Hurricane Harvey Public Advisory

[catfish1957]

I live in an area of the map where red touches orange so it looks like I'm gonna get a lot of much needed rain over the next few days.



I hope everyone in the area weathers the storm without too much trouble.

Graphic is from an earlier run before the unexpected intensification and long term stalling.  I expect the next map to be much uglier.

[Mom MD]

Guess I'd better get ready for 4$/gallon gas.  All you Texas briefers stay safe!
The only good thing out of this would be if Trump acts to allow more refinery construction and to retool the aging ones we already have.  Spreading our refining capacity over a larger geographic area (with new construction) couldn't hurt either.

[catfish1957]

Guess I'd better get ready for 4$/gallon gas.  All you Texas briefers stay safe!
The only good thing out of this would be if Trump acts to allow more refinery construction and to retool the aging ones we already have.  Spreading our refining capacity over a larger geographic area (with new construction) couldn't hurt either.

Absolutely right.  However, added to the government obstruction, there is a significant NIMBY attitude that hurts.

[thackney]

Praying for you and all my Texas family. The are on lake Conroe.  I have seen pictures of the water up to their back porch but it has never gone higher. I hope it holds this time as well.  Harvey forcasted to be a cat 3 by landfall.

Damn...

[truth_seeker]

<***>

As the moderator of the Texas board, I am removing this comment as off-topic, inflammatory and stupid.

Heck I thought it was right on target, considering the grief that GW bush got, over the New Orleans disaster.

I have empathy for folks with natural disasters. I know my relatives in Blanco, Austin and Wichita Falls are okay, but worried about those who recently moved to Cypress TX (from 7400 ft. elev. Flagstaff).

[Sanguine]

My weather app says they're evacuation some areas along the coast. 

[AllThatJazzZ]

Here in Corpus Christi, they are predicting a 6-ft storm surge.

I know it's not news to you, but that's the most deadly aspect of these stinking storms. Please take every precaution!

We're under a storm surge warning too. Although we're right on the coast (Galveston County), our predicted storm surge is not as threatening as yours.

(@mystery-ak  I made it! Thanks for tweaking stuff.)

[catfish1957]

My weather app says they're evacuation some areas along the coast.

Holy smokes!!!!   Hurricane Hunter plane has found 88kt (96 mph) winds in the NE quadrant.  Hold on to your hat.  I expect that next full advisory NHC will deem it a Cat 2.

12 noon intermeidate advisory has it as 80 mph Cat 1. 

[catfish1957]

I know it's not news to you, but that's the most deadly aspect of these stinking storms. Please take every precaution!

We're under a storm surge warning too. Although we're right on the coast (Galveston County), our predicted storm surge is not as threatening as yours.

(@mystery-ak  I made it! Thanks for tweaking stuff.)

Just read an interesting fact that Corpus' worst surge was in 1919 @12 ft.  At present storm course, I'd say that record is in danger of being broken.  Still waiting for the updated QPF run to get to see how bad this rain will be.

[Ghost Bear]

Holy smokes!!!!   Hurricane Hunter plane has found 88kt (96 mph) winds in the NE quadrant.  Hold on to your hat.

Wow, this storm seems to be ramping up much quicker and stronger than they had predicted it would!

[catfish1957]

Wow, this storm seems to be ramping up much quicker and stronger than they had predicted it would!

Yep, hate to throw "C" 's at everyone but this one is conjuring up visions of Carla and Celia.

[AllThatJazzZ]

San Antonio and other inland areas aren't safe because of the stalling. Y'all need to be monitoring too.

School closings are being announced here in the Houston-Galveston area.

[mystery-ak]

Take Care Texans!

[AllThatJazzZ]

Yep, hate to throw "C" 's at everyone but this one is conjuring up visions of Carla and Celia.

Bite your tongue! 

[thackney]

Holy smokes!!!!   Hurricane Hunter plane has found 88kt (96 mph) winds in the NE quadrant.  Hold on to your hat.  I expect that next full advisory NHC will deem it a Cat 2.

12 noon intermeidate advisory has it as 80 mph Cat 1.

Predicted Cat 3

[Sanguine]

The only good news is that the weather guys tend to hyper-hype events like this.  Let's hope that holds true.

[Elderberry]

Yep, hate to throw "C" 's at everyone but this one is conjuring up visions of Carla and Celia.

Another "C" is Cell, as in supercell.  Hurricanes  carry with them individual supercells, which are rotating, well-organized thunderstorms. And these supercells can and do spawn tornadoes.

[catfish1957]

Interesting graphic showing the entire Texas coast (and about 50 mi inland) to have a >50% expectation of T.S force winds......

[Wingnut]

The only good news is that the weather guys tend to hyper-hype events like this.  Let's hope that holds true.

Agreed.   I really think the 24 hour news cycle has done more harm in hyping than good in protecting.   The Weather channel has become the biggest joke on cable TV.

