could be prevented by rewriting a pile of code.

[WingNot]

Nope.

Yep.

[Suppressed]

As the article states, the poles may flip, and have done so numerous times in the past. Bands of different magnetic polarity preserved in seafloor basalt which correspond on either side of the mid-Atlantic Ridge, for instance were part of the evidence which showed that the seafloor originated in the submarine rifts at the middle of the ridge, and had moved outward with time. No argument about that, nor whether it will happen again, just a question of when.

If the poles flip, it has been postulated that the magnetic field collapses, even momentarily, and exposes the Earth to considerable radiation, and quite possibly, induced currents from the shifting magnetic field would damage or destroy electronics. We are looking at an event much like Yellowstone eruptions. We can figure it will happen again: the question is when. We can't prevent it, nor are we likely to be able to do anything which would trigger it (just along for the ride). We may not be able to adequately prep for it, aside from a large stockpile of stuff and a deep burrow, and in the  case of magnetic field shifts, that might not be enough to prevent electronic/electrical damage even with substantial Faraday cages.

@Smokin Joe
@Victoria33

Good summary.


Though I don't want it to happen, because of the disruption it would cause to us and wildlife, it would be interesting scientifically, to answer whether these flips are instantaneous on a short timescale or just geologically. And it will be "fun" to take measurements on the new basalt adjacent to the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

No problem!

! No longer available

[thackney]

If the poles flip, it has been postulated that the magnetic field collapses, even momentarily, and exposes the Earth to considerable radiation, and quite possibly, induced currents from the shifting magnetic field would damage or destroy electronics.

No way.  Not enough power at those levels, not even close.

[GtHawk]

The story from NASA wasn't quite as scary in this article from 2006.

https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-poleReversal.html

[Oceander]

No way.  Not enough power at those levels, not even close.

Depends on how quickly it collapses.

[thackney]

Depends on how quickly it collapses.

No, it doesn't.  The field strength is too weak.  If it stopped in milliseconds, switched back and forth at the same speed, it would not destroy electronics.

But the massive amount of rotating mass that generates this field isn't going to make a flip in weeks, it will take months/years.

[Restored]

Many of the people who brought the mainframes up to speed for Y2K were retired when they went back to work to do so. Many of them are gone, now.

Not me.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

shifting of earth's magnetic poles has been happening since the earth was created.  This is nothing new and akin to shifting weather patterns, aka climate change.

Nothing that humans could do about it anyway.

[sneakypete]

When next the poles change places, the consequences for the electrical and electronic infrastructure that runs civilization will be dire. 

@rangerrebew

Yeah,that's one way of putting it.

[sneakypete]

Oh no were all gonna die.

 

@driftdiver

Not really. Only most of the worlds population. Chances are all of us alive today will already be dead long before it happens.

[sneakypete]

Well if we would somehow start spinning on an axis of somewhere say, around Brazil as the new north or south pole, then yes that would be problematic.

@Free Vulcan

Yeah,but it will only be minor things like new continents rising up out of the ocean as old ones become submerged.

How do you think it came about that shark and whale bones are found in the Rockies?

[sneakypete]

What Would Happen If the North and South Poles Were Flipped?.

https://www.scienceabc.com/nature/happen-north-south-poles-flipped.html

@Wingnut

Did that scientist get her degree from the back of a cereal box? Who thinks the waters in the oceans and lakes all around the world are going to remain in place when the poles flip?

[Suppressed]

@Wingnut

Did that scientist get her degree from the back of a cereal box? Who thinks the waters in the oceans and lakes all around the world are going to remain in place when the poles flip?

[Smokin Joe]

No way.  Not enough power at those levels, not even close.

Not just the collapsing global field, but the loss of Van Allen Belt shielding would open up the surface to straight solar radiation. It might not take down the grid, but the little things are a lot more susceptible. We haven't seen one of these events before, so if it happens, I reckon we'll find out.

[Smokin Joe]

@Free Vulcan

Yeah,but it will only be minor things like new continents rising up out of the ocean as old ones become submerged.

How do you think it came about that shark and whale bones are found in the Rockies?

Eagles packing a snack....

[Smokin Joe]

@driftdiver

Not really. Only most of the worlds population. Chances are all of us alive today will already be dead long before it happens.

Yeah, we are all gonna die, but probably not from one of these. Not likely we'll live long enough to 'see' the event.

[sneakypete]

@Suppressed

So,you think the poles can flip and the water will stay where it is?

[sneakypete]

Yeah, we are all gonna die, but probably not from one of these. Not likely we'll live long enough to 'see' the event.

@Smokin Joe

We are not dealing with time on a human level,either. We are dealing with time on a cosmic level. It's very possible that by the time it happens we have a couple of hundred years warning exactly when it will  happen,and the capability to remove what is left of mankind to orbit somewhere until things have settled back down again.

Or maybe even enough knowledge to counter and prevent it from happening at all?

[Sanguine]

Heck, I don't know:

Scientists understand that Earth's magnetic field has flipped its polarity many times over the millennia. In other words, if you were alive about 800,000 years ago, and facing what we call north with a magnetic compass in your hand, the needle would point to 'south.' This is because a magnetic compass is calibrated based on Earth's poles. The N-S markings of a compass would be 180 degrees wrong if the polarity of today's magnetic field were reversed. Many doomsday theorists have tried to take this natural geological occurrence and suggest it could lead to Earth's destruction. But would there be any dramatic effects? The answer, from the geologic and fossil records we have from hundreds of past magnetic polarity reversals, seems to be 'no.'...

https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-poleReversal.html

[Suppressed]

@Suppressed

So,you think the poles can flip and the water will stay where it is?

Yes.  The magnetic poles have relatively little to do with the water being where it is.  There are, of course, interactions with ocean currents depending on salinity, etc.  But as for "remaining in place"...yes.

[Suppressed]

Heck, I don't know:

There's some evidence that mass extinctions in the past are tied to geomagnetic reversals...sometimes.  But the mechanisms are unclear.

The thing is, there are lots of issues beyond the direct radiation problem.  For example, without protection from the solar wind, oxygen is blown away from the atmosphere.  Modeling by Wei, et al., a few years ago indicates that this might be the reason for the correlations to mass extinctions.

Highlights

•Geomagnetic field reversal substantially weakens the protection for the atmosphere.

•Solar wind energizes more oxygen ions to escape when geomagnetic field is weakened.

•Oxygen escape may explain the drop of atmospheric level during mass extinction.

•The causal relation between reversal and mass extinction should be “many-to-one”.

•The simulated oxygen escape rate based on knowledge of Mars support our hypothesis.

Abstract
The evolution of life is affected by variations of atmospheric oxygen level and geomagnetic field intensity. Oxygen can escape into interplanetary space as ions after gaining momentum from solar wind, but Earth's strong dipole field reduces the momentum transfer efficiency and the ion outflow rate, except for the time of geomagnetic polarity reversals when the field is significantly weakened in strength and becomes Mars-like in morphology. The newest databases available for the Phanerozoic era illustrate that the reversal rate increased and the atmospheric oxygen level decreased when the marine diversity showed a gradual pattern of mass extinctions lasting millions of years. We propose that accumulated oxygen escape during an interval of increased reversal rate could have led to the catastrophic drop of oxygen level, which is known to be a cause of mass extinction. We simulated the oxygen ion escape rate for the Triassic–Jurassic event, using a modified Martian ion escape model with an input of quiet solar wind inferred from Sun-like stars. The results show that geomagnetic reversal could enhance the oxygen escape rate by 3–4 orders only if the magnetic field was extremely weak, even without consideration of space weather effects. This suggests that our hypothesis could be a possible explanation of a correlation between geomagnetic reversals and mass extinction. Therefore, if this causal relation indeed exists, it should be a “many-to-one” scenario rather the previously considered “one-to-one”, and planetary magnetic field should be much more important than previously thought for planetary habitability.

I personally have liked to ponder this one, because it opens up other things to ponder.  Obviously, if the flip is rapid enough, then there won't be much time for oxygen to escape.  But if this is a slow flip, then would a counter to it possibly be the cultivation of high-photosynthesis plants...and pumping our atmospheric CO₂ levels up to help with that?

 

[sneakypete]

Yes.  The magnetic poles have relatively little to do with the water being where it is.  There are, of course, interactions with ocean currents depending on salinity, etc.  But as for "remaining in place"...yes.

@Suppressed

The way I read it,the magnetic poles themselves won't flip,but the planet will flip,making today's South Pole the North Pole,and today's North Pole the South Pole.

[thackney]

@Suppressed

So,you think the poles can flip and the water will stay where it is?

Yes I do.  I don't confuse gravity with magnetic forces.