[catfish1957]

Agreed.   I really think the 24 hour news cycle has done more harm in hyping than good in protecting.   The Weather channel has become the biggest joke on cable TV.

One of the funniest onsite storm coverage I have ever seen was during Rita.  Storm reporter was acting (pre-storm) like the wind was bending himself over Cantore style.  As he was performing his antics a citizen walked behind him walking his dog and started laughing.

p.s.   I called that station wanting to buy the clip, and they claimed the event didn't happen. 

[Wingnut]

One of the funniest onsite storm coverage I have ever seen was during Rita.  Storm reporter was acting (pre-storm) like the wind was bending himself over Cantore style.  As he was performing his antics a citizen walked behind him walking his dog and started laughing.

Flexibility training came in handy for the job!   LOL

[Mom MD]

Holy smokes!!!!   Hurricane Hunter plane has found 88kt (96 mph) winds in the NE quadrant.  Hold on to your hat.  I expect that next full advisory NHC will deem it a Cat 2.

12 noon intermeidate advisory has it as 80 mph Cat 1.

Now saying could be cat 4 at landfall and may not weaken much within 24 hours after landfall as it won't move very much after landfall

[catfish1957]

Flexibility training came in handy for the job!   LOL

Dont want to leave Ike out either.  Another classic from the WC vault.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=422rBuG2uDg

[Bigun]

Just for informational purposes you should be aware that storms hitting the Texas gulf coast almost always make a more northward turn before moving inland.  This is due to friction as the storm begins to interact with the land mass. 

You can look at the actual track of any storm you wish at the link below.

https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/?redirect=301ocm

[catfish1957]

Just for informational purposes you should be aware that storms hitting the Texas gulf coast almost always make a more northward turn before moving inland.  This is due to friction as the storm begins to interact with the land mass. 

You can look at the actual track of any storm you wish at the link below.

https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/?redirect=301ocm

Gilbert may have been the exception. (just south of Brownsville)  Of course there weren't many storms like Gilbert.

[catfish1957]

Now saying could be cat 4 at landfall and may not weaken much within 24 hours after landfall as it won't move very much after landfall

Next QPF model run will shock people (prediction).

[Wingnut]

Next QPF model run will shock people (prediction).

Cat 10!  We are all gonna die!

[AllThatJazzZ]

The only good news is that the weather guys tend to hyper-hype events like this. 

I'd rather they over-hype it. I really hate when things are much worse than they were projected to be. I can deal with over-preparing. This is probably because I nearly made a couple of costly decisions in my younger years, but I went what I considered over and above just to ease my parents' fears. Thank God! If I hadn't, I might not be typing this post right now. And, yes, I had to admit to my parents that they were right. < sigh >

[catfish1957]

Cat 10!  We are all gonna die!

888ohnoes

Seriously, I bet we see 30- 40 inch 7 day projections in spots.  Of course weathermen have been wrong huh?

[thackney]

888ohnoes

Seriously, I bet we see 30- 40 inch 7 day projections in spots.  Of course weathermen have been wrong huh?

I read earlier this morning 30" in isolated areas. 

[catfish1957]

I'd rather they over-hype it. I really hate when things are much worse than they were projected to be. I can deal with over-preparing. This is probably because I nearly made a couple of costly decisions in my younger years, but I went what I considered over and above just to ease my parents' fears. Thank God! If I hadn't, I might not be typing this post right now. And, yes, I had to admit to my parents that they were right. < sigh >

I remember Humberto back in 2007.  It went from a weak depression to Hurricane in 18 hours.  Caught everyone off guard.

[AllThatJazzZ]

Next QPF model run will shock people (prediction).

I don't mind telling you that this is getting nerve-wracking to me. Whoever mentioned Carla and Celia might have been prescient. Was that you?

[GrouchoTex]

At first, we thought this was going to be another Alison, which was bad enough.
Now, it seems like Alison on Steroids.
This is starting to get serious.
Last I saw was a Cat 3 prediction and moving slightly up the coast from the 7:00 am prediction.

Should be another advisory now, since it is past 1:00 pm central.
I am in Sugar Land, southwest of Houston.
I usually don't get flooded, but I can't go anywhere.
I have to somehow make it around the addicks reservoir issue to get to work.
I usually can't get into North Katy for a while.

Lost a turbo vent and on side of my backyard fence during IKE in 2008, and felt pretty lucky.

[catfish1957]

I don't mind telling you that this is getting nerve-wracking to me. Whoever mentioned Carla and Celia might have been prescient. Was that you?

Yeah, but citing was those storms was a little over the top.  I think this storm has that capability, but that obviously is not for certain.  Best thing is to prepare, and get out if necessary.  In my prior working life I was a SHE Mgr. at a petrochemical facility, and part of my responsibilities was supervising emergency management operations, and advisement to plant manager.

Riding out a major hurricane is not something you want to experience.

[thackney]

At first, we thought this was going to be another Alison, which was bad enough.
Now, it seems like Alison on Steroids.
This is starting to get serious.
Last I saw was a Cat 3 prediction and moving slightly up the coast from the 7:00 am prediction.