Try to use magnets to move water, sea water, etc around in a bowl.

[thackney]

@Suppressed

The way I read it,the magnetic poles themselves won't flip,but the planet will flip,making today's South Pole the North Pole,and today's North Pole the South Pole.

You should read it again.

They are talking about a variation in the relative speeds of the iron core and the molten metals surrounding it.

https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-poleReversal.html

[thackney]

Not just the collapsing global field, but the loss of Van Allen Belt shielding would open up the surface to straight solar radiation. It might not take down the grid, but the little things are a lot more susceptible. We haven't seen one of these events before, so if it happens, I reckon we'll find out.

If that was the case, wouldn't we massive die outs of animals every time it happened?

Reversals are the rule, not the exception. Earth has settled in the last 20 million years into a pattern of a pole reversal about every 200,000 to 300,000 years, although it has been more than twice that long since the last reversal. A reversal happens over hundreds or thousands of years, and it is not exactly a clean back flip. Magnetic fields morph and push and pull at one another, with multiple poles emerging at odd latitudes throughout the process. Scientists estimate reversals have happened at least hundreds of times over the past three billion years.

https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-poleReversal.html

[sneakypete]

You should read it again.

They are talking about a variation in the relative speeds of the iron core and the molten metals surrounding it.

https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-poleReversal.html

@thackney

Ok,thanks. I confess to  not having read that link. I was going on what I had read somewhere else a month or so ago.

[Joe Wooten]

@Free Vulcan

Yeah,but it will only be minor things like new continents rising up out of the ocean as old ones become submerged.

How do you think it came about that shark and whale bones are found in the Rockies?

That came from sea floors being pushed up into mountain ranges from continental drift when two continental plates slam together. 

[Smokin Joe]

If that was the case, wouldn't we massive die outs of animals every time it happened?

Reversals are the rule, not the exception. Earth has settled in the last 20 million years into a pattern of a pole reversal about every 200,000 to 300,000 years, although it has been more than twice that long since the last reversal. A reversal happens over hundreds or thousands of years, and it is not exactly a clean back flip. Magnetic fields morph and push and pull at one another, with multiple poles emerging at odd latitudes throughout the process. Scientists estimate reversals have happened at least hundreds of times over the past three billion years.

https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-poleReversal.html

Die outs would depend on radiation sensitivity, duration of any field collapse, and the effect that magnetic field disturbances would have on migration patterns. Because the effects would not be global in partial disruptions, if those are the rule, local populations may be affected while others survive--the species goes on. If the reversal was instantaneous, the effects would be most harsh on the 'day side', and the 'night side' would suffer the least effects. There has been a lot of change in megafauna, but getting 200K resolution out of the fossil record going back is a mite more difficult, and I'm not sure the question of extinctions or even die offs has been addressed with respect to field reversals.

[Sanguine]

Die outs would depend on radiation sensitivity, duration of any field collapse, and the effect that magnetic field disturbances would have on migration patterns. Because the effects would not be global in partial disruptions, if those are the rule, local populations may be affected while others survive--the species goes on. If the reversal was instantaneous, the effects would be most harsh on the 'day side', and the 'night side' would suffer the least effects. There has been a lot of change in megafauna, but getting 200K resolution out of the fossil record going back is a mite more difficult, and I'm not sure the question of extinctions or even die offs has been addressed with respect to field reversals.

Joe, mass extinctions and die-offs have been researched, and there has not been a clear link found. 

[Smokin Joe]

Joe, mass extinctions and die-offs have been researched, and there has not been a clear link found.

Well, if that's the case, I'd love a link to that research.

[Au_Jus]

Die outs would depend on radiation sensitivity, duration of any field collapse, and the effect that magnetic field disturbances would have on migration patterns. Because the effects would not be global in partial disruptions, if those are the rule, local populations may be affected while others survive--the species goes on. If the reversal was instantaneous, the effects would be most harsh on the 'day side', and the 'night side' would suffer the least effects. There has been a lot of change in megafauna, but getting 200K resolution out of the fossil record going back is a mite more difficult, and I'm not sure the question of extinctions or even die offs has been addressed with respect to field reversals.

Why would there be any field collapse?  As long as the core is spinning and molten we'll have a magnetic field. 

I'm sure there will be some minor fluxuation, but collapse?  I'm not sure that will happen.

[Sanguine]

Well, if that's the case, I'd love a link to that research.

When I get home, I'll look in my internet history and find that for you.