Should be another advisory now, since it is past 1:00 pm central.
I am in Sugar Land, southwest of Houston.
I usually don't get flooded, but I can't go anywhere.
I have to somehow make it around the addicks reservoir issue to get to work.
I usually can't get into North Katy for a while.

Lost a turbo vent and on side of my backyard fence during IKE in 2008, and felt pretty lucky.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/241805.shtml?

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located
by reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 93.6
West.  Harvey is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h).  A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, and
Harvey's forward speed is forecast to slow down during the next
couple of days.  On the forecast track, Harvey will approach the
middle Texas coast on Friday and make landfall Friday night or early
Saturday, and then stall near the middle Texas coast through the
weekend.

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph
(140 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional rapid strengthening is
forecast, and Harvey is expected to become a major hurricane by
Friday before it reaches the middle Texas coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the minimum
central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).

[GrouchoTex]

Riding out a major hurricane is not something you want to experience.

It was a lot more fun when I was younger and stupid, that's for sure.

[catfish1957]

At first, we thought this was going to be another Alison, which was bad enough.
Now, it seems like Alison on Steroids.
This is starting to get serious.
Last I saw was a Cat 3 prediction and moving slightly up the coast from the 7:00 am prediction.

Should be another advisory now, since it is past 1:00 pm central.
I am in Sugar Land, southwest of Houston.
I usually don't get flooded, but I can't go anywhere.
I have to somehow make it around the addicks reservoir issue to get to work.
I usually can't get into North Katy for a while.

Lost a turbo vent and on side of my backyard fence during IKE in 2008, and felt pretty lucky.

12z Euro run is complete, and it is not good news.  953mb storm in our neck of the woods.  Not sure if this a recurve or course change at this point.  Folks, remember this is just one of many models the NHC has in its aresenal, and does not reflect present track.

[Mom MD]

Yeah, but citing was those storms was a little over the top.  I think this storm has that capability, but that obviously is not for certain.  Best thing is to prepare, and get out if necessary.  In my prior working life I was a SHE Mgr. at a petrochemical facility, and part of my responsibilities was supervising emergency management operations, and advisement to plant manager.

Riding out a major hurricane is not something you want to experience.

The weather channel is starting to say Celia...   who knows?  If you are prepared for the worst then the rest doesn't matter.  My mom in Florida says the only things absolutely necessary to stock up on are toilet paper chocolate and wine!  (Yes I'm kidding they close the hurricane shutters and leave town if anything approaching)

[Wingnut]

It was a lot more fun when I was younger and stupid, that's for sure.

Sure was.  I have a picture of our hurricane supplies somewhere.

[catfish1957]

Sure was.  I have a picture of our hurricane supplies somewhere.

You mean I wasn't the only 20 something Texan yelling "Hurricane Party"?

[Wingnut]

You mean I wasn't the only 20 something Texan yelling "Hurricane Party"?

This was just a few years ago.   20 times 3!

[catfish1957]

Latest intensity forecast models......  (Thanks to tropicaltidbits btw)

[GrouchoTex]

You mean I wasn't the only 20 something Texan yelling "Hurricane Party"?

Not during Alicia, you weren't!

[Elderberry]

Not during Alicia, you weren't!

I rode out Alicia at my sister's. When the eye came over, we went out to check on a neighbor's dog. They were out of town. The dog was OK, just scared. Its dog house had blown over and into the chain link fence. there was about 6 inches of water in the yard and the dog rode it out under the dog house. It was very eerie going out in the eye.

[Wingnut]

I rode out Alicia at my sister's. When the eye came over, we went out to check on a neighbor's dog.

Alicia always could get her freak on with the old one eye and party!.

[txradioguy]

Updated to a CAT 3.

@thackney you got that flood prevention system set up?

[AllThatJazzZ]

I rode out Alicia at my sister's. When the eye came over, we went out to check on a neighbor's dog. They were out of town. The dog was OK, just scared. Its dog house had blown over and into the chain link fence. there was about 6 inches of water in the yard and the dog rode it out under the dog house. It was very eerie going out in the eye.

I hate hearing that. My dogs will NEVER be separated from me in an emergency. I'd rather ride it out and hope for the best than leave my dogs. It breaks my heart to think of how frightened that dog must have been.  :nometalk:

[mystery-ak]

Texas coastal residents urged to leave in 'strongest possible terms' as Hurricane Harvey intensifies in the Gulf
http://abcnews.go.com/US/texas-coastal-residents-urged-leave-strongest-terms-hurricane/story?id=49401529

[thackney]

Updated to a CAT 3.
@thackney you got that flood prevention system set up?

No, we don't expect the Brazos River to rise 50 ft.  It is at a near low now.

[txradioguy]

No, we don't expect the Brazos River to rise 50 ft.  It is at a near low now.

That's good to hear.  Regardless...stay safe.


Keeping my fingers crossed for all my friends in that area